【新唐人2014年04月03日讯】在中国大陆有着“三峡库首第一县”之称的湖北省宜昌市秭归县，最近在3天内连续发生两次4级以上地震，并引发余震数百次。地质学家分析，两次地震明显属于“水库诱发地震”，与附近三峡大坝有直接关联。未来不排除发生破坏性强震的可能。
据中国地震台网站公布，3月30号0点24分，湖北省宜昌市秭归县发生4.7级地震，地震的位置距离三峡大坝仅有20多公里。这是继27号发生4.3级地震后，秭归县同一地点再次发生超过规模4级的地震。截至3月30号中午，两次地震已经引发余震330多次。
据资料显示，秭归县是三峡库区首县，县城与三峡大坝附坝连为一体。地质专家分析，秭归县地震应该属于“水库诱发地震”。湖北省地震局“水库诱发地震”研究室主任王秋良，在接受上海《东方早报》采访时也表示，两次地震发生与地质构造的断裂和三峡大坝蓄水有关联，后续还可能发生强有感地震。
原四川地矿局区域地质调查队总工程师范晓：“就是说三峡水库从2003年蓄水以来，水库诱发地震的活动是非常明显的，都是跟水库水位的涨落有很密切的关系，它整个地震活动的频度、次数和强度，都比三峡水库蓄水以前有非常明显的增加。”
据《２１世纪经济报导》援引秭归县志的记录报导说，1985年前的1000多年间，秭归县境内能被直接感知的地震仅有6次。但在三峡开始蓄水的2003年，秭归县有记录的地震竟发生了18次，其中15次发生在水库蓄水基本完成后。此外，据不完全统计，同属于三峡库区的巴东县，从三峡蓄水后到2011年，发生3级以下地震多达1400多次，去年12月更是发生了5.1级地震。
原四川地矿局区域地质调查队总工程师范晓指出，水库诱发地震最主要的危险时期，是在水库蓄水到正常高水位以后的若干年，而三峡水库目前正好处于这一时期。
范晓：“三峡水库从2003年蓄水，包括2008年蓄水到高水位，到现在为止，应该说它处在一个最危险的时候。而且它刚好有地震活动带、地质断裂带穿过这个水库。而且从历史上来看，穿过水库的地震断裂带也曾经发生过6级以上的地震，所以它是具备了水库诱发破坏性强震的条件。”
尽管中共官媒报导声称，由于震级不高，秭归县地震暂时没有造成人员伤亡，对三峡大坝也没有造成影响，范晓认为，两次地震应该受到高度重视。
范晓：“尽管三峡大坝本身设计的抗震能力比较高，一般六、七级地震它不会对大坝本身的工程造成很严重的破坏，但是因为库区是地质灾害的高发区，所以一旦产生破坏性的强震，它有可能引发库区范围内的比如说崩塌、滑坡这类的地质灾害，有可能会对三峡库区，包括大坝产生影响的，所以需要加强有关的预防措施。”
在三峡工程上马前，众多科学家、水利、地质专家曾经就工程的可行性进行过论证，当时，包括水科院高级工程师金永堂，和“清华大学”教授黄万里等，不下上百名专家学者，都对修建三峡工程表示强烈反对，并指出三峡工程必将造成无法挽回的巨大危害，但当局对所有反对意见却置若罔闻。
范晓：“因为中国像这种类似的大型工程的论证，它是作为一种政治的目标，先把它确定下来，然后再搞所谓的论证，也是要为这个工程上马服务的，它并没有一个科学民主的决策过程。为了工程的上马，它把这些负面的影响，或者不同的论证意见置之不顾，有意的回避。可能更多的是一种政治上的需要，当然也包括利益集团它的利益方面需求。”
当三峡工程造成的生态破坏、地质灾害、长江中下游干旱、泥沙淤积、气候异常等各种危害开始浮现时，人们才发现，黄万里等专家的预言已经逐一应验，甚至后果更为严重。
采访编辑/张天宇 后制/陈建铭
Three Gorges Dam Triggers Frequent Seismic Activities
Zigui County of Hubei Province, so-called “The first county
of the Three Gorges Dam," has experienced two earthquakes
of magnitude above 4.0 and hundreds of aftershocks in the
past three days.
Geoscientists believe these two earthquakes were clearly
induced by the reservoirs of the Three Gorges Dam and
are indications of future devastating earthquakes.
According to the China Earthquake Network Center, at 0:24
on March 30, a 4.7 earthquake took place in Zigui,
20 kilometers away from the Three Gorges Dam.
This is the second earthquake after the 4.3 earthquake on
the 27th in Zigui.
As of March 30 at noon, 330 aftershocks have been triggered.
Zigui County is the county situated closest to the Three Gorges
Dam area.
Geoscientists analyze that Zigui earthquakes were induced by
the reservoir.
Hubei Earthquake Administration research director
Wang Qiuliang told the Shanghai media that he believed
these quakes were associated with the Dam sitting on top of
two major fault lines and the water pressure of the Dam.
He also warned of the possibility of stronger quakes.
Fan Xiao, former chief engineer of Department of Geology and
Mineral, Sichuan Province: “Since 2003 when the Three Gorges Dam
started to operate, the reservoir-induced seismic activity has
been very obvious, and closely related to the changes of water level.
The frequency and intensity of the seismic activity had been
significantly increased before the construction."
According to 21st Century Business Herald report,
Zigui County Records showed prior to 1986, there were a total
of six directly perceived earthquakes in the past 1,000 years.
Since the Three Gorges reservoir began operation in 2003,
there have been 18 registered earthquakes in Zigui, with 15 of
them right after the completion of the Dam.
Incomplete records showed another nearby county associated
with the Three Gorges Dam, Badong County, has had more
than 1,400 registered earthquakes below magnitude of 3.0.
An earthquake of 5.1 took place last December.
Engineer Fan Xiao indicates that the reservoir-induced seismic
activity is typically at its highest a few years after the routine
high water level of reservoirs.
The Three Gorges Dam is at that most critical stage now.
Fan Xiao: “Since the Three Gorges Dam took up water in
2003, including the water level at the high level of 2008,
the region is at the most dangerous time, especially with the
fault lines underneath the Dam.
Historically, earthquakes above magnitude of 6.0 have taken
place around the reservoir area sitting on top of the fault lines.
Therefore, the Zigui area is prone to reservoir-induced
earthquakes of catastrophic nature."
The Communist official media reported that the quakes did not
cause any damage to the Dam or any casualties.
However, Fan Xiao warns of the implications of these two quakes.
Fan Xiao: “Even though the Three Gorges Dam was constructed
with high seismic impact tolerance to earthquake magnitude of
6 to 7,
however, dam area is typically prone to geological disasters.
Any devastating earthquake could cause disastrous landslides
and damage the Three Gorges Dam.
Preventive measures ought to be strengthened."
Prior to the launch of the Three Gorges Project, numerous
scientists and experts in water conservancy and geology had
conducted feasibility studies.
More than 100 experts, including Institute of Water Resources
and Hydropower Research senior engineer Jin Yongtang, and
Tsinghua University Professor Huang Wanli, had all strongly
opposed the Three Gorges Project for it´s bound to cause
enormous irreparable damage.
However, the Communist authorities turned a deaf ear to all
objections.
Fan Xiao: “Feasibility studies in China, in particular for major
large projects, are for political purposes.
Once it´s politically determined, the studies are then conducted
in service of the political goal.
It is not part of a scientific and democratic process.
To launch the projects, the negative or opposing suggestions
and conclusions are often intentionally ignored,
just to fulfill its political need and interest."
The Three Gorges Project has caused ecological damage,
geological disasters, drought and sedimentation in the
downstream of Yangtze River, and climate anomalies.
These emerging disasters are what the experts such as Huang
Wanli had warned of.
More serious consequences are bound to happen.
Interview/Zhang Tianyu Post-Production/Chen Jianming
