【新唐人2014年04月03日訊】在中國大陸有著「三峽庫首第一縣」之稱的湖北省宜昌市秭歸縣，最近在3天內連續發生兩次4級以上地震，並引發餘震數百次。地質學家分析，兩次地震明顯屬於「水庫誘發地震」，與附近三峽大壩有直接關聯。未來不排除發生破壞性強震的可能。
據中國地震臺網站公布，3月30號0點24分，湖北省宜昌市秭歸縣發生4.7級地震，地震的位置距離三峽大壩僅有20多公里。這是繼27號發生4.3級地震後，秭歸縣同一地點再次發生超過規模4級的地震。截至3月30號中午，兩次地震已經引發餘震330多次。
據資料顯示，秭歸縣是三峽庫區首縣，縣城與三峽大壩附壩連為一體。地質專家分析，秭歸縣地震應該屬於「水庫誘發地震」。湖北省地震局「水庫誘發地震」研究室主任王秋良，在接受上海《東方早報》採訪時也表示，兩次地震發生與地質構造的斷裂和三峽大壩蓄水有關聯，後續還可能發生強有感地震。
原四川地礦局區域地質調查隊總工程師範曉：「就是說三峽水庫從2003年蓄水以來，水庫誘發地震的活動是非常明顯的，都是跟水庫水位的漲落有很密切的關係，它整個地震活動的頻度、次數和強度，都比三峽水庫蓄水以前有非常明顯的增加。」
據《２１世紀經濟報導》援引秭歸縣誌的記錄報導說，1985年前的1000多年間，秭歸縣境內能被直接感知的地震僅有6次。但在三峽開始蓄水的2003年，秭歸縣有記錄的地震竟發生了18次，其中15次發生在水庫蓄水基本完成後。此外，據不完全統計，同屬於三峽庫區的巴東縣，從三峽蓄水後到2011年，發生3級以下地震多達1400多次，去年12月更是發生了5.1級地震。
原四川地礦局區域地質調查隊總工程師范曉指出，水庫誘發地震最主要的危險時期，是在水庫蓄水到正常高水位以後的若干年，而三峽水庫目前正好處於這一時期。
范曉：「三峽水庫從2003年蓄水，包括2008年蓄水到高水位，到現在為止，應該說它處在一個最危險的時候。而且它剛好有地震活動帶、地質斷裂帶穿過這個水庫。而且從歷史上來看，穿過水庫的地震斷裂帶也曾經發生過6級以上的地震，所以它是具備了水庫誘發破壞性強震的條件。」
儘管中共官媒報導聲稱，由於震級不高，秭歸縣地震暫時沒有造成人員傷亡，對三峽大壩也沒有造成影響，範曉認為，兩次地震應該受到高度重視。
范曉：「儘管三峽大壩本身設計的抗震能力比較高，一般六、七級地震它不會對大壩本身的工程造成很嚴重的破壞，但是因為庫區是地質災害的高發區，所以一旦產生破壞性的強震，它有可能引發庫區範圍內的比如說崩塌、滑坡這類的地質災害，有可能會對三峽庫區，包括大壩產生影響的，所以需要加強有關的預防措施。」
在三峽工程上馬前，眾多科學家、水利、地質專家曾經就工程的可行性進行過論證，當時，包括水科院高級工程師金永堂，和「清華大學」教授黃萬里等，不下上百名專家學者，都對修建三峽工程表示強烈反對，並指出三峽工程必將造成無法挽回的巨大危害，但當局對所有反對意見卻置若罔聞。
范曉：「因為中國像這種類似的大型工程的論證，它是作為一種政治的目標，先把它確定下來，然後再搞所謂的論證，也是要為這個工程上馬服務的，它並沒有一個科學民主的決策過程。為了工程的上馬，它把這些負面的影響，或者不同的論證意見置之不顧，有意的迴避。可能更多的是一種政治上的需要，當然也包括利益集團它的利益方面需求。」
當三峽工程造成的生態破壞、地質災害、長江中下游乾旱、泥沙淤積、氣候異常等各種危害開始浮現時，人們才發現，黃萬里等專家的預言已經逐一應驗，甚至後果更為嚴重。
採訪編輯/張天宇 後製/陳建銘
Three Gorges Dam Triggers Frequent Seismic Activities
Zigui County of Hubei Province, so-called “The first county
of the Three Gorges Dam," has experienced two earthquakes
of magnitude above 4.0 and hundreds of aftershocks in the
past three days.
Geoscientists believe these two earthquakes were clearly
induced by the reservoirs of the Three Gorges Dam and
are indications of future devastating earthquakes.
According to the China Earthquake Network Center, at 0:24
on March 30, a 4.7 earthquake took place in Zigui,
20 kilometers away from the Three Gorges Dam.
This is the second earthquake after the 4.3 earthquake on
the 27th in Zigui.
As of March 30 at noon, 330 aftershocks have been triggered.
Zigui County is the county situated closest to the Three Gorges
Dam area.
Geoscientists analyze that Zigui earthquakes were induced by
the reservoir.
Hubei Earthquake Administration research director
Wang Qiuliang told the Shanghai media that he believed
these quakes were associated with the Dam sitting on top of
two major fault lines and the water pressure of the Dam.
He also warned of the possibility of stronger quakes.
Fan Xiao, former chief engineer of Department of Geology and
Mineral, Sichuan Province: “Since 2003 when the Three Gorges Dam
started to operate, the reservoir-induced seismic activity has
been very obvious, and closely related to the changes of water level.
The frequency and intensity of the seismic activity had been
significantly increased before the construction."
According to 21st Century Business Herald report,
Zigui County Records showed prior to 1986, there were a total
of six directly perceived earthquakes in the past 1,000 years.
Since the Three Gorges reservoir began operation in 2003,
there have been 18 registered earthquakes in Zigui, with 15 of
them right after the completion of the Dam.
Incomplete records showed another nearby county associated
with the Three Gorges Dam, Badong County, has had more
than 1,400 registered earthquakes below magnitude of 3.0.
An earthquake of 5.1 took place last December.
Engineer Fan Xiao indicates that the reservoir-induced seismic
activity is typically at its highest a few years after the routine
high water level of reservoirs.
The Three Gorges Dam is at that most critical stage now.
Fan Xiao: “Since the Three Gorges Dam took up water in
2003, including the water level at the high level of 2008,
the region is at the most dangerous time, especially with the
fault lines underneath the Dam.
Historically, earthquakes above magnitude of 6.0 have taken
place around the reservoir area sitting on top of the fault lines.
Therefore, the Zigui area is prone to reservoir-induced
earthquakes of catastrophic nature."
The Communist official media reported that the quakes did not
cause any damage to the Dam or any casualties.
However, Fan Xiao warns of the implications of these two quakes.
Fan Xiao: “Even though the Three Gorges Dam was constructed
with high seismic impact tolerance to earthquake magnitude of
6 to 7,
however, dam area is typically prone to geological disasters.
Any devastating earthquake could cause disastrous landslides
and damage the Three Gorges Dam.
Preventive measures ought to be strengthened."
Prior to the launch of the Three Gorges Project, numerous
scientists and experts in water conservancy and geology had
conducted feasibility studies.
More than 100 experts, including Institute of Water Resources
and Hydropower Research senior engineer Jin Yongtang, and
Tsinghua University Professor Huang Wanli, had all strongly
opposed the Three Gorges Project for it´s bound to cause
enormous irreparable damage.
However, the Communist authorities turned a deaf ear to all
objections.
Fan Xiao: “Feasibility studies in China, in particular for major
large projects, are for political purposes.
Once it´s politically determined, the studies are then conducted
in service of the political goal.
It is not part of a scientific and democratic process.
To launch the projects, the negative or opposing suggestions
and conclusions are often intentionally ignored,
just to fulfill its political need and interest."
The Three Gorges Project has caused ecological damage,
geological disasters, drought and sedimentation in the
downstream of Yangtze River, and climate anomalies.
These emerging disasters are what the experts such as Huang
Wanli had warned of.
More serious consequences are bound to happen.
Interview/Zhang Tianyu Post-Production/Chen Jianming
