【新唐人2014年04月01日讯】大陆房地产市场二、三线城市房市降价潮来袭，一线城市、龙头房企、国企也在劫难逃，一线城市释放出降价打折信号，全面放价走量，被称为楼市避风港的深圳，新推出的楼盘中最低价格，相比去年已经下降每平方米3000元，而金融机构也开始紧缩房产融资。那么为什么国际上早已预估的泡沫破灭现在才开始，我们来看看专家分析。
资料显示，截至3月27号，今年已经有超过75家国营房地产公司，股权或资产专案在挂牌转让，市场价值超过100亿元人民币。
北京、上海等一线城市，从去年9月开始二手房价格一直下跌，而新开盘的住房中不管处在哪个位置，也在平价推出。
继广州、北京新开盘住房平价售卖后，被称为“楼市避风港”的深圳新盘价格也开始下调，3月新推出的楼盘—水木丹华，最低价格相比去年已经下降每平方米3000元。
《证券日报》报导说， 3月份全中国土地市场骤然降温，截至3月25号，一线城市土地出让金收入只有84.5亿元，去年同期这一数字高达320亿元。同时，大部分标竿房地产企业拿地也出现放缓迹象，一季度10大标竿房地产企业，合计拿地额为776亿元，相当于去年拿地额3885亿元的20%。
广东《南方周末》报指出，一些二、三线城市的房企正试图透过大幅降价，快速退出房市地雷区，已经出现逃命潮。“绿城集团”行政总裁寿柏年提出警告，今年，一些小型房地产公司将会割肉逃生。
另外，金融机构眼看房市风险升温，也开始紧缩融资。年初“兴业银行”总行向下级机构下发指导，要求暂停房地夹层融资，和房地产供应链金融业务。媒体形容，“兴业银行”是房地产大限来时，从森林里逃跑的第一只鸟。
北京《央视》财经评论员牛刀：“从去年开始，已经没什么人接盘，没什么人接盘大家都降低价格卖，现在问题是中国房地产现在已经发生了逆转，当人民币在升值的时候，人民预期房价还要涨，所以全部冲进房地产，现在人民币在开始贬值，好多人就退出来了，房价肯定要跌。”
北京天则经济研究所副所长冯兴元：“可能跟经济形势有一定关系，房地产商已经撑了很多年了，大部分房企还是高负债的，因为地方的民间借贷很高，比如说一部分放到房地产那儿去，那说明房地产的资金面已经非常紧张，一些地方的房地产商撑不住是正常的。”
在142家A股上市房企中，从55家已发布的年报看，整体资产负债率继续上升。55家房企中，29家经营现金流净额为负值。荣盛发展、北京城建、信达地产和大名城4家房地产公司，经营活动现金流净额，超过负30亿元。地产“老大哥”万科，现金净流量同比猛减146%，创近五年新低。大型房企金融街、北京城建、冠城大通现金净流量同比降幅都在100%以上。
两年前，国际社会和中国国内不少经济专家，已经开始大谈中国房地产出现泡沫现象，而且很快就会崩盘，可是前两年中国房价却不断攀升，那么为什么这个坚挺的泡沫，在两年后的今天才开始露出爆破迹象呢？
牛刀：“中国是个专政主义国家，在房地产发生问题的时候，央行、包括政府动员一切的手段来维护这个房价，他不按市场来走, 每次碰到房地产市场要调整的时候，他们在放贷、发钱往外放，大家一看是政府在秘密保护泡沫，所以大家拚命冲进泡沫当中，现在他保不住了嘛，现在美元在出逃，出逃以后它保不住了。”
面对居高不下的房价，地产巨头“万通集团”董事长冯仑跳出来喊冤，冯仑强调，官方长期以来把地价抬高，有政府在踢房企屁股，房价能不高吗？
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/李勇
Mainland Property Prices Drop Dramatically
Along with the arrival of property price cuts in the second and third-tier cities,the same plight has spilled over in to the first-tier cities,top property developers and state-owned enterprises.The property price is largely lowering. Even in Shenzhen City,a place called property investment haven ,the lowest price of new properties, has reduced by 3000 Yuan(US$ 500) per square meter compared to last year.Financial institutions also followed suit and began to reduce their property financing.So why does the prematurely predicted bubble break so late? Let ‘s see what the experts are saying.
According to the available public information, till March 27 of this year,
more than 75 state-owned property development companies have attempted to sell stock shares or assets.Their total market value was around 10 billion RMB.
(US$ 1.6 billion)
In the first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai,since last September, the second-hand property prices have been continually dropping downwards.
While new properties anywhere elseare sold on the market at a flat price.
Following the flat prices of new properties in Guangzhou and Beijing,the new property price in Shenzhen City, called property investment haven, began to decrease.The lowest price of new property Shuimudanhua just on the market in March,has diminished by 3000 yuan per square meter comparing it with the lowest prices of last year.
Securities Daily reported, in March the national land market abruptly came to a halt. Up till March 25, the revenues of selling land in first-tire cities, is just 8.45 billion RMB,whereas compared to the same period of last year,
it was 32 billion RMB.Meanwhile, the land grab of most benchmark property enterprises, also shows signs of slowing down.In the first season of this year, the top ten property companies obtained land with a total value of 77.6 billion RMB (US$ 12 billion),which is around 20% of the 388.5 billion RMB ( US$ 62 billion) in the same period of last year.
Guangdong-based Southern Weekly newspaper points out,some property companies in second- and third-tier cities,are trying to rapidly retreat from the property market, because they are finding many minefields along the way.
Shou Bonian of Greentown Real Estate Group Company Ltd CEO,gave a warning recently, this year will see some small companies losing money if they are to survive this rocky period.
In addition to this, in view of the conspicuous high risk within the property market, financial institutions also began to control the financing supply
to the property market.Early this year, Industrial Bank headquarters has required all branch offices,to stop the property mezzanine finance business and Real estate, supplying chain finance business.Media describes the Industrial Bank, as the first bird to fleefrom its nest,as the net closes in and the property market moves closer to its own doomsday.
Beijing CCTV financial commentator Mr Niu Dao:"Since last year, almost no buyers dare to buy in to the property market, hence the property price slump we are now experiencing has dawned.The current issue, is that China ‘s property has had a massive turn around. When RMB goes up, it is expected that the property prices
will increase and then many people will rush into the property market.Yet when RMB goes down, many people retreat from the property market, and hence the price then goes down."
Deputy Director Mr Feng Xingyuan of Beijing-based Unirule Economic Inistitute:
“This might relate to the situation of economics to some extent.The property developers have sustained it for many years.Most of the property development companies have high debt rates.Considering the high interest rates of the private lending market,if some loans are used for property investment, then this shows the severity of the situation to the funding property market,and some of the property developers are so close to their limit of funds."
Of the 142 public listed property companies in A Share Market,according to the published annual reports of 55 companies,their overall asset-liability ratios are continually going up.Of these 55 companies, 29 companies have negative values in the area of operating net cash flow. Four companies, including RiseSun Real Estate Development Company Ltd., Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Company Ltd, Cinda Real Estate Company Ltd, and Great- town Holdings Ltd, all have negative net cash flow of more than 3 billion RMB.Number one property company Vanke Company, also has a dramatically reduced net cash flow,
on average 146 percent less than last year ‘s cash flow,which is the lowest on record for the past five years.Large-scale property developers, including Financial Street Holdings Company Ltd,Beijing Urban Construction Investment
& Development Company Ltd,and Citychamp Dartong Company Ltd, have also reduced
their net cash flow of over 100% compared to last year.
Two years ago, many domestic and international economic experts, began describing how China ‘s property market bubble would soon burst.However, during the recent two years, the property price was still climbing.So how has the bubble managed to remain so robust and only just started to give signs of bursting?
Mr Niu Dao: “China is a dictatorship country.When the property field experiences serious problems,the Central Bank and the Government will mobilise all means to secure the property price.They don ‘t follow the market law. Each time when the property market is prepared to make an adjustment,the government then goes and increases the monetary supply and loans.People know the government secretly protects the bubble,so they all rush into the centre of the bubble.Now however, the government can not secure the bubble.US Dollars are also fleeing the country and this triggers the impossibility of securing the bubble."
Beijing Vantone Real Estate Company Ltd is one of the premium property developers in China.As for high property prices, the Board of Directors to Vantone Mr Feng Lun stood out for his complaining.He says, the CCP Authorities have lifted the land prices up to very high levels for a long time now.The government is pushing from behind all property market companies, so isn ‘t the property price going to be too high?
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/LiYong
