【新唐人2014年05月22日訊】進入2014年，中國房地產巨大的存量、低迷的銷售、急降的成交量窒息著整個市場。而掙扎的房企，更推出五花八門的促銷活動。日前，北京推出了「零首付」樓盤。那麼，作為一線城市的北京出現「零首付」說明甚麼問題？與美國當年次貸危機前出現「零首付」有甚麼異同？推出「零首付」，能盤活現在的房市嗎？下面聽聽專家的分析。
大陸媒體20號報導，位於北京亦莊的「珠江四季悅城」推出「全盤無首付」促銷政策，成為北京一線城市中首個「零首付」樓盤。銷售人員介紹，購房者可以獲取金融支持，以及其他金融服務的優惠。
在大北京區域（包括燕郊、香河、固安等地），低價刺激購房者出手的促銷樓盤也日益增多。
早在「五一」前夕，廣州天河區的一些開發商，已經打出「零首付入住天河」的宣傳口號。
北京師範大學MBA導師、經濟專欄作家段紹譯：「現在是房地產泡沫破滅的前夕，所以很多人他也知道這個地產泡沫要破滅了，他們用這種促銷方法早一點能夠把房子賣掉，能夠減少未來房地產泡沫破滅給自己帶來的損失。」
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「實際上中國2線、3線城市樓市的崩盤已經在發生，現在看來1線城市、像北京的房地產開發商也挺不住了。在中國實際泡沫這麼大的情況下，銀行給他零首付放貸，這意味著巨大的風險。」
2007年3月，美國爆發次貸危機。當時民主黨為促進住房擁有率，放鬆了貸款的要求，一些貸款機構推出了「零首付」和「零文件」的貸款方式。貸款人可以在沒有資金的情況下，只要證明有收入，無需提供任何有關償還能力的證明，就可購房。
中國財經金融評論家余豐慧撰文表示，中國內地房價正在走低，房地產正在進入冰凍低迷期，在這個時候一些房企竟然開展「零首付」促銷活動，這個風險比美國次貸危機還要大。
美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田表示，當年，美國房地產泡沫和「零首付」開始大量出現，幾乎是同時進行。
謝田：「但是，美國那些零首付，實質上是針對一些窮人家庭、低端的房子。而在中國北京出現、這些實際上是北京一線城市、價位相當高的房地產，也出現零首付的話，可以看出中國房地產市場的壓力遠遠比（當年）美國大的多、嚴峻的多。」
在此之前，出現多個三、四線城市的房企自掏腰包，為購房者墊首付，以期加快周轉，提高去化率。
「中原地產」項目部總經理黃韜的博客文章指出：今年前幾個月樓市的成交量並不理想，回升速度也比較緩慢， 開發商需要用各種促銷的方式來消化庫存。再加上今年銀行放貸收緊，這使得房企更多需要靠走量來回籠資金。
那麼推出「零首付」，會不會盤活現在的房市？刺激老百姓去搶購房子？
謝田：「我估計效果不會太大， 每個人看到這種情況，降價在2、3線城市已經大幅度開始了，一線城市現在也已經開始，零首付意味著開發商急於脫手。在地產市場、任何市場都這樣，崩盤的時候，或大幅度降價開始的時候，人們會採取一種觀望的態度，期待市場的進一步下跌和崩盤。」
「北京師範大學」MBA導師、經濟專欄作家段紹譯表示，房地產泡沫誤導大家，認為只有買房子是最賺錢的，他認為，現在搶購房子不重要，因為中國並不缺房子。
段紹譯：「我的建議就是趕快把房子賣掉，我那個別墅區，70%的房子外面是老鼠，20%的房子住的是保姆，10%的房子才是房子的主人住在那裏。這個房子的泡沫早就應該破滅了。」
段紹譯預言，從現在開始的未來兩年裡，中國的房子泡沫會逐漸的破滅。
而謝田表示，「零首付」 是房地產開發商急於脫手賣掉房子，而給出的一種補貼，實際上就是一種降價，也就是房地產開始崩盤了。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/鍾元
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Beijing Real Estate- Zero Down Payment Desperation
Anchor
Since 2014, the Chinese property market has been suffocated
with a glut of real estate inventory, sluggish sales, and a sharp
drop in transaction volume.
The market is awash with various promotional activities.
Recently, ‘Zero Down’ was launched in Beijing.
What is the significance of the Zero Down in the first-tier
cities such as Beijing?
How different is the Beijing’s Zero Down compared to the Zero
Down during the subprime mortgage crisis of the U.S.?
Will the Zero Down revitalize the housing market?
The following is our experts’ analyses.
Mainland media reported on the 20th that the first Zero Down
payment was shown in Beijing.
Real estate agents proposed that buyers will get financial
support as well as other discounts.
In the Greater Beijing area, lower-cost promotions were also
heavily promoted recently.
Prior to May 1, developers in Guangzhou also advertised
slogans such as“Move in with zero down payment”.
Duan Shaoyi, Beijing Normal University MBA instructor and
economic columnist: “It is the eve of the real estate bubble
burst, many people are aware of it.
They are hoping that the promotion will push up sales and
reduce the losses in the future bubble burst.”
Professor Frank Xie, University of South Carolina Aiken
School of Business: “The market crash has actually already
started in the 2nd and 3rd tier cities.
It looks like the first tier cities such as Beijing can no longer
sustain the bubble either.
The Zero Down lending from the bank signals a huge risk.”
In March 2007 when the U.S. subprime crisis erupted,
the“zero down payment” and “zero documents” were initiated
by then Democratic Party to promote homeownership rates
and to relax lending requirements.
Lenders were allowed to purchase houses with no funds,
no proof of ability to repay, only proof of income.
China financial critic Yu Fenghui wrote that while the housing
prices are falling, real estate is entering the frozen downturn,
the “zero down payment ”is running a greater risk than the
U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
Professor Frank Xie indicates that back then, the U.S. housing
bubble and “zero down payment” appeared almost simultaneously.
Professor Frank Xie:“The zero down payment in the United
States was targeting essentially the poor and the low-end houses.
Whereas in China, the‘zero down’appears in the high price
properties of Beijing.
That means the pressure on China’s real estate market is far
more severe than what the U.S. had endured then.”
Earlier, there have been many developers in third and fourth
tier cities pay for the “down payment” for buyers in order to
speed up the inventory turnover and improve sales.
A general manager of a real estate company, Huang Tao,
pointed out on his blog: The transaction volume has been
sluggish for the past few months.
The recovery is slow.
Developers have tried all types of promotions to push up the
sales.
The tightening of bank lending this year forces businesses to
rely heavily on the total sales to recover their funds.
Will the zero down payment stimulate the current housing
market and sales?
Frank Xie:“I doubt the benefits of the measure. Everyone sees
that the price cut is big in the second and third tier cities.
The first tier cities have also started, even with the zero down
payment,
which means that developers are anxious to get rid
of their inventories.
It is a norm in the crash of any market, including the housing
market, that people will wait and wait during the big price cut,
and expect further decline and finally collapse of the market.”
Beijing Normal University MBA instructor Duan Shaoyi
indicates that the real estate bubble had misled the Chinese
to believe that only dealing in houses will profit the most.
He thinks otherwise, because houses are abundant in China.
Duan Shaoyi: “My advice is to sell the house as soon as
possible.
In the place where I live, 70% of the houses are occupied by
mice, 20% by house nannies, and only 10% by the real owners.
This housing bubble should have burst long ago.”
Duan Shaoyi predicts that in two years, the housing bubble in
China will bust.
Frank Xie says that in fact, zero down payment shows the real
estate developers are eager to get rid of the houses,
and it is a form of price cut,
which means the collapse of the real estate has started.
