【新唐人2014年04月01日訊】大陸房地產市場二、三綫城市房市降價潮來襲，一綫城市、龍頭房企、國企也在劫難逃，一綫城市釋放出降價打折信號，全面放價走量，被稱為樓市避風港的深圳，新推出的樓盤中最低價格，相比去年已經下降每平方米3000元，而金融機構也開始緊縮房產融資。那麼為甚麼國際上早已預估的泡沫破滅現在才開始，我們來看看專家分析。
資料顯示，截至3月27號，今年已經有超過75家國營房地產公司，股權或資產專案在掛牌轉讓，市場價值超過100億元人民幣。
北京、上海等一線城市，從去年9月開始二手房價格一直下跌，而新開盤的住房中不管處在哪個位置，也在平價推出。
繼廣州、北京新開盤住房平價售賣後，被稱為「樓市避風港」的深圳新盤價格也開始下調，3月新推出的樓盤—水木丹華，最低價格相比去年已經下降每平方米3000元。
《證券日報》報導說， 3月份全中國土地市場驟然降溫，截至3月25號，一線城市土地出讓金收入只有84.5億元，去年同期這一數字高達320億元。同時，大部份標竿房地產企業拿地也出現放緩跡象，一季度10大標竿房地產企業，合計拿地額為776億元，相當於去年拿地額3885億元的20%。
廣東《南方週末》報指出，一些二、三綫城市的房企正試圖透過大幅降價，快速退出房市地雷區，已經出現逃命潮。「綠城集團」行政總裁壽柏年提出警告，今年，一些小型房地產公司將會割肉逃生。
另外，金融機構眼看房市風險升溫，也開始緊縮融資。年初「興業銀行」總行向下級機構下髮指導，要求暫停房地夾層融資，和房地產供應鏈金融業務。媒體形容，「興業銀行」是房地產大限來時，從森林裡逃跑的第一只鳥。
北京《央視》財經評論員牛刀：「從去年開始，已經沒甚麼人接盤，沒甚麼人接盤大家都降低價格賣，現在問題是中國房地產現在已經發生了逆轉，當人民幣在升值的時候，人民預期房價還要漲，所以全部衝進房地產，現在人民幣在開始貶值，好多人就退出來了，房價肯定要跌。」
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元：「可能跟經濟形勢有一定關係，房地產商已經撐了很多年了，大部分房企還是高負債的，因為地方的民間借貸很高，比如說一部分放到房地產那兒去，那說明房地產的資金面已經非常緊張，一些地方的房地產商撐不住是正常的。」
在142家A股上市房企中，從55家已發佈的年報看，整體資產負債率繼續上升。55家房企中，29家經營現金流淨額為負值。榮盛發展、北京城建、信達地產和大名城4家房地產公司，經營活動現金流淨額，超過負30億元。地產「老大哥」萬科，現金淨流量同比猛減146%，創近五年新低。大型房企金融街、北京城建、冠城大通現金淨流量同比降幅都在100%以上。
兩年前，國際社會和中國國內不少經濟專家，已經開始大談中國房地產出現泡沫現象，而且很快就會崩盤，可是前兩年中國房價卻不斷攀升，那麼為甚麼這個堅挺的泡沫，在兩年後的今天才開始露出爆破跡象呢？
牛刀：「中國是個專政主義國家，在房地產發生問題的時候，央行、包括政府動員一切的手段來維護這個房價，他不按市場來走, 每次碰到房地產市場要調整的時候，他們在放貸、發錢往外放，大家一看是政府在秘密保護泡沫，所以大家拚命衝進泡沫當中，現在他保不住了嘛，現在美元在出逃，出逃以後它保不住了。」
面對居高不下的房價，地產巨頭「萬通集團」董事長馮侖跳出來喊冤，馮侖強調，官方長期以來把地價抬高，有政府在踢房企屁股，房價能不高嗎？
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/李勇
Mainland Property Prices Drop Dramatically
Along with the arrival of property price cuts in the second and third-tier cities,the same plight has spilled over in to the first-tier cities,top property developers and state-owned enterprises.The property price is largely lowering. Even in Shenzhen City,a place called property investment haven ,the lowest price of new properties, has reduced by 3000 Yuan(US$ 500) per square meter compared to last year.Financial institutions also followed suit and began to reduce their property financing.So why does the prematurely predicted bubble break so late? Let ‘s see what the experts are saying.
According to the available public information, till March 27 of this year,
more than 75 state-owned property development companies have attempted to sell stock shares or assets.Their total market value was around 10 billion RMB.
(US$ 1.6 billion)
In the first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai,since last September, the second-hand property prices have been continually dropping downwards.
While new properties anywhere elseare sold on the market at a flat price.
Following the flat prices of new properties in Guangzhou and Beijing,the new property price in Shenzhen City, called property investment haven, began to decrease.The lowest price of new property Shuimudanhua just on the market in March,has diminished by 3000 yuan per square meter comparing it with the lowest prices of last year.
Securities Daily reported, in March the national land market abruptly came to a halt. Up till March 25, the revenues of selling land in first-tire cities, is just 8.45 billion RMB,whereas compared to the same period of last year,
it was 32 billion RMB.Meanwhile, the land grab of most benchmark property enterprises, also shows signs of slowing down.In the first season of this year, the top ten property companies obtained land with a total value of 77.6 billion RMB (US$ 12 billion),which is around 20% of the 388.5 billion RMB ( US$ 62 billion) in the same period of last year.
Guangdong-based Southern Weekly newspaper points out,some property companies in second- and third-tier cities,are trying to rapidly retreat from the property market, because they are finding many minefields along the way.
Shou Bonian of Greentown Real Estate Group Company Ltd CEO,gave a warning recently, this year will see some small companies losing money if they are to survive this rocky period.
In addition to this, in view of the conspicuous high risk within the property market, financial institutions also began to control the financing supply
to the property market.Early this year, Industrial Bank headquarters has required all branch offices,to stop the property mezzanine finance business and Real estate, supplying chain finance business.Media describes the Industrial Bank, as the first bird to fleefrom its nest,as the net closes in and the property market moves closer to its own doomsday.
Beijing CCTV financial commentator Mr Niu Dao:"Since last year, almost no buyers dare to buy in to the property market, hence the property price slump we are now experiencing has dawned.The current issue, is that China ‘s property has had a massive turn around. When RMB goes up, it is expected that the property prices
will increase and then many people will rush into the property market.Yet when RMB goes down, many people retreat from the property market, and hence the price then goes down."
Deputy Director Mr Feng Xingyuan of Beijing-based Unirule Economic Inistitute:
“This might relate to the situation of economics to some extent.The property developers have sustained it for many years.Most of the property development companies have high debt rates.Considering the high interest rates of the private lending market,if some loans are used for property investment, then this shows the severity of the situation to the funding property market,and some of the property developers are so close to their limit of funds."
Of the 142 public listed property companies in A Share Market,according to the published annual reports of 55 companies,their overall asset-liability ratios are continually going up.Of these 55 companies, 29 companies have negative values in the area of operating net cash flow. Four companies, including RiseSun Real Estate Development Company Ltd., Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Company Ltd, Cinda Real Estate Company Ltd, and Great- town Holdings Ltd, all have negative net cash flow of more than 3 billion RMB.Number one property company Vanke Company, also has a dramatically reduced net cash flow,
on average 146 percent less than last year ‘s cash flow,which is the lowest on record for the past five years.Large-scale property developers, including Financial Street Holdings Company Ltd,Beijing Urban Construction Investment
& Development Company Ltd,and Citychamp Dartong Company Ltd, have also reduced
their net cash flow of over 100% compared to last year.
Two years ago, many domestic and international economic experts, began describing how China ‘s property market bubble would soon burst.However, during the recent two years, the property price was still climbing.So how has the bubble managed to remain so robust and only just started to give signs of bursting?
Mr Niu Dao: “China is a dictatorship country.When the property field experiences serious problems,the Central Bank and the Government will mobilise all means to secure the property price.They don ‘t follow the market law. Each time when the property market is prepared to make an adjustment,the government then goes and increases the monetary supply and loans.People know the government secretly protects the bubble,so they all rush into the centre of the bubble.Now however, the government can not secure the bubble.US Dollars are also fleeing the country and this triggers the impossibility of securing the bubble."
Beijing Vantone Real Estate Company Ltd is one of the premium property developers in China.As for high property prices, the Board of Directors to Vantone Mr Feng Lun stood out for his complaining.He says, the CCP Authorities have lifted the land prices up to very high levels for a long time now.The government is pushing from behind all property market companies, so isn ‘t the property price going to be too high?
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/LiYong
