【新唐人2014年05月28日讯】中国房地产市场持续低迷，北京5月中心城区的价格下调幅度超过了近郊，而中国35个重点城市住宅供大于求的城市超过8成，中国房产大亨潘石屹认为，中国的房地产就像马上要撞到冰山的“泰坦尼克号”。专家指出，由于信贷紧张、购房者观望，如果政府不救市，房价有可能大跌。
大陆《财新网》报导，截止5月21号，北京二手房住宅成交4269套，环比下跌9.5%，成交均价每平米29182元，环比下调2.8%。预计5月成交难以突破8000套，而4月全月的成交也只有7616套，按照一般的规律，月成交量下降到8000套以下的水准，显示市场低迷。
北京中原地产首席分析师张大伟：“现在北京这些信贷都是比较紧张的，然后北京供应自住房这种低价的保障房项目供应量比较大，所以大部分购房者都是观望的。未来的话，按照现在市场情况，如果说国家不大规模释放信贷的话，应该说今年肯定价格还会持续的下调，如果不会救市有可能跌幅大一些。”
报导说，从降价幅度看，5月北京中心城区的楼市价格下调幅度超过了近郊。同时，中心城区和外城四区二手住宅的议价空间也明显高于郊区。
北京链家地产经纪人冉德海：“稍微有点下调，下降大概1、2千一平米，卖房子比较多呀，这种是买方市场，所以说现在有可谈空间，限购，有北京、上海、广州那边都是，其他地方都撤销限购，投资的话最近没有必要投资房产，银行信贷比较紧。”
最近，北京房地产发展商“SOHO中国”的董事长潘石屹表示，对住宅市场不看好，他认为中国的房地产就是“泰坦尼克号”，马上就要撞到前面的冰山。撞到之后，不但是房地产行业的风险，更大的是金融行业的风险。
张大伟：“现在是一个买方市场了，因为资金紧张，销售放缓了，他们就一直很悲观。我觉得会有一些调整，但是说不至于像泰坦尼克碰到冰山之后是崩溃的，除非是中国经济不行了。如果中国经济不行的话，那各行各业都很惨。”
去年香港首富李嘉诚从中国“套现撤资”，今年年初，“SOHO中国”出售上海两处房产，回笼资金52亿3000万元。潘石屹也直言，信托、协力厂商理财、委托存款，利率都很高，而且开发商愿意用这样高的利率去贷款。实际上，(他们的)资金链也是很紧的。当房价下跌20-30%，这些问题就全部暴露出来了。
北京麦田房产经纪人张泽：“主要是因为银行银根非常紧，各方面放款都放不出来，有很多企业都非常缺钱，然后卖房子，报导说这个降几十万，那个降一百万，这些都是企业的一些老板，他把房子拿出来卖这么低。银行拿不出来钱，只有把房产拿出来变现。”
中国知名房地产商宋卫平在楼市日益低迷之际，出售了他所持有的“绿城中国控股有限公司”(Greentown China Holdings)的多数股权，并卸下董事长一职。他在新闻发布会上说，地方政府和中央政府对房地产市场干预过度。
张泽：“有很多房企，他们都说，好像要跌了，要大跌。他们说的也包含二线或三线城市，比如说大连、杭州跌的还是比较猛的。房产这方面是跟供需有很大的关系，二线、三线城市可能会跌微长一点时间。真正出问题都是一些小房企，他们降价也卖不出去嘛，说政府用了很多行政手段来干预房价。”
日前上海“易居研究院”发布的《2014年度35城商品房供求关系专题研究》报告显示，重点监测的35个重点城市中，2008年至去年，29个城市商品住宅呈现供大于求的关系。数据显示，截至4月底，重点监测的35个重点城市新建商品住宅库存总量为24891万平方米，环比增长2.6%，同比增长19.5%，创五年来新高。
采访编辑/熊斌 后制/钟元
China’s Housing Market May Collapse Without Bailout
The Chinese real estate market continues to be murky.
Property price cuts in Beijing are much higher than in the
neighboring cities during May.
The house oversupply is over 80 percent in 35 major cities.
Chinese real estate tycoon Pan Shiyi said that China’s real
estate is like the Titanic about to hit the iceberg.
Experts pointed out that house prices might go into a tailspin
without government rescue due to tight credit and buyer
hesitation.
Mainland Caixin Website reported that by May 21, Beijing
house transactions are 4269 sets, down by 9.5%;
The average transaction price is 29,182 yuan per square meter,
down by 2.8%.
It might be hard to break 8000 sets in May and transaction
numbers were only 7616 sets in April.
Transaction numbers below 8000 sets indicates
the market downturn.
Beijing Central Line real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei:
“Most house buyers are hesitating because Beijing credit is
relatively tight, but low-cost affordable houses are available.
The house market might go into a tailspin if there is no large
credit release and bailout with continuous price decline."
The report said the center city house price cuts exceeds that of
the suburbs in Beijing in May.
Meanwhile, the zone of bargaining for houses in the city center
and fourth district outside the city is higher than the suburbs.
Beijing Homelink Real Estate Broker Ran Dehai: “there is a
little drop – about one to two thousand per square meter
because it’s buyer’s market, so there is more room to bargain.
The purchase restriction is only in Beijing, Guangzhou and
Shanghai; not in other cities.
There is no need to invest in houses because credit is tight."
Recently, chairman of Beijing real estate developer SOHO
China Chairman Pan Shiyi said he is not optimistic on the
house market because it’s like the Titanic.
After the hit, the risk is not only in the real estate industry;
but more in the financial industry.
Zhang Dawei: “They have been very pessimistic over tight
money and slow sales, it’s totally a buyer’s market.
I believe there will be some adjustments, but not like the
Titanic hitting the iceberg unless China’s economy collapses.
All spending might be tragic if China’s economy is down."
Last Year, Hong Kong richest man Li Ka-shing withdrew from
property changing the assets into cash.
Early this year, SOHO China sold two properties in Shanghai
for cash of 5,230 million Yuan.
Pan Shiyi also said interest rates for trust, third party money
management and entrusted deposits are higher and can easily
be used as loans by the developers.
Their money chain is actually tight and problems are exposed
when the house prices drop by 20-30%.
Beijing Maitian Real Estate Broker Zhang Ze: “Money is tight
in the bank and hard to be loaned out because many enterprises
are short of cash.
Some enterprise bosses sold their own houses at low prices to
raise cash.
Banks don’t have liquidity so are having to use real estate."
China renowned estate Song Weiping sold his equity from
Greentown China Holdings Limited and stopped being the
chairman since the waning of the real estate industry.
He said in a news conference that local government and central
government intervention to the real estate market is over.
Zhang Ze: “Most Housing enterprises said the housing prices
seem to be down including in second-or third-tier cities such
as Dalian, Hangzhou where real estate fell massively.
The real estate industry has a big relationship
with demand and supply.
The real estate in second-tier and third-tier cities may fall slightly
over a long time.
Some small housing enterprises have real problems even with
lower prices.
It was said the government intervened over the price in many
administrative ways."
Based on a recent Shanghai E-House Research Institute report
of real estate supply and demand monitoring of 35 cities in
2014, there was oversupply in 29 cities between 2008 to 2013.
It shows that by the end of April, the new real estate inventory
in 35 major cities was 248.91 million square meters.
This is a growth of 2.6% and increase of 19.5%; the new
high number in 5 years.
Interview & Edit/Xiong Bin Post-Production/Zhong Yuan
