【新唐人2014年05月07日訊】自朝鮮二號人物張成澤被處決後，有關朝鮮即將崩潰的猜測不斷擴散。日前日本媒體披露，中共軍隊為朝鮮政權垮臺制定了應急方案。分析認為，北京一定會在朝鮮金家王朝垮臺的第一時間出兵，然後控制整個朝鮮的局勢，並且可能扶植金正恩的哥哥重新執政。
《日本共同社》5月4號報導說，一份被泄露的中共軍隊內部文件顯示，軍方專家已設想朝鮮有可能陷入體制崩潰的危機，正在研究在兩國邊境加大監視力度，和設置難民營等緊急應對方案。
《共同社》指出，這份文件於去年夏季撰寫，去年年底，就爆出朝鮮第二號人物張成澤因打算髮動政變，推翻領導人金正恩，而被處決的事件。
中共軍方專家假設朝鮮陷入體制崩潰危機時，中共將設立多個專門應對小組，一旦難民等湧入，中方計劃在國境周邊各縣設立多個可容納1500人的難民營，保護政界和軍界重要人物的人身安全。
同時，將外逃的朝鮮重要人物轉移到「監視營」，防止他們進一步指揮和參與可能會損害中國國家利益的軍事行動。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡指出，中共應變朝鮮崩潰的應急方案，已經制定了多年，因為朝鮮發展核武器對中國造成威脅，特別是去年金正恩把親中共的姑父張成澤處死之後。
美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編輯伍凡：「他(金正恩)把親華派的人殺了，造成中國和朝鮮關係非常緊張，金正恩統治下去很困難，他把能夠用的人都殺了，等於最後會眾叛親離，眾叛親離以後就會引起內亂。實際上中國準備了另外一套班子來接金正恩，把他那些人全部關起來。」
時事評論員藍述指出，北京一向把朝鮮視作中國的一部分，因此不會看著朝鮮倒臺，因為一旦朝鮮政權垮臺，代表民主自由世界與極權世界的分界線，將向中國邊境逼近，同時，朝鮮發生的一些慘無人道的極權專制手段一旦被暴露出來，等於暴露了中共自己。
時事評論員藍述：「因為朝鮮政權，完完全全是根據馬列基本教義來的，那馬列和共產黨的基本教義是中共目前仍然離不開的一個基本信條。所以為了維護北京政權的穩定，北京一定會在金家王朝垮臺的第一時間出兵，然後控制整個北韓的局勢。」
伍凡：「它（中共）不是說設立一個集中營把那些領導人關起來嗎，那就把金正恩的哥哥送回朝鮮去執政，再培養一批人重新執政，它不會讓朝鮮給韓國統一。讓他的哥哥出來，走上一個經濟改革，對外開放，但還是由金家這個王朝另外一個人來執政，跟中共走。中共很可能把朝鮮變成東北的第四省。我想中共現在要作這個打算，一旦那裏有風吹草動，馬上軍隊過去，把金正恩整個抓起來。」
金正恩的哥哥金正男長期住在北京和澳門兩地，韓國傳媒曾引述政府消息人士的話說，金正恩被內定為接班人後，他身邊的人就開始策劃暗殺金正男，而中方提出警告說﹕「在中國的地盤決不可動金正男」。
俄羅斯最高權威的國家級研究機構「世界經濟與國際事務研究」，早在2011年11月發佈報告，報告中把朝鮮政權崩潰視為既定事實。而隨著當年12月朝鮮領導人金正日死亡，朝鮮的崩潰提速。
香港《爭鳴》雜誌今年的1月號也曾報導說，1月中共軍委已從北京軍區調派第38集團軍、和第27集團軍共3個機械化師部隊進駐中、朝邊界，防止有突發事件發生及大批朝鮮難民湧入中國。
報導中，朝鮮問題研究所的安讚一博士說：「中國採用了機動裝備，和適應朝鮮地形的滑雪部隊等，這很明確的是應對朝鮮劇變的演練。」
而被泄露的文件還顯示，中共軍隊內部已正式展開危機管理，以應對所謂「政變」等突發狀況。另據報導，中方還考慮到美國等所謂「軍事強國」，可能以反恐為藉口進入中國境內。
採訪編輯/李韻 後製/郭敬
Chinese Military’s Plans to Cope With North Korea’s Collapse
Speculation of North Korea’s imminent collapse is spreading
since the No 2. North Korean Jang Sung-taek’s execution.
It is said by Japanese Media that the Chinese military has a
contingency plan to respond to this possible collapse.
It is believed that Beijing will control the whole North Korea
situation with troops initially and foster Kim Jong-un’s
brother to come into power.
On May 4 Japan’s Kyodo News reported a leaked military
document suggesting China’s military experts have set up
a number of measures in preparation for a possible regime
collapse in North Korea.
These measures include increased surveillance along
selected border areas and the establishment of camps, etc.
Kyodo News said the document was published last summer.
At the end of last year, the plans disrupted when the
second most powerful man Jang Sung-taek was executed
for launching a coup to overthrow leader Kim Jong-un.
The document noted that concentration camps for 1500
people each be established at various locations along the
border, with protection plans in place to prevent the
assassination of key military and political figures.
Key figures must be moved to a separate investigation
facility so they cannot command any military activity nor
join with other forces (already in China), it read,
American Chinese magazine China Affairs editor Wu Fan
pointed out that China’s contingency plan has been in place
for a few years to cope with the collapse of North Korea
because of the threat from North Korea’s nuclear weapons.
Especially since last year when Kim Jong-un executed
his pro-Chinese uncle Jang Sung-taek.
Wu Fan:" He (Kim Jong-Un) killed the pro-Chinese people,
making for a very tense relationship between China and
North Korea, so his rule is very difficult.
It means isolation that will cause civil strife since he
killed the people he can count on.
Actually China prepared another team to take over
Kim Jong-un and detain those people."
Political commentator Lan Shu said that Beijing has always
regarded North Korea as part of China;
It will not look at North Korea’s downfall because the regime
collapse means the boundary between the democracy, free
world and the totalitarian world is closer to China.
Meanwhile, the exposure of the cruel totalitarianism ways in
North Korea is equal to exposing Chinese Communist Party.
Political commentator Lan Shu: “Because the North Korean
regime is completely based on the doctrines of Marxism and
Leninism is inseparable from the Chinese Communist Party.
To make the Beijing regime stable, Beijing will dispatch
the troops initially to control the whole North Korean
situation after the Kim dynasty’s collapse."
Wu Fan:"It (the Chinese Communist Party-CCP) mentioned
setting up a concentration camp to detain those officials.
It means they will send Kim Jong-un’s brother back to North
Korea in power and foster some new people in power stopping
North Korea and South Korea’s unity.
They will let his brother rule with an economic reform and
opening to the outside managed by but still ruled by
another person from the Kim dynasty.
The CCP is likely to make North Korea the fourth
northeastern province.
I believe the CCP now intends to send the army to arrest
Kim Jong-un immediately once there are signs of trouble."
Kim Jong-un’s brother Kim Jong-nam lived in both
Beijing and Macau for a long time.
South Korean media quoted government sources that once
named as a successor to Kim Jong-un, the people around him
planned to assassinate Kim Jong-nam.
But China warned that nobody can touch
Kim Jong Nam in China.
Russia’s most authoritative national research institutions, the
World Economy and International Affairs released a report in
November 2011 which considered the North Korean regime
collapse a done deal.
North Korea’s collapse accelerated with the death of North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il in December 2011.
In January 2014 Hong Kong Contend magazine reported that
the CCP Central Military Commission deployed the 38th and
27th Army; three mechanized infantry divisions from Beijing
Military stationed at the North Korea and China border.
This was to prevent the occurrence of unexpected events and
a large number of North Korean refugees arriving in China.
Korean Institute Dr. An Zanyi said: It is obvious a drill to
cope with North Korea’s collapse.
China will use mobility equipment and ski troops that
adapt to the North Korean terrain.
The leaked documents also show that Chinese military have
launched an internal crisis management plan to cope with
unexpected situations such as a coup and so on.
According to the report, China also considered that a military
power such as the U.S. may enter China using the excuse of
anti-terrorism.
Interview & Edit/Li Yun Post-Production/Guo Jing
