【新唐人2014年05月28日訊】中國房地產市場持續低迷，北京5月中心城區的價格下調幅度超過了近郊，而中國35個重點城市住宅供大於求的城市超過8成，中國房產大亨潘石屹認為，中國的房地產就像馬上要撞到冰山的「泰坦尼克號」。專家指出，由於信貸緊張、購房者觀望，如果政府不救市，房價有可能大跌。
大陸《財新網》報導，截止5月21號，北京二手房住宅成交4269套，環比下跌9.5%，成交均價每平米29182元，環比下調2.8%。預計5月成交難以突破8000套，而4月全月的成交也只有7616套，按照一般的規律，月成交量下降到8000套以下的水準，顯示市場低迷。
北京中原地產首席分析師張大偉：「現在北京這些信貸都是比較緊張的，然後北京供應自住房這種低價的保障房項目供應量比較大，所以大部分購房者都是觀望的。未來的話，按照現在市場情況，如果說國家不大規模釋放信貸的話，應該說今年肯定價格還會持續的下調，如果不會救市有可能跌幅大一些。」
報導說，從降價幅度看，5月北京中心城區的樓市價格下調幅度超過了近郊。同時，中心城區和外城四區二手住宅的議價空間也明顯高於郊區。
北京鏈家地產經紀人冉德海：「稍微有點下調，下降大概1、2千一平米，賣房子比較多呀，這種是買方市場，所以說現在有可談空間，限購，有北京、上海、廣州那邊都是，其他地方都撤銷限購，投資的話最近沒有必要投資房產，銀行信貸比較緊。」
最近，北京房地產發展商「SOHO中國」的董事長潘石屹表示，對住宅市場不看好，他認為中國的房地產就是「泰坦尼克號」，馬上就要撞到前面的冰山。撞到之後，不但是房地產行業的風險，更大的是金融行業的風險。
張大偉：「現在是一個買方市場了，因為資金緊張，銷售放緩了，他們就一直很悲觀。我覺得會有一些調整，但是說不至於像泰坦尼克碰到冰山之後是崩潰的，除非是中國經濟不行了。如果中國經濟不行的話，那各行各業都很慘。」
去年香港首富李嘉誠從中國「套現撤資」，今年年初，「SOHO中國」出售上海兩處房產，回籠資金52億3000萬元。潘石屹也直言，信託、協力廠商理財、委託存款，利率都很高，而且開發商願意用這樣高的利率去貸款。實際上，(他們的)資金鏈也是很緊的。當房價下跌20-30%，這些問題就全部暴露出來了。
北京麥田房產經紀人張澤：「主要是因為銀行銀根非常緊，各方面放款都放不出來，有很多企業都非常缺錢，然後賣房子，報導說這個降幾十萬，那個降一百萬，這些都是企業的一些老闆，他把房子拿出來賣這麼低。銀行拿不出來錢，只有把房產拿出來變現。」
中國知名房地產商宋衛平在樓市日益低迷之際，出售了他所持有的「綠城中國控股有限公司」(Greentown China Holdings)的多數股權，並卸下董事長一職。他在新聞發佈會上說，地方政府和中央政府對房地產市場干預過度。
張澤：「有很多房企，他們都說，好像要跌了，要大跌。他們說的也包含二線或三線城市，比如說大連、杭州跌的還是比較猛的。房產這方面是跟供需有很大的關係，二線、三線城市可能會跌微長一點時間。真正出問題都是一些小房企，他們降價也賣不出去嘛，說政府用了很多行政手段來干預房價。」
日前上海「易居研究院」發佈的《2014年度35城商品房供求關係專題研究》報告顯示，重點監測的35個重點城市中，2008年至去年，29個城市商品住宅呈現供大於求的關係。數據顯示，截至4月底，重點監測的35個重點城市新建商品住宅庫存總量為24891萬平方米，環比增長2.6%，同比增長19.5%，創五年來新高。
採訪編輯/熊斌 後製/鍾元
China’s Housing Market May Collapse Without Bailout
The Chinese real estate market continues to be murky.
Property price cuts in Beijing are much higher than in the
neighboring cities during May.
The house oversupply is over 80 percent in 35 major cities.
Chinese real estate tycoon Pan Shiyi said that China’s real
estate is like the Titanic about to hit the iceberg.
Experts pointed out that house prices might go into a tailspin
without government rescue due to tight credit and buyer
hesitation.
Mainland Caixin Website reported that by May 21, Beijing
house transactions are 4269 sets, down by 9.5%;
The average transaction price is 29,182 yuan per square meter,
down by 2.8%.
It might be hard to break 8000 sets in May and transaction
numbers were only 7616 sets in April.
Transaction numbers below 8000 sets indicates
the market downturn.
Beijing Central Line real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei:
“Most house buyers are hesitating because Beijing credit is
relatively tight, but low-cost affordable houses are available.
The house market might go into a tailspin if there is no large
credit release and bailout with continuous price decline."
The report said the center city house price cuts exceeds that of
the suburbs in Beijing in May.
Meanwhile, the zone of bargaining for houses in the city center
and fourth district outside the city is higher than the suburbs.
Beijing Homelink Real Estate Broker Ran Dehai: “there is a
little drop – about one to two thousand per square meter
because it’s buyer’s market, so there is more room to bargain.
The purchase restriction is only in Beijing, Guangzhou and
Shanghai; not in other cities.
There is no need to invest in houses because credit is tight."
Recently, chairman of Beijing real estate developer SOHO
China Chairman Pan Shiyi said he is not optimistic on the
house market because it’s like the Titanic.
After the hit, the risk is not only in the real estate industry;
but more in the financial industry.
Zhang Dawei: “They have been very pessimistic over tight
money and slow sales, it’s totally a buyer’s market.
I believe there will be some adjustments, but not like the
Titanic hitting the iceberg unless China’s economy collapses.
All spending might be tragic if China’s economy is down."
Last Year, Hong Kong richest man Li Ka-shing withdrew from
property changing the assets into cash.
Early this year, SOHO China sold two properties in Shanghai
for cash of 5,230 million Yuan.
Pan Shiyi also said interest rates for trust, third party money
management and entrusted deposits are higher and can easily
be used as loans by the developers.
Their money chain is actually tight and problems are exposed
when the house prices drop by 20-30%.
Beijing Maitian Real Estate Broker Zhang Ze: “Money is tight
in the bank and hard to be loaned out because many enterprises
are short of cash.
Some enterprise bosses sold their own houses at low prices to
raise cash.
Banks don’t have liquidity so are having to use real estate."
China renowned estate Song Weiping sold his equity from
Greentown China Holdings Limited and stopped being the
chairman since the waning of the real estate industry.
He said in a news conference that local government and central
government intervention to the real estate market is over.
Zhang Ze: “Most Housing enterprises said the housing prices
seem to be down including in second-or third-tier cities such
as Dalian, Hangzhou where real estate fell massively.
The real estate industry has a big relationship
with demand and supply.
The real estate in second-tier and third-tier cities may fall slightly
over a long time.
Some small housing enterprises have real problems even with
lower prices.
It was said the government intervened over the price in many
administrative ways."
Based on a recent Shanghai E-House Research Institute report
of real estate supply and demand monitoring of 35 cities in
2014, there was oversupply in 29 cities between 2008 to 2013.
It shows that by the end of April, the new real estate inventory
in 35 major cities was 248.91 million square meters.
This is a growth of 2.6% and increase of 19.5%; the new
high number in 5 years.
Interview & Edit/Xiong Bin Post-Production/Zhong Yuan
