【新唐人2014年07月12日訊】中國整體經濟進一步下滑，地下銀行業引發的信貸危機日益嚴重，隨著貸款違約的增長，貸款擔保業務風險不斷加劇，許多貸款擔保公司面臨停業退場，甚至倒閉。而貸款擔保公司大量倒閉，恐怕成為壓倒信貸危機的最後一根稻草。
中國大陸自地下銀行業引發信貸危機以來，浙江的溫州已有近九成貸款擔保公司停業。
投資一家貸款擔保公司的浙江企業家王曉（音譯）向媒體表示，貸款擔保業務無疑風險巨大，隨著貸款違約增長，他們的公司很快就會被迫關門。
大陸媒體6月12號報導，受實體經濟資金鏈斷裂的影響，四川省數十家融資性擔保公司陷入深淵，35家擔保公司面臨停業。
而在廣東的廣州，由於銀行收縮與擔保公司的合作，再加上宏觀經濟不景氣，超過半數的擔保公司陷入艱難的寒冬。
北京「大軍智庫經濟觀察研究中心」主任仲大軍表示，造成這些貸款擔保公司倒閉的原因是資金緊張，特別是現金流嚴重缺乏。
北京大軍智庫經濟觀察研究中心主任仲大軍：「一個是經濟的活躍程度降低，買賣、生產製造各方面都減少以後，就影響到企業的收入，影響到企業資金的問題，再加上銀行管理部門也加強了貸款，不太容易借到錢了，有些企業，還有搞金融的機構辦不下去了，也就關門了。」
擔保公司是指，個人或企業在向銀行借款的時候，銀行為了降低風險，不直接放款給個人，而是要求借款人找到第三方（擔保公司或資質好的個人），作為信用擔保。
不過，業內人士指出，擔保業風險頻出，是因為擔保行業的盈利模式存在問題。根據「廣州民間金融街」機關公開的數據，目前擔保費率僅在2%~3%之間。
業內人士說，3%的手續費看起來不錯，但一筆貸款違約，損失就相當於幾十筆交易的利潤總和。而，擔保公司的資本金額起碼要放大3倍以上，才能實現盈利。
據了解，目前中小企業通過銀行直接融資的成本在7%左右，而通過擔保融資，加上保費的總成本在10%左右，但通過小貸、或地下市場等融資渠道的成本，則達到20%以上。
北京《國情內參》期刊首席研究員鞏勝利表示，中國整體資本運行成本高，是造成中小企業貸款擔保成本居高不下的原因。他表示，黨和政雙重政府、以及7級政府構架的政策成本過高。
北京《國情內參》首席研究員鞏勝利：「第二個就是金融運行成本高，比如貸款成本高，構架還有它的級別特別多。第三個成本高，是中國的產業和市場運行成本高，這對中小企業是最災難性的。」
據不完全統計，大陸共有8000多家擁有經營牌照的貸款擔保公司，其中大多數為小企業服務。而註冊資本金達到10億元以上的擔保公司，僅50家左右，其中八成以上都是國資擔保公司，民營的則不到10家。
仲大軍：「就是兩套體系吧，一套國有銀行這個體系，一套就是民營企業融資體系。」
鞏勝利：「第一，國有的商業銀行貸款通常去了那些大型項目，對中小企業根本不管你這些，第二，國有的商業銀行的貸款，它的利率是按國家的基準利率來運行，國家利率通常是比較低的。」
鞏勝利說，中國國有大型（商業）銀行都有自己的信貸公司。信貸公司和國有地方政府參合組成的公司，大部分出現負面資金，還有資金黑洞。
承接融資相關案件的浙江「攀遠律師事務所」主任顏貽潘向媒體表示，貸款擔保公司大量倒閉，可能成為壓倒信貸危機的最後一根稻草。
鞏勝利則表示，由於中國小型的擔保信貸公司佔國家貨幣運行的量不夠大，如果真的大量倒閉，除非中國小型貸款擔保政策持續收緊。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/陳建銘
China Foresees Massive Closedown of Loan Companies?
As China’s economy continues to slide down, the credit
crunch caused by shadow banks also becomes more serious.
As loan defaults are occurring more frequently, risks in
making loan guarantees have risen sharply.
Many loan companies are on the edge of closedown
or even bankruptcy.
If massive closedown of loan companies really happens,
it can possibly become the last straw that turns a crisis
into a disaster.
It is reported that since China’s credit crunch started among
shadow banks, almost 90% of loan companies in Wenzhou
have stopped business.
Wang Xiao, a Zhejiang entrepreneur who invested in
a loan company, told media that loan guarantors are certainly
taking huge risks right now.
As more loan defaults occur, their company will soon
be forced to shut down.
Chinese media reported on June 12 that the breakup of the
funding chain in the real economy had put tens of financing
loan companies in a hopeless situation.
Thirty-five of them are about to shut down.
In Guangzhou, banks are trimming cooperation with
loan companies.
Along with the economic slump, over half of loan companies
are struggling in their business.
Zhong Dajun, director of Dajun Think Tank in Economic
Studies, said massive closedown of loan companies resulted
from lack of funds, especially the lack of cash flow.
Zhong Dajun:“First, economic activities are not
as active as before.
Drop in trade and production has negative effect on business
revenues and their available funds.
In addition, banks are tightening control over loans and
it’s harder to borrow money now.
Many companies and financial organs thus fail to survive
in such a situation.”
When individuals or companies borrow money from banks,
banks may not give a loan to the borrower directly
to reduce risks.
Instead, they request borrowers to find a third party
as the loan guarantor, which are usually loan companies
or individuals with good credibility.
On the other hand, those within the loan industry said risks
of loan companies are indeed due to a flawed profit model
of the whole industry.
According to statistics released by Guangzhou Folk
Financial Street, currently the guarantee fee rate is
only about 2% to 3%.
Insiders say, 3% of guarantee fee may sound good, but once
any single loan default happens, the loss can easily even up
profits from dozens of guarantee contracts.
As a result, loan companies can only make profits with
three times of capital funds as currently.
For small to middle-sized companies, the cost rate of direct
loans from banks is reported to be about 7%.
Through guarantors the cost is about 10%.
If through other financing methods such as micro-credit
companies or shadow banks, the cost can even exceed 20%.
Gong Shengli, chief researcher at Beijing’s Internal
Reference Magazine, commented that China has a high
cost rate of capital flow in general;
this is why small and middle-sized companies have to pay
too much to get loans.
Gong said, the dual party and administration system
and a 7-level government structure result in
an overly high policy cost.
Gong Shengli:“Besides that, cost of financial operations
such as making loans is too high.
The structure of the financial system is overly complicated.
In addition, the cost of agriculture and market operation
is also overly high.
This is the most disastrous one for small to
middle-sized companies.”
Incomplete statistics show that China currently has more
than 8000 licensed loan companies.
Most of them service small business owners.
Only 50 loan companies have a registered capital of more
than 1 billion Yuan ($160 million).
Among these giants, over 80% are state-owned and
only less than 10 are private ones.
Zhong Dajun:“There are two systems.
One is the state-owned bank system and the other one is
the financing system for private business.”
Gong Shengli:“First, state-owned financial banks mostly
give loans to those large-scale projects and they care little
for small or middle-sized business.
Second, state-owned banks give loans at the base interest
rate, which is pretty low in most cases.”
Gong said, all China’s major state-owned financial banks
have their own loan companies.
Those loan companies usually work together with
local governments.
However, most of their business result in deficits or
even capital black holes.
Yan Yipan, director of Panyuan Law Firm with expertise in
financing cases, told media that massive closedown of
loan guarantors can become the last straw that turns
credit crunch into a disaster.
Gong Shengli said, China’s small loan companies only
involve a minority of the state’s currency flow.
Therefore massive closedown will only happen if
the CCP government keeps tightening its policies
on micro-credit loans and guarantors.
Interview & Edit/YiRu Post-Production/Chen Jianmin
