【新唐人2012年12月14日讯】12号上午，朝鲜发射了“银河3号”远程运载火箭。引起国际社会的强烈指责，就连平壤的最后一个盟友中共，也表示了不满。但是，学者分析，尽管中共当局对朝鲜的一意孤行表示不满，但是，中共不会做出强烈反应，下面请看本台记者的分析报导。
朝鲜发射运载火箭，这一做法引起了包括德国、美国、俄罗斯等国际社会的指责。尤其美国和韩国认为，这其实是试射远程导弹的行动，意图在于，用它来运载核弹头或化学武器。因此人们一致认为，朝鲜这是“不负责任”的“挑衅”行为。在要求朝鲜承担后果的同时，联合国安理会计划就此事召集特别会议。
值得一提的是，中共外交部罕见的对盟友朝鲜表示遗憾。中共喉舌《新华社》发表一篇《述评：以朝鲜半岛和平稳定为重》的文章，也少见的对朝鲜采用了指责语气。文章用“我行我素”来形容朝鲜，并指责这是激化东北亚地区局势的“挑衅行为”。
“上海复旦大学韩国朝鲜研究中心”副主任蔡建教授表示，朝鲜的冒险和挑衅行为破坏了朝鲜半岛的稳定。因此，中国出来加以反对。不过蔡建同时指出，中共的这种反对也不会很强烈，中朝关系目前比以往几年更好。
上海复旦大学韩国朝鲜研究中心副主任 蔡建：“中国虽然对朝鲜这样的行为表示不满，但是，中国不会做出很强烈的反应，朝鲜单独面对韩国、美国、日本的压力的时候，他很难抵得住的，那么，（中共）要支持朝鲜政权的存在，继续生存，所以，中国不会跟国际社会一样，给朝鲜太多的压力。”
旅美学者谢选骏指出，朝鲜是模仿中共60年代的战略路线，因此，引起中共的不满。
旅美学者 谢选骏：“北朝鲜现在是复制1960年代的中国模式，中国和美国搞对抗，来提升自己的国际地位，然后，勒索经济援助，大概这个意思，所以中国不高兴。”
不过，时事评论员林子旭的看法是，在朝鲜实施火箭发射计划前，中共应该了解，而且很可能就是中共一手控制操作。
时事评论员 林子旭：“现在的朝鲜就是一个植物人状态，没有中共输血，朝鲜政权根本就维持不了几天，更何况金正恩立足未稳，吃了豹子胆但他也不敢背着中共这位老大发射火箭的。事情发生以后，中共第一时间跳出来表示不满，很有一种此地无银三百两的味道。”
此外，林子旭指出，近来国际社会对中共的人权迫害给予强烈谴责，周边国家也对南海问题提出反弹，美国总统高调访问缅甸等，都让中共在国际外交上变得很被动、很孤立。
林子旭：“朝鲜出来挑事儿，中共假模假样的进行谴责，这样就给中共创造了一个和其他国家站在一起的机会，好像中共和国际社会的观点也有共同之处，这个就能让中共和很多国家拉近关系。”
中共当局这样的行为，林子旭认为，它还可以以朝鲜的老大身份出现，让国际认为，只有中共能够搞定朝鲜的态度，过程中又可以向国际社会提条件，从而赚取政治、军事等方面的利益。
林子旭：“说白了朝鲜就是中共的一张牌，什么时候出牌就看中共的需要了。朝鲜现在就是穷兵黩武，完全不考虑自己的形象，一幅我是流氓我怕谁的嘴脸，这样，很多中共顾及颜面，不好意思直接做的事情，这兄弟俩就可以一起唱戏了。”
联合国安理会曾通过第1874号决议，禁止朝鲜进行核试验以及任何涉及弹道导弹技术的发射活动。而美国白宫国家安全委员会发言人维托也发表声明，在今后一段时期内，美国将采取适当行动。
采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉
North Korea s Persistent Willfulness Angers its Last Ally CCP
In the morning of December 12,North Korea launched
its Unha-3 rocket which was strongly criticized by the international community.
Even the last ally of Pyongyang,
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) expressed dissatisfaction.
But scholars said that, even with the CCP unsatisfied with
North Korea’s action, it will not respond strongly.
Let’s see more from our reporter.
North Korea s rocket launch was criticized by Germany,
United States, Russia and others in the international community.
Especially the United States and South Korea thought,
its intention is to carry nuclear or chemical weapons.
Therefore, this is thought to be an “irresponsible" and
“provocative" action by North Korea.
The United Nations Security Council asked North Korea
to take its consequence responsibility,
and has planned to organize
a special meeting on this issue.
It’s worth mentioning that the CCP Foreign Ministry said
It’s worth mentioning that the CCP Foreign Ministry said
It regrets this action by its ally North Korea.
The CCP mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency published
“Commentary: Maintain ing peace and stability on
the Korean Peninsula is more important”,
in which it condemned North Korea in a rare tone.
It used “persisting in its old ways” to describe North Korea,
and said it had used “provocative behavior” to intensify
the situation in Northeast Asia.
Prof. Cai Jian, a deputy director of Korea Research Center,
Shanghai Fudan University said
North Korea’s adventurous and provocative action
broke the stability of the Korean Peninsula.
Therefore, China has to come out to oppose this action.
Cai Jian pointed out that CCP’s opposition is not very strong,
Relations between China and DPRK is better than before.
Cai Jian: “Although the CCP has expressed its dissatisfaction
with the behavior of North Korea, it will not be very strong.
North Korea can’t withstand the pressure from
South Korea, United States and Japan by itself.
Then, it needs support from the CCP, which is the reason
why the CCP will not press North Korea as much as other countries.”
Xie Xuanjun, a Chinese American scholar pointed out that
North Korea is using the strategy which CCP used in 1960s.
And this has caused the dissatisfaction of the CCP.
Xie Xuanjun: “North Korea is copying the model that CCP used
in the 1960s, in which time the CCP engaged in confronting U.S.
to enhance its international status, and then blackmailed
the international community for aid. This is what the CCP doesn’t like.”
However, a political commentator Lin Zixu thought, the
CCP must have known something before the DPRK launched the rocket.
It’s very possible that the launch was
controlled by the CCP.
Lin Zixu: “The current North Korea is like a vegetative state.
Without the blood transfusion from CCP, the North Korean
regime simply cannot sustain for more than a few days.
Besides, Kim Jong-un’s power isn’t solid so far, and he won’t
dare to launch the rocket without the permit from the CCP.
After the rocket was launched, CCP is the first one that
jumped out to blame it, which tries to conceal, but gives itself away by the act.”
In addition, as Lin Zixu pointed out recently, the international
community criticized CCP for its persecution on human rights.
At the same time, the neighboring countries also rebound
There is the South China Sea issue as well. Furthermore,
the U.S. president visited Myanmar in a high-profile.
All of these made CCP very passive and isolated in diplomacy.
Lin Zixu: “North Korea jumped out to provoke,
CCP pretended to condemn.
This process gave CCP a chance to stand with other countries
which looks like it has a common view with the international community.
CCP tried to build relationship with
other counties in this way.”
Lin Zixu also thought that CCP can present itself
as the boss of DPRK,
which will give the international community
an impression that only CCP can deal with DPRK.
In the process, CCP also will set some pre-conditions
in which it will achieve interests in political and military.
Lin Zixu: “In plain words, North Korea is a card of CCP.
CCP plays it when it needs to.
North Korea is exhausting all resources to build up
its military power and doesn’t care about its image,
which is the image of a rogue. Then, when there’s something
that CCP is shy of doing do will arrange North Korea to do.
The brothers play the game together.”
The United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1874,
to ban North Korea conducting a nuclear test, and any
emission activities that related to ballistic missile technology.
The spokesman of the White House National Security Council
Tommy Victor, also issued a statement that the U.S. will
take appropriate action in the following period of time.
