【新唐人2014年10月04日訊】香港市民和學生和平「佔中」活動風起雲湧，北京對此表現出極大不滿，有關批評、恐嚇的社論和文章連篇纍牘。與此同時，大批有組織的「反佔中」暴民，3號晚圍攻和平在馬路集會的市民，雙方爆發流血衝突，警方卻遲遲不增派人手。香港街頭情勢驟然緊張。那麼，香港這次的「雨傘革命」，成功的希望有多大呢？
據香港媒體報導，10月3號晚上，大批有組織的反佔中暴民，圍攻和平在馬路集會的香港市民。不過，警方卻遲遲不增派人手對暴徒驅趕。入夜後過，有千名市民自發到場「反包圍」暴徒，希望警方正式拘捕暴民。
港府說，截至晚間9時，共有131人受傷需住院。
當晚，香港學聯宣佈，擱置與政務司司長林鄭月娥的對話。學聯在臉書的聲明指，政府與警方今天「縱容黑社會與愛字頭暴力襲擊和平佔領者，無理打壓佔領運動，與民為敵，自斷對話之路，後果自負」。學聯認為，政府既然表明強硬在各個地方清場，呼籲港人「立刻前來保衛各個陣地，抗爭到底，誓不低頭！」
實際上，自港人9月28號走上街頭抗議以來，大陸媒體對香港抗議活動的動態新聞，基本保持不報的姿態，但是中共主要官媒、黨媒等，連日來，連篇纍牘發佈各種社論、評論文章，狠批香港佔中行動，把和平的公民抗命活動，定性為「非法集會」。
不久前，外交部發言人華春瑩也曾聲稱，抗議是「非法的」。北京駐港中聯辦發則強硬表態說，中共人大的決定「不容挑戰」。
著名歷史學家余英時表示，中共媒體和外交部、中聯辦接力批評香港佔中，實際上都是中共當局對香港抗議民眾的一個警告和威脅，因為香港它已經控制不住了。
著名歷史學家余英時：015「它一向是威脅手段，它對中國所有城市、所有老百姓都是用這種統一方式，並不特別，不過在國內它可以完全控制，它有軍隊、有武警，到處都是，你沒辦法在街上遊行，在香港它還沒辦法做到這一點，所以它就用言詞來恐嚇了。」
《美國之音》認為，中共媒體對香港佔中的定性和口氣，與1989年《人民日報》，對六四學生運動定性的「4.26」社論差不多。
25年前，數萬學生連續幾個星期佔領了天安門廣場。當時《人民日報》社論也是這麼給北京天安門抗議者定性，不久之後，中共軍隊動用武力清場，據美國白宮的機密檔案顯示，當時有10,454人被殺。
當年的天安門學運以悲劇告終，今天的香港「雨傘革命」，成功的希望大嗎？
生於北京的劉懷昭，曾親身見證六四悲劇。與89民運比較，她認為，香港這場運動除了有更成熟的公民意識作支撐，更有一個關鍵的、也是有區別的地方：香港這場公民運動不是建立在理想主義基礎上，而是有現實具體的目標，再加上它是一個制度有別的城市，成功達至訴求的希望很大。
現時在香港任職的自由撰稿人劉懷昭說：「香港人的目標很現實，我認為有談判空間，就怕溝通渠道不暢，事態走向極端。」
前六四學運領袖唐柏橋表示，今天香港民眾的抗議，讓他恍惚聽到了89學生的吶喊聲，他說，89是一場民主運動，而「六四」則是一場血腥鎮壓。我們要讓89民運在香港延續，開出民主的花朵，但不要「六四」悲劇在香港重演。
前六四學運領袖唐柏橋：「我也是89民運的參與者，89民運在天安門廣場，從4月15號開始佔領天安門廣場，然後，一直到6月4號，差不多兩個月左右，那個聲勢非常浩大，那個時候中共6月4號開槍，全球都譴責。所以大家不要擔心中共會怎麼樣，中共如果採取暴力鎮壓的話，503後果會很嚴重。」
中國資深法學專家趙遠明：「這個事件你看到越演越烈，學生民主要求，普選要求得不到真正的解決和回應，不光學生在裡頭，還有民眾都在裡頭，事情越演越烈越難給它妥善的解決，所以我們看到佔中這個事情翻天了。」
中國資深法學專家趙遠明表示，目前和平佔中已經演變成全民運動，全球聲援，他呼籲港人要有追求民主的決心和毅力，佔中運動最終必定會成功。
採訪編輯/李韻 後製/肖顏
Success of Hong Kong Umbrella Revolution Hangs in Balance
Beijing authorities showed great dissatisfaction with Hong
Kong mounting peaceful Occupy Central activities, by
continuous criticism, intimidatory editorials and articles.
At the same time, a large number of organized anti-Occupy
Central mobs besieged the rally on the evening of
October 3, resulting in bloody conflict.
However, the police weren’t reinforced.
Suddenly the Hong Kong situation becomes tense.
Will the Hong Kong umbrella revolution be successful?
October 3, it＇s said that large numbers of organized anti-Occupy
Central mobs besieged peaceful rally people across the street.
However, the police were slow to increase manpower to drive
away the mobs.
In the evening, thousands of people spontaneously counter
encircled the mobs hoping for the police to formally arrest.
The Government said that as of 21pm 131 people were
hospitalized after injury.
That night, the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS)
announced to lay aside the dialogue with the Chief Secretary
of Administration Carrie Lam.
HKFS issued a statement on Face book: the government
and police would suffer the consequence after condoning
violent underworld organization attacks on peaceful people;
unreasonable suppression of the Occupy Central
movement and blocking the dialogue road by treating the
public as enemies.
HKFS called on Hong Kong people to protect each position
immediately and fight to the end without let up since the
Government has shown itself tough on clean up.”
In fact, the mainland media just don＇t report the Hong Kong
protest status since Hong Kong people marched on September
28.
But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official, party,
and other media published various editorials, review articles
non-stop to severely criticize Hong Kong Occupy Central
and characterized civil disobedience as illegal.
Recently, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying also
claimed it as illegal protest.
Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region issued a tough statement
that the CCP National People Congress＇s decision is
unchallengeable."
Famous mainland historian, Yu Yingshi, said that the criticism
of Occupy Central from CCP media, Foreign Ministry
and Liaison Office are all the warnings and threats to the
protesters from the CCP because they can＇t control Hong Kong.
Yu Yingshi:"they use such unified threats to all cities and
people in China. It＇s not special.
However, they can fully control because the armyand armed
police are everywhere so you can＇t march on the street.
They have to threaten Hong Kong verbally
because they don＇t have an army there.”
Voice of America believes that the CCP media＇s determination
and tone on Hong Kong is similar to the 1989 4.26 editorial
about June 4 student movement in People’s Daily.
25 years ago, tens of thousands of students occupied Tiananmen
Square for weeks.
At that time, People’s Daily editorial characterized Beijing
Tiananmen Square protesters like this.
Later, the Chinese military cleaned up by force.
According to White House confidential files, 10,454 people
were killed at that time.
The Tiananmen student movement ended in tragedy.
Will today’s Hong Kong umbrella revolution be successful?
Born in Beijing, Liu Huaizhao personally witnessed the June
4 tragedy.
Compared with the 89 pro-democracy movement, she believes
that this Hong Kong movement is supported by a more mature
civic sense.
The more critical and important thing is: Hong Kong civic
movement is based on a specific goal instead of idealism,
plus it has a different political system which makes
its success possible.
Current Hong Kong freelance writer, Liu Huaizhao said:
“Hong Kong people are very realistic.
I believe there is room for negotiation, but not sure whether
poor communication channels will make things go to the extreme."
Former June 4 student movement leader, Tang Baiqiao, said
today’s Hong Kong protest makes him dimly hear the 1989
students＇ cry.
He said, 89 is a democratic movement; but June 4 was a
bloody crackdown.
We will continue the 89 pro-democracy movement in Hong
Kong with democracy flowers, but no June 4 tragedy.
Tang Baiqiao:"I am a participator of pro-democracy movement.
We started occupy the Tiananmen Square, from April 15 until
June 4, almost two months or so as a blockbuster.
The CCP＇s fire on June 4 received global condemnation.
So we do not worry about what CCP will do because if they
suppress violently, the consequences will be very serious."
Chinese senior legal expert Zhao Yuanming: “It＇s fiercer
because the students＇ democratic request and the universal
suffrage demand can＇t get a response and solutions.
Now, not only students, but people participate as well.
The fiercer the thing is, the harder solution can be given.
So I believe the Occupy Central will raise the roof.”
Zhao Yuanming said the current Occupy has become a people＇s
movement with global solidarity.
He called on the Hong Kong people to have the determination
and perseverance to pursue democracy.
The Occupy Central movement will eventually be successful.
Interview & Edit/LiYun Post-Production/XiaoYan
