【新唐人2014年05月07日讯】自朝鲜二号人物张成泽被处决后，有关朝鲜即将崩溃的猜测不断扩散。日前日本媒体披露，中共军队为朝鲜政权垮台制定了应急方案。分析认为，北京一定会在朝鲜金家王朝垮台的第一时间出兵，然后控制整个朝鲜的局势，并且可能扶植金正恩的哥哥重新执政。
《日本共同社》5月4号报导说，一份被泄露的中共军队内部文件显示，军方专家已设想朝鲜有可能陷入体制崩溃的危机，正在研究在两国边境加大监视力度，和设置难民营等紧急应对方案。
《共同社》指出，这份文件于去年夏季撰写，去年年底，就爆出朝鲜第二号人物张成泽因打算发动政变，推翻领导人金正恩，而被处决的事件。
中共军方专家假设朝鲜陷入体制崩溃危机时，中共将设立多个专门应对小组，一旦难民等涌入，中方计划在国境周边各县设立多个可容纳1500人的难民营，保护政界和军界重要人物的人身安全。
同时，将外逃的朝鲜重要人物转移到“监视营”，防止他们进一步指挥和参与可能会损害中国国家利益的军事行动。
美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编辑伍凡指出，中共应变朝鲜崩溃的应急方案，已经制定了多年，因为朝鲜发展核武器对中国造成威胁，特别是去年金正恩把亲中共的姑父张成泽处死之后。
美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编辑伍凡：“他(金正恩)把亲华派的人杀了，造成中国和朝鲜关系非常紧张，金正恩统治下去很困难，他把能够用的人都杀了，等于最后会众叛亲离，众叛亲离以后就会引起内乱。实际上中国准备了另外一套班子来接金正恩，把他那些人全部关起来。”
时事评论员蓝述指出，北京一向把朝鲜视作中国的一部分，因此不会看着朝鲜倒台，因为一旦朝鲜政权垮台，代表民主自由世界与极权世界的分界线，将向中国边境逼近，同时，朝鲜发生的一些惨无人道的极权专制手段一旦被暴露出来，等于暴露了中共自己。
时事评论员蓝述：“因为朝鲜政权，完完全全是根据马列基本教义来的，那马列和共产党的基本教义是中共目前仍然离不开的一个基本信条。所以为了维护北京政权的稳定，北京一定会在金家王朝垮台的第一时间出兵，然后控制整个北韩的局势。”
伍凡：“它（中共）不是说设立一个集中营把那些领导人关起来吗，那就把金正恩的哥哥送回朝鲜去执政，再培养一批人重新执政，它不会让朝鲜给韩国统一。让他的哥哥出来，走上一个经济改革，对外开放，但还是由金家这个王朝另外一个人来执政，跟中共走。中共很可能把朝鲜变成东北的第四省。我想中共现在要作这个打算，一旦那里有风吹草动，马上军队过去，把金正恩整个抓起来。”
金正恩的哥哥金正男长期住在北京和澳门两地，韩国传媒曾引述政府消息人士的话说，金正恩被内定为接班人后，他身边的人就开始策划暗杀金正男，而中方提出警告说﹕“在中国的地盘决不可动金正男”。
俄罗斯最高权威的国家级研究机构“世界经济与国际事务研究”，早在2011年11月发布报告，报告中把朝鲜政权崩溃视为既定事实。而随着当年12月朝鲜领导人金正日死亡，朝鲜的崩溃提速。
香港《争鸣》杂志今年的1月号也曾报导说，1月中共军委已从北京军区调派第38集团军、和第27集团军共3个机械化师部队进驻中、朝边界，防止有突发事件发生及大批朝鲜难民涌入中国。
报导中，朝鲜问题研究所的安赞一博士说：“中国采用了机动装备，和适应朝鲜地形的滑雪部队等，这很明确的是应对朝鲜剧变的演练。”
而被泄露的文件还显示，中共军队内部已正式展开危机管理，以应对所谓“政变”等突发状况。另据报导，中方还考虑到美国等所谓“军事强国”，可能以反恐为借口进入中国境内。
采访编辑/李韵 后制/郭敬
Chinese Military’s Plans to Cope With North Korea’s Collapse
Speculation of North Korea’s imminent collapse is spreading
since the No 2. North Korean Jang Sung-taek’s execution.
It is said by Japanese Media that the Chinese military has a
contingency plan to respond to this possible collapse.
It is believed that Beijing will control the whole North Korea
situation with troops initially and foster Kim Jong-un’s
brother to come into power.
On May 4 Japan’s Kyodo News reported a leaked military
document suggesting China’s military experts have set up
a number of measures in preparation for a possible regime
collapse in North Korea.
These measures include increased surveillance along
selected border areas and the establishment of camps, etc.
Kyodo News said the document was published last summer.
At the end of last year, the plans disrupted when the
second most powerful man Jang Sung-taek was executed
for launching a coup to overthrow leader Kim Jong-un.
The document noted that concentration camps for 1500
people each be established at various locations along the
border, with protection plans in place to prevent the
assassination of key military and political figures.
Key figures must be moved to a separate investigation
facility so they cannot command any military activity nor
join with other forces (already in China), it read,
American Chinese magazine China Affairs editor Wu Fan
pointed out that China’s contingency plan has been in place
for a few years to cope with the collapse of North Korea
because of the threat from North Korea’s nuclear weapons.
Especially since last year when Kim Jong-un executed
his pro-Chinese uncle Jang Sung-taek.
Wu Fan:" He (Kim Jong-Un) killed the pro-Chinese people,
making for a very tense relationship between China and
North Korea, so his rule is very difficult.
It means isolation that will cause civil strife since he
killed the people he can count on.
Actually China prepared another team to take over
Kim Jong-un and detain those people."
Political commentator Lan Shu said that Beijing has always
regarded North Korea as part of China;
It will not look at North Korea’s downfall because the regime
collapse means the boundary between the democracy, free
world and the totalitarian world is closer to China.
Meanwhile, the exposure of the cruel totalitarianism ways in
North Korea is equal to exposing Chinese Communist Party.
Political commentator Lan Shu: “Because the North Korean
regime is completely based on the doctrines of Marxism and
Leninism is inseparable from the Chinese Communist Party.
To make the Beijing regime stable, Beijing will dispatch
the troops initially to control the whole North Korean
situation after the Kim dynasty’s collapse."
Wu Fan:"It (the Chinese Communist Party-CCP) mentioned
setting up a concentration camp to detain those officials.
It means they will send Kim Jong-un’s brother back to North
Korea in power and foster some new people in power stopping
North Korea and South Korea’s unity.
They will let his brother rule with an economic reform and
opening to the outside managed by but still ruled by
another person from the Kim dynasty.
The CCP is likely to make North Korea the fourth
northeastern province.
I believe the CCP now intends to send the army to arrest
Kim Jong-un immediately once there are signs of trouble."
Kim Jong-un’s brother Kim Jong-nam lived in both
Beijing and Macau for a long time.
South Korean media quoted government sources that once
named as a successor to Kim Jong-un, the people around him
planned to assassinate Kim Jong-nam.
But China warned that nobody can touch
Kim Jong Nam in China.
Russia’s most authoritative national research institutions, the
World Economy and International Affairs released a report in
November 2011 which considered the North Korean regime
collapse a done deal.
North Korea’s collapse accelerated with the death of North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il in December 2011.
In January 2014 Hong Kong Contend magazine reported that
the CCP Central Military Commission deployed the 38th and
27th Army; three mechanized infantry divisions from Beijing
Military stationed at the North Korea and China border.
This was to prevent the occurrence of unexpected events and
a large number of North Korean refugees arriving in China.
Korean Institute Dr. An Zanyi said: It is obvious a drill to
cope with North Korea’s collapse.
China will use mobility equipment and ski troops that
adapt to the North Korean terrain.
The leaked documents also show that Chinese military have
launched an internal crisis management plan to cope with
unexpected situations such as a coup and so on.
According to the report, China also considered that a military
power such as the U.S. may enter China using the excuse of
anti-terrorism.
Interview & Edit/Li Yun Post-Production/Guo Jing
