【新唐人2014年07月12日讯】中国整体经济进一步下滑，地下银行业引发的信贷危机日益严重，随着贷款违约的增长，贷款担保业务风险不断加剧，许多贷款担保公司面临停业退场，甚至倒闭。而贷款担保公司大量倒闭，恐怕成为压倒信贷危机的最后一根稻草。
中国大陆自地下银行业引发信贷危机以来，浙江的温州已有近九成贷款担保公司停业。
投资一家贷款担保公司的浙江企业家王晓（音译）向媒体表示，贷款担保业务无疑风险巨大，随着贷款违约增长，他们的公司很快就会被迫关门。
大陆媒体6月12号报导，受实体经济资金链断裂的影响，四川省数十家融资性担保公司陷入深渊，35家担保公司面临停业。
而在广东的广州，由于银行收缩与担保公司的合作，再加上宏观经济不景气，超过半数的担保公司陷入艰难的寒冬。
北京“大军智库经济观察研究中心”主任仲大军表示，造成这些贷款担保公司倒闭的原因是资金紧张，特别是现金流严重缺乏。
北京大军智库经济观察研究中心主任仲大军：“一个是经济的活跃程度降低，买卖、生产制造各方面都减少以后，就影响到企业的收入，影响到企业资金的问题，再加上银行管理部门也加强了贷款，不太容易借到钱了，有些企业，还有搞金融的机构办不下去了，也就关门了。”
担保公司是指，个人或企业在向银行借款的时候，银行为了降低风险，不直接放款给个人，而是要求借款人找到第三方（担保公司或资质好的个人），作为信用担保。
不过，业内人士指出，担保业风险频出，是因为担保行业的盈利模式存在问题。根据“广州民间金融街”机关公开的数据，目前担保费率仅在2%~3%之间。
业内人士说，3%的手续费看起来不错，但一笔贷款违约，损失就相当于几十笔交易的利润总和。而，担保公司的资本金额起码要放大3倍以上，才能实现盈利。
据了解，目前中小企业通过银行直接融资的成本在7%左右，而通过担保融资，加上保费的总成本在10%左右，但通过小贷、或地下市场等融资渠道的成本，则达到20%以上。
北京《国情内参》期刊首席研究员巩胜利表示，中国整体资本运行成本高，是造成中小企业贷款担保成本居高不下的原因。他表示，党和政双重政府、以及7级政府构架的政策成本过高。
北京《国情内参》首席研究员巩胜利：“第二个就是金融运行成本高，比如贷款成本高，构架还有它的级别特别多。第三个成本高，是中国的产业和市场运行成本高，这对中小企业是最灾难性的。”
据不完全统计，大陆共有8000多家拥有经营牌照的贷款担保公司，其中大多数为小企业服务。而注册资本金达到10亿元以上的担保公司，仅50家左右，其中八成以上都是国资担保公司，民营的则不到10家。
仲大军：“就是两套体系吧，一套国有银行这个体系，一套就是民营企业融资体系。”
巩胜利：“第一，国有的商业银行贷款通常去了那些大型项目，对中小企业根本不管你这些，第二，国有的商业银行的贷款，它的利率是按国家的基准利率来运行，国家利率通常是比较低的。”
巩胜利说，中国国有大型（商业）银行都有自己的信贷公司。信贷公司和国有地方政府参合组成的公司，大部分出现负面资金，还有资金黑洞。
承接融资相关案件的浙江“攀远律师事务所”主任颜贻潘向媒体表示，贷款担保公司大量倒闭，可能成为压倒信贷危机的最后一根稻草。
巩胜利则表示，由于中国小型的担保信贷公司占国家货币运行的量不够大，如果真的大量倒闭，除非中国小型贷款担保政策持续收紧。
采访编辑/易如 后制/陈建铭
China Foresees Massive Closedown of Loan Companies?
As China’s economy continues to slide down, the credit
crunch caused by shadow banks also becomes more serious.
As loan defaults are occurring more frequently, risks in
making loan guarantees have risen sharply.
Many loan companies are on the edge of closedown
or even bankruptcy.
If massive closedown of loan companies really happens,
it can possibly become the last straw that turns a crisis
into a disaster.
It is reported that since China’s credit crunch started among
shadow banks, almost 90% of loan companies in Wenzhou
have stopped business.
Wang Xiao, a Zhejiang entrepreneur who invested in
a loan company, told media that loan guarantors are certainly
taking huge risks right now.
As more loan defaults occur, their company will soon
be forced to shut down.
Chinese media reported on June 12 that the breakup of the
funding chain in the real economy had put tens of financing
loan companies in a hopeless situation.
Thirty-five of them are about to shut down.
In Guangzhou, banks are trimming cooperation with
loan companies.
Along with the economic slump, over half of loan companies
are struggling in their business.
Zhong Dajun, director of Dajun Think Tank in Economic
Studies, said massive closedown of loan companies resulted
from lack of funds, especially the lack of cash flow.
Zhong Dajun:“First, economic activities are not
as active as before.
Drop in trade and production has negative effect on business
revenues and their available funds.
In addition, banks are tightening control over loans and
it’s harder to borrow money now.
Many companies and financial organs thus fail to survive
in such a situation.”
When individuals or companies borrow money from banks,
banks may not give a loan to the borrower directly
to reduce risks.
Instead, they request borrowers to find a third party
as the loan guarantor, which are usually loan companies
or individuals with good credibility.
On the other hand, those within the loan industry said risks
of loan companies are indeed due to a flawed profit model
of the whole industry.
According to statistics released by Guangzhou Folk
Financial Street, currently the guarantee fee rate is
only about 2% to 3%.
Insiders say, 3% of guarantee fee may sound good, but once
any single loan default happens, the loss can easily even up
profits from dozens of guarantee contracts.
As a result, loan companies can only make profits with
three times of capital funds as currently.
For small to middle-sized companies, the cost rate of direct
loans from banks is reported to be about 7%.
Through guarantors the cost is about 10%.
If through other financing methods such as micro-credit
companies or shadow banks, the cost can even exceed 20%.
Gong Shengli, chief researcher at Beijing’s Internal
Reference Magazine, commented that China has a high
cost rate of capital flow in general;
this is why small and middle-sized companies have to pay
too much to get loans.
Gong said, the dual party and administration system
and a 7-level government structure result in
an overly high policy cost.
Gong Shengli:“Besides that, cost of financial operations
such as making loans is too high.
The structure of the financial system is overly complicated.
In addition, the cost of agriculture and market operation
is also overly high.
This is the most disastrous one for small to
middle-sized companies.”
Incomplete statistics show that China currently has more
than 8000 licensed loan companies.
Most of them service small business owners.
Only 50 loan companies have a registered capital of more
than 1 billion Yuan ($160 million).
Among these giants, over 80% are state-owned and
only less than 10 are private ones.
Zhong Dajun:“There are two systems.
One is the state-owned bank system and the other one is
the financing system for private business.”
Gong Shengli:“First, state-owned financial banks mostly
give loans to those large-scale projects and they care little
for small or middle-sized business.
Second, state-owned banks give loans at the base interest
rate, which is pretty low in most cases.”
Gong said, all China’s major state-owned financial banks
have their own loan companies.
Those loan companies usually work together with
local governments.
However, most of their business result in deficits or
even capital black holes.
Yan Yipan, director of Panyuan Law Firm with expertise in
financing cases, told media that massive closedown of
loan guarantors can become the last straw that turns
credit crunch into a disaster.
Gong Shengli said, China’s small loan companies only
involve a minority of the state’s currency flow.
Therefore massive closedown will only happen if
the CCP government keeps tightening its policies
on micro-credit loans and guarantors.
Interview & Edit/YiRu Post-Production/Chen Jianmin
