【新唐人2013年03月21日讯】政治分析人士裴敏欣在《外交者》（The Diplomat）杂志上，发表了《中共下台的五套剧本》。他说，从历史经验上看，前苏联共产党、台湾国民党、与墨西哥革命制度党，这三个执政时间最长的政党都不是一夕崩溃，早在他们交出权力的十年前就已出现系统性危机。不出几年，中国发生民主过渡的可能性相当高。
裴敏欣登在《外交者》杂志上的文章说，过去积累的国际和历史经验显示，40年来已有大约80个国家，通过不同形式，从专制统治转型成民主社会。
史上最长记录的前苏联共产党维持了74年，其次是台湾国民党的73年，和墨西哥革命制度党的71年。
裴敏欣指出，这三个执政时间最长的政党都不是一夕崩溃，早在他们交出权力的十年前，就已出现系统性危机。而中共统治中国已达65年，社会不安与骚乱也逐年增加，因此可以合理推测，共产党下台不再遥不可及，只需再过10到15年，寿命上限即将到来。
旅美政论家伍凡认为，中共倒台要不了15年了，甚至10年。他认为，共产党政权在3到5年内一定会发生变化，有六个现实的条件促成。
旅美政论家伍凡：“第一个，就是共产党的领导人，一代不如一代。苏联共产党也是到了第五代彻底垮台，它到第五代了；第二个：共产党这个组织腐败透顶，没有自我约束的能力，跋扈狂妄，有时候像个流氓。不知道怎么样治理这个国家和治理这个地区，就是要捞钱，捞权，二奶、三奶。”
伍凡说，中共的军队都腐烂了，而民众的反抗势力已形成。
伍凡：“第三个条件：老百姓忍受了六十多年，现在借助于网路，广播，电视以及各样媒体，相当程度可以得到一点资讯，反抗的势力形成了，那么现在还没完全组织起来，但是这个情绪已经起来了，你看internet（网际网路）上面嘲笑，疯骂。第四个条件：经济下滑。”
伍凡指出，中国的国民生产总值（GDP）实际连6都不到。由于经济发展停滞，加上物价高涨，社会就会动乱。
伍凡：“第五个条件：生态环保越来越坏，这事牵扯到所有的人，不管你有钱没钱，有权没权，统统牵扯进去了，这是一个最能够激动人心。要结束共产党专政，我上面讲的五个条件，我还没有讲到一些，更特殊的团体，像法轮功，民运组织，被共党迫害，要把它瓦解等等，还不包括这些。”
伍凡指出，中共倒台的第六个条件，正是那些激烈想要结束共产党独裁暴政的团体。他认为，如果中国的生态环境再恶化下去，老百姓就会揭竿而起。
而时政评论员汪北稷指出，共产党政权灭亡已经开始，但因为宠大的“维稳”系统，因此需要一个过程。
时政评论员汪北稷：“人类历史上没有一个独裁集团、没有一个统治者，对人民这么残酷。对人民的精神上这么残酷的去迫害。对人民从宗教信仰上去迫害、对人民从肉体上去迫害、对人类文明、对人类自由的迫害。”
汪北稷表示，共产党对自然的破坏也是史无前例。
汪北稷：“它是对环境完全的、彻底破坏性的去掠夺，掠夺它的资源，破坏它的绿化，破坏它野生的动物、植物、生物以及人民所居住的环境。它的毁坏性是双重的，对中国国内的人民，和对世界经济、政治秩序的破坏、军事秩序的破坏，所以它的灭亡已经开始了。”
汪北稷还指出，中共的解体，从它自身的罪恶、和世界主流社会的关注与防备，以及中国民众的觉醒，这三重作用下，已经势不可挡，中共倒台是大势所趋。
采访编辑/李韵 后制/钟元
Factors Contributing to Inevitable Downfall of CCP
The Diplomat magazine published an article
authored by political analyst Minxin Pei.
It is entitled, “Five Ways China Could Become a Democracy".
The article highlights the “three longest
ruling one-party regimes" during history.
These were the Communist Party of the former Soviet
Union, and the one-party regimes in Mexico and Taiwan.
They “began to experience system-threatening crisis
roughly a decade before they exited political power."
Pei thinks that “a transition to democracy in China
in the next 10 to 15 years is an event of high probability."
Minxin Pei mentions the “accumulated international
and historical experience in democratic transitions."
That is,"roughly 80 countries have made the
transition from authoritarian rule to varying forms
and degrees of democracy in the past 40 years."
The article states “the record longevity
of a one-party regime is 74 years.
This is held by the former Communist
Party of the Soviet Union."
“One-party regimes in Mexico and Taiwan remained
in power for 71 and 73 years, respectively."
Pei points out that “the three longest-ruling one-party
regimes began to experience system-threatening crisis
roughly a decade before they exited political power."
He considers “if the same historical experience should
be repeated in China, where the CCP has ruled for 63 years."
It is reasonable that “in the coming 10-15 years", “the CCP
will reach the upper-limit of longevity of one-party regimes."
Political critic Wu Fan says that the CCP regime’s
collapse may come true within 10 years.
He forecasts that in the next 3-5 years, the CCP regime
will certainly face a change, which is attributed to six factors.
Wu Fan: “Firstly, successive generations of CCP
leaders have been inferior to their predecessors.
The Communist Party of former Soviet
Union collapsed at its fifth-generation.
Secondly, the CCP has become rotten to core,
domineering and arrogant, and acting like a rogue.
It doesn’t know anything about governance, but knows
how to pocket money, grab power and keep mistresses."
Wu Fan adds that the CCP military are decomposing.
Meanwhile, civil society has seen rebelling forces.
Wu Fan: “Thirdly, civilians have endured for over 60 years.
Today, by means of the internet, radio, TV and other
media, they can get access to some information.
The resistance has been initiated, but hasn’t been organized.
You may just refer to those online mocking and cursing
posts. The fourth is the economic downturn in China."
China’s GDP growth is actually below 6%, Wu Fan says.
The economic stall, plus high prices, creates
an easy situation to trigger social chaos.
Wu Fan: “The fifth factors is that
the environment is getting worse.
This has affected everyone, including rich and
poor, the privileged and the disadvantaged.
There are some other factors
that contribute to CCP’s downfall.
This includes groups such as Falun Gong
practitioners and pro-democracy organizations.
They’re victims of CCP persecution, and have
participated in the disintegration of the CCP."
According to Wu Fan, the sixth factor is the groups
that strongly want to end the tyrannical regime.
If China’s ecological environment deteriorates further,
civilians would start an uprising, he speculates.
Critic Wang Beiji thinks that the demise
of the CCP regime has already begun.
Due to the existence of a massive system of “maintaining
stability", it will take some time before its downfall.
Wang Beiji: “In human history, it is the most cruel
dictatorial regime that has persecuted the people;
in body; in mind; in faith; human civilization; and liberty."
Wang Beiji adds that the CCP’s
destruction of nature is unprecedented.
Wang Beiji: “The CCP’s plundering of
resources is completely destructive.
It destroys ecosystems, species of wild animals and
plants, as well as the human living environment.
Its damage is two-tier, destroying the Chinese people,
and the world’s economic, political and military order.
So its demise has begun already."
Wang Beiji highlights the exposure of the CCP’s
evil by the mainstream international community.
The Chinese people are also awakening,
so the disintegration of the CCP is
evolving into an overwhelming event.
The trend of the CCP regime’s downfall is irreversible.
