【新唐人2014年05月22日讯】进入2014年，中国房地产巨大的存量、低迷的销售、急降的成交量窒息着整个市场。而挣扎的房企，更推出五花八门的促销活动。日前，北京推出了“零首付”楼盘。那么，作为一线城市的北京出现“零首付”说明什么问题？与美国当年次贷危机前出现“零首付”有什么异同？推出“零首付”，能盘活现在的房市吗？下面听听专家的分析。
大陆媒体20号报导，位于北京亦庄的“珠江四季悦城”推出“全盘无首付”促销政策，成为北京一线城市中首个“零首付”楼盘。销售人员介绍，购房者可以获取金融支持，以及其他金融服务的优惠。
在大北京区域（包括燕郊、香河、固安等地），低价刺激购房者出手的促销楼盘也日益增多。
早在“五一”前夕，广州天河区的一些开发商，已经打出“零首付入住天河”的宣传口号。
北京师范大学MBA导师、经济专栏作家段绍译：“现在是房地产泡沫破灭的前夕，所以很多人他也知道这个地产泡沫要破灭了，他们用这种促销方法早一点能够把房子卖掉，能够减少未来房地产泡沫破灭给自己带来的损失。”
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“实际上中国2线、3线城市楼市的崩盘已经在发生，现在看来1线城市、像北京的房地产开发商也挺不住了。在中国实际泡沫这么大的情况下，银行给他零首付放贷，这意味着巨大的风险。”
2007年3月，美国爆发次贷危机。当时民主党为促进住房拥有率，放松了贷款的要求，一些贷款机构推出了“零首付”和“零文件”的贷款方式。贷款人可以在没有资金的情况下，只要证明有收入，无需提供任何有关偿还能力的证明，就可购房。
中国财经金融评论家余丰慧撰文表示，中国内地房价正在走低，房地产正在进入冰冻低迷期，在这个时候一些房企竟然开展“零首付”促销活动，这个风险比美国次贷危机还要大。
美国“南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院”教授谢田表示，当年，美国房地产泡沫和“零首付”开始大量出现，几乎是同时进行。
谢田：“但是，美国那些零首付，实质上是针对一些穷人家庭、低端的房子。而在中国北京出现、这些实际上是北京一线城市、价位相当高的房地产，也出现零首付的话，可以看出中国房地产市场的压力远远比（当年）美国大的多、严峻的多。”
在此之前，出现多个三、四线城市的房企自掏腰包，为购房者垫首付，以期加快周转，提高去化率。
“中原地产”项目部总经理黄韬的博客文章指出：今年前几个月楼市的成交量并不理想，回升速度也比较缓慢， 开发商需要用各种促销的方式来消化库存。再加上今年银行放贷收紧，这使得房企更多需要靠走量来回笼资金。
那么推出“零首付”，会不会盘活现在的房市？刺激老百姓去抢购房子？
谢田：“我估计效果不会太大， 每个人看到这种情况，降价在2、3线城市已经大幅度开始了，一线城市现在也已经开始，零首付意味着开发商急于脱手。在地产市场、任何市场都这样，崩盘的时候，或大幅度降价开始的时候，人们会采取一种观望的态度，期待市场的进一步下跌和崩盘。”
“北京师范大学”MBA导师、经济专栏作家段绍译表示，房地产泡沫误导大家，认为只有买房子是最赚钱的，他认为，现在抢购房子不重要，因为中国并不缺房子。
段绍译：“我的建议就是赶快把房子卖掉，我那个别墅区，70%的房子外面是老鼠，20%的房子住的是保姆，10%的房子才是房子的主人住在那里。这个房子的泡沫早就应该破灭了。”
段绍译预言，从现在开始的未来两年里，中国的房子泡沫会逐渐的破灭。
而谢田表示，“零首付” 是房地产开发商急于脱手卖掉房子，而给出的一种补贴，实际上就是一种降价，也就是房地产开始崩盘了。
采访编辑/易如 后制/钟元
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Beijing Real Estate- Zero Down Payment Desperation
Anchor
Since 2014, the Chinese property market has been suffocated
with a glut of real estate inventory, sluggish sales, and a sharp
drop in transaction volume.
The market is awash with various promotional activities.
Recently, ‘Zero Down’ was launched in Beijing.
What is the significance of the Zero Down in the first-tier
cities such as Beijing?
How different is the Beijing’s Zero Down compared to the Zero
Down during the subprime mortgage crisis of the U.S.?
Will the Zero Down revitalize the housing market?
The following is our experts’ analyses.
Mainland media reported on the 20th that the first Zero Down
payment was shown in Beijing.
Real estate agents proposed that buyers will get financial
support as well as other discounts.
In the Greater Beijing area, lower-cost promotions were also
heavily promoted recently.
Prior to May 1, developers in Guangzhou also advertised
slogans such as“Move in with zero down payment”.
Duan Shaoyi, Beijing Normal University MBA instructor and
economic columnist: “It is the eve of the real estate bubble
burst, many people are aware of it.
They are hoping that the promotion will push up sales and
reduce the losses in the future bubble burst.”
Professor Frank Xie, University of South Carolina Aiken
School of Business: “The market crash has actually already
started in the 2nd and 3rd tier cities.
It looks like the first tier cities such as Beijing can no longer
sustain the bubble either.
The Zero Down lending from the bank signals a huge risk.”
In March 2007 when the U.S. subprime crisis erupted,
the“zero down payment” and “zero documents” were initiated
by then Democratic Party to promote homeownership rates
and to relax lending requirements.
Lenders were allowed to purchase houses with no funds,
no proof of ability to repay, only proof of income.
China financial critic Yu Fenghui wrote that while the housing
prices are falling, real estate is entering the frozen downturn,
the “zero down payment ”is running a greater risk than the
U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
Professor Frank Xie indicates that back then, the U.S. housing
bubble and “zero down payment” appeared almost simultaneously.
Professor Frank Xie:“The zero down payment in the United
States was targeting essentially the poor and the low-end houses.
Whereas in China, the‘zero down’appears in the high price
properties of Beijing.
That means the pressure on China’s real estate market is far
more severe than what the U.S. had endured then.”
Earlier, there have been many developers in third and fourth
tier cities pay for the “down payment” for buyers in order to
speed up the inventory turnover and improve sales.
A general manager of a real estate company, Huang Tao,
pointed out on his blog: The transaction volume has been
sluggish for the past few months.
The recovery is slow.
Developers have tried all types of promotions to push up the
sales.
The tightening of bank lending this year forces businesses to
rely heavily on the total sales to recover their funds.
Will the zero down payment stimulate the current housing
market and sales?
Frank Xie:“I doubt the benefits of the measure. Everyone sees
that the price cut is big in the second and third tier cities.
The first tier cities have also started, even with the zero down
payment,
which means that developers are anxious to get rid
of their inventories.
It is a norm in the crash of any market, including the housing
market, that people will wait and wait during the big price cut,
and expect further decline and finally collapse of the market.”
Beijing Normal University MBA instructor Duan Shaoyi
indicates that the real estate bubble had misled the Chinese
to believe that only dealing in houses will profit the most.
He thinks otherwise, because houses are abundant in China.
Duan Shaoyi: “My advice is to sell the house as soon as
possible.
In the place where I live, 70% of the houses are occupied by
mice, 20% by house nannies, and only 10% by the real owners.
This housing bubble should have burst long ago.”
Duan Shaoyi predicts that in two years, the housing bubble in
China will bust.
Frank Xie says that in fact, zero down payment shows the real
estate developers are eager to get rid of the houses,
and it is a form of price cut,
which means the collapse of the real estate has started.
