【新唐人2014年10月04日讯】香港市民和学生和平“占中”活动风起云涌，北京对此表现出极大不满，有关批评、恐吓的社论和文章连篇累牍。与此同时，大批有组织的“反占中”暴民，3号晚围攻和平在马路集会的市民，双方爆发流血冲突，警方却迟迟不增派人手。香港街头情势骤然紧张。那么，香港这次的“雨伞革命”，成功的希望有多大呢？
据香港媒体报导，10月3号晚上，大批有组织的反占中暴民，围攻和平在马路集会的香港市民。不过，警方却迟迟不增派人手对暴徒驱赶。入夜后过，有千名市民自发到场“反包围”暴徒，希望警方正式拘捕暴民。
港府说，截至晚间9时，共有131人受伤需住院。
当晚，香港学联宣布，搁置与政务司司长林郑月娥的对话。学联在脸书的声明指，政府与警方今天“纵容黑社会与爱字头暴力袭击和平占领者，无理打压占领运动，与民为敌，自断对话之路，后果自负”。学联认为，政府既然表明强硬在各个地方清场，呼吁港人“立刻前来保卫各个阵地，抗争到底，誓不低头！”
实际上，自港人9月28号走上街头抗议以来，大陆媒体对香港抗议活动的动态新闻，基本保持不报的姿态，但是中共主要官媒、党媒等，连日来，连篇累牍发布各种社论、评论文章，狠批香港占中行动，把和平的公民抗命活动，定性为“非法集会”。
不久前，外交部发言人华春莹也曾声称，抗议是“非法的”。北京驻港中联办发则强硬表态说，中共人大的决定“不容挑战”。
著名历史学家余英时表示，中共媒体和外交部、中联办接力批评香港占中，实际上都是中共当局对香港抗议民众的一个警告和威胁，因为香港它已经控制不住了。
著名历史学家余英时：015“它一向是威胁手段，它对中国所有城市、所有老百姓都是用这种统一方式，并不特别，不过在国内它可以完全控制，它有军队、有武警，到处都是，你没办法在街上游行，在香港它还没办法做到这一点，所以它就用言词来恐吓了。”
《美国之音》认为，中共媒体对香港占中的定性和口气，与1989年《人民日报》，对六四学生运动定性的“4.26”社论差不多。
25年前，数万学生连续几个星期占领了天安门广场。当时《人民日报》社论也是这么给北京天安门抗议者定性，不久之后，中共军队动用武力清场，据美国白宫的机密档案显示，当时有10,454人被杀。
当年的天安门学运以悲剧告终，今天的香港“雨伞革命”，成功的希望大吗？
生于北京的刘怀昭，曾亲身见证六四悲剧。与89民运比较，她认为，香港这场运动除了有更成熟的公民意识作支撑，更有一个关键的、也是有区别的地方：香港这场公民运动不是建立在理想主义基础上，而是有现实具体的目标，再加上它是一个制度有别的城市，成功达至诉求的希望很大。
现时在香港任职的自由撰稿人刘怀昭说：“香港人的目标很现实，我认为有谈判空间，就怕沟通渠道不畅，事态走向极端。”
前六四学运领袖唐柏桥表示，今天香港民众的抗议，让他恍惚听到了89学生的呐喊声，他说，89是一场民主运动，而“六四”则是一场血腥镇压。我们要让89民运在香港延续，开出民主的花朵，但不要“六四”悲剧在香港重演。
前六四学运领袖唐柏桥：“我也是89民运的参与者，89民运在天安门广场，从4月15号开始占领天安门广场，然后，一直到6月4号，差不多两个月左右，那个声势非常浩大，那个时候中共6月4号开枪，全球都谴责。所以大家不要担心中共会怎么样，中共如果采取暴力镇压的话，503后果会很严重。”
中国资深法学专家赵远明：“这个事件你看到越演越烈，学生民主要求，普选要求得不到真正的解决和回应，不光学生在里头，还有民众都在里头，事情越演越烈越难给它妥善的解决，所以我们看到占中这个事情翻天了。”
中国资深法学专家赵远明表示，目前和平占中已经演变成全民运动，全球声援，他呼吁港人要有追求民主的决心和毅力，占中运动最终必定会成功。
采访编辑/李韵 后制/肖颜
Success of Hong Kong Umbrella Revolution Hangs in Balance
Beijing authorities showed great dissatisfaction with Hong
Kong mounting peaceful Occupy Central activities, by
continuous criticism, intimidatory editorials and articles.
At the same time, a large number of organized anti-Occupy
Central mobs besieged the rally on the evening of
October 3, resulting in bloody conflict.
However, the police weren’t reinforced.
Suddenly the Hong Kong situation becomes tense.
Will the Hong Kong umbrella revolution be successful?
October 3, it＇s said that large numbers of organized anti-Occupy
Central mobs besieged peaceful rally people across the street.
However, the police were slow to increase manpower to drive
away the mobs.
In the evening, thousands of people spontaneously counter
encircled the mobs hoping for the police to formally arrest.
The Government said that as of 21pm 131 people were
hospitalized after injury.
That night, the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS)
announced to lay aside the dialogue with the Chief Secretary
of Administration Carrie Lam.
HKFS issued a statement on Face book: the government
and police would suffer the consequence after condoning
violent underworld organization attacks on peaceful people;
unreasonable suppression of the Occupy Central
movement and blocking the dialogue road by treating the
public as enemies.
HKFS called on Hong Kong people to protect each position
immediately and fight to the end without let up since the
Government has shown itself tough on clean up.”
In fact, the mainland media just don＇t report the Hong Kong
protest status since Hong Kong people marched on September
28.
But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official, party,
and other media published various editorials, review articles
non-stop to severely criticize Hong Kong Occupy Central
and characterized civil disobedience as illegal.
Recently, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying also
claimed it as illegal protest.
Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region issued a tough statement
that the CCP National People Congress＇s decision is
unchallengeable."
Famous mainland historian, Yu Yingshi, said that the criticism
of Occupy Central from CCP media, Foreign Ministry
and Liaison Office are all the warnings and threats to the
protesters from the CCP because they can＇t control Hong Kong.
Yu Yingshi:"they use such unified threats to all cities and
people in China. It＇s not special.
However, they can fully control because the armyand armed
police are everywhere so you can＇t march on the street.
They have to threaten Hong Kong verbally
because they don＇t have an army there.”
Voice of America believes that the CCP media＇s determination
and tone on Hong Kong is similar to the 1989 4.26 editorial
about June 4 student movement in People’s Daily.
25 years ago, tens of thousands of students occupied Tiananmen
Square for weeks.
At that time, People’s Daily editorial characterized Beijing
Tiananmen Square protesters like this.
Later, the Chinese military cleaned up by force.
According to White House confidential files, 10,454 people
were killed at that time.
The Tiananmen student movement ended in tragedy.
Will today’s Hong Kong umbrella revolution be successful?
Born in Beijing, Liu Huaizhao personally witnessed the June
4 tragedy.
Compared with the 89 pro-democracy movement, she believes
that this Hong Kong movement is supported by a more mature
civic sense.
The more critical and important thing is: Hong Kong civic
movement is based on a specific goal instead of idealism,
plus it has a different political system which makes
its success possible.
Current Hong Kong freelance writer, Liu Huaizhao said:
“Hong Kong people are very realistic.
I believe there is room for negotiation, but not sure whether
poor communication channels will make things go to the extreme."
Former June 4 student movement leader, Tang Baiqiao, said
today’s Hong Kong protest makes him dimly hear the 1989
students＇ cry.
He said, 89 is a democratic movement; but June 4 was a
bloody crackdown.
We will continue the 89 pro-democracy movement in Hong
Kong with democracy flowers, but no June 4 tragedy.
Tang Baiqiao:"I am a participator of pro-democracy movement.
We started occupy the Tiananmen Square, from April 15 until
June 4, almost two months or so as a blockbuster.
The CCP＇s fire on June 4 received global condemnation.
So we do not worry about what CCP will do because if they
suppress violently, the consequences will be very serious."
Chinese senior legal expert Zhao Yuanming: “It＇s fiercer
because the students＇ democratic request and the universal
suffrage demand can＇t get a response and solutions.
Now, not only students, but people participate as well.
The fiercer the thing is, the harder solution can be given.
So I believe the Occupy Central will raise the roof.”
Zhao Yuanming said the current Occupy has become a people＇s
movement with global solidarity.
He called on the Hong Kong people to have the determination
and perseverance to pursue democracy.
The Occupy Central movement will eventually be successful.
Interview & Edit/LiYun Post-Production/XiaoYan
