【新唐人2012年12月14日訊】12號上午，朝鮮發射了「銀河3號」遠程運載火箭。引起國際社會的強烈指責，就連平壤的最後一個盟友中共，也表示了不滿。但是，學者分析，儘管中共當局對朝鮮的一意孤行表示不滿，但是，中共不會做出強烈反應，下面請看本臺記者的分析報導。
朝鮮發射運載火箭，這一做法引起了包括德國、美國、俄羅斯等國際社會的指責。尤其美國和韓國認為，這其實是試射遠程導彈的行動，意圖在於，用它來運載核彈頭或化學武器。因此人們一致認為，朝鮮這是「不負責任」的「挑釁」行為。在要求朝鮮承擔後果的同時，聯合國安理會計劃就此事召集特別會議。
值得一提的是，中共外交部罕見的對盟友朝鮮表示遺憾。中共喉舌《新華社》發表一篇《述評：以朝鮮半島和平穩定為重》的文章，也少見的對朝鮮採用了指責語氣。文章用「我行我素」來形容朝鮮，並指責這是激化東北亞地區局勢的「挑釁行為」。
「上海復旦大學韓國朝鮮研究中心」副主任蔡建教授表示，朝鮮的冒險和挑釁行為破壞了朝鮮半島的穩定。因此，中國出來加以反對。不過蔡建同時指出，中共的這種反對也不會很強烈，中朝關係目前比以往幾年更好。
上海復旦大學韓國朝鮮研究中心副主任 蔡建：「中國雖然對朝鮮這樣的行為表示不滿，但是，中國不會做出很強烈的反應，朝鮮單獨面對韓國、美國、日本的壓力的時候，他很難抵得住的，那麼，（中共）要支持朝鮮政權的存在，繼續生存，所以，中國不會跟國際社會一樣，給朝鮮太多的壓力。」
旅美學者謝選駿指出，朝鮮是模仿中共60年代的戰略路線，因此，引起中共的不滿。
旅美學者 謝選駿：「北朝鮮現在是複製1960年代的中國模式，中國和美國搞對抗，來提升自己的國際地位，然後，勒索經濟援助，大概這個意思，所以中國不高興。」
不過，時事評論員林子旭的看法是，在朝鮮實施火箭發射計劃前，中共應該了解，而且很可能就是中共一手控制操作。
時事評論員 林子旭：「現在的朝鮮就是一個植物人狀態，沒有中共輸血，朝鮮政權根本就維持不了幾天，更何況金正恩立足未穩，吃了豹子膽但他也不敢背著中共這位老大發射火箭的。事情發生以後，中共第一時間跳出來表示不滿，很有一種此地無銀三百兩的味道。」
此外，林子旭指出，近來國際社會對中共的人權迫害給予強烈譴責，周邊國家也對南海問題提出反彈，美國總統高調訪問緬甸等，都讓中共在國際外交上變得很被動、很孤立。
林子旭：「朝鮮出來挑事兒，中共假模假樣的進行譴責，這樣就給中共創造了一個和其他國家站在一起的機會，好像中共和國際社會的觀點也有共同之處，這個就能讓中共和很多國家拉近關係。」
中共當局這樣的行為，林子旭認為，它還可以以朝鮮的老大身份出現，讓國際認為，只有中共能夠搞定朝鮮的態度，過程中又可以向國際社會提條件，從而賺取政治、軍事等方面的利益。
林子旭：「說白了朝鮮就是中共的一張牌，甚麼時候出牌就看中共的需要了。朝鮮現在就是窮兵黷武，完全不考慮自己的形象，一幅我是流氓我怕誰的嘴臉，這樣，很多中共顧及顏面，不好意思直接做的事情，這兄弟倆就可以一起唱戲了。」
聯合國安理會曾通過第1874號決議，禁止朝鮮進行核試驗以及任何涉及彈道導彈技術的發射活動。而美國白宮國家安全委員會發言人維託也發表聲明，在今後一段時期內，美國將採取適當行動。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉
North Korea s Persistent Willfulness Angers its Last Ally CCP
In the morning of December 12,North Korea launched
its Unha-3 rocket which was strongly criticized by the international community.
Even the last ally of Pyongyang,
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) expressed dissatisfaction.
But scholars said that, even with the CCP unsatisfied with
North Korea’s action, it will not respond strongly.
Let’s see more from our reporter.
North Korea s rocket launch was criticized by Germany,
United States, Russia and others in the international community.
Especially the United States and South Korea thought,
its intention is to carry nuclear or chemical weapons.
Therefore, this is thought to be an “irresponsible" and
“provocative" action by North Korea.
The United Nations Security Council asked North Korea
to take its consequence responsibility,
and has planned to organize
a special meeting on this issue.
It’s worth mentioning that the CCP Foreign Ministry said
It’s worth mentioning that the CCP Foreign Ministry said
It regrets this action by its ally North Korea.
The CCP mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency published
“Commentary: Maintain ing peace and stability on
the Korean Peninsula is more important”,
in which it condemned North Korea in a rare tone.
It used “persisting in its old ways” to describe North Korea,
and said it had used “provocative behavior” to intensify
the situation in Northeast Asia.
Prof. Cai Jian, a deputy director of Korea Research Center,
Shanghai Fudan University said
North Korea’s adventurous and provocative action
broke the stability of the Korean Peninsula.
Therefore, China has to come out to oppose this action.
Cai Jian pointed out that CCP’s opposition is not very strong,
Relations between China and DPRK is better than before.
Cai Jian: “Although the CCP has expressed its dissatisfaction
with the behavior of North Korea, it will not be very strong.
North Korea can’t withstand the pressure from
South Korea, United States and Japan by itself.
Then, it needs support from the CCP, which is the reason
why the CCP will not press North Korea as much as other countries.”
Xie Xuanjun, a Chinese American scholar pointed out that
North Korea is using the strategy which CCP used in 1960s.
And this has caused the dissatisfaction of the CCP.
Xie Xuanjun: “North Korea is copying the model that CCP used
in the 1960s, in which time the CCP engaged in confronting U.S.
to enhance its international status, and then blackmailed
the international community for aid. This is what the CCP doesn’t like.”
However, a political commentator Lin Zixu thought, the
CCP must have known something before the DPRK launched the rocket.
It’s very possible that the launch was
controlled by the CCP.
Lin Zixu: “The current North Korea is like a vegetative state.
Without the blood transfusion from CCP, the North Korean
regime simply cannot sustain for more than a few days.
Besides, Kim Jong-un’s power isn’t solid so far, and he won’t
dare to launch the rocket without the permit from the CCP.
After the rocket was launched, CCP is the first one that
jumped out to blame it, which tries to conceal, but gives itself away by the act.”
In addition, as Lin Zixu pointed out recently, the international
community criticized CCP for its persecution on human rights.
At the same time, the neighboring countries also rebound
There is the South China Sea issue as well. Furthermore,
the U.S. president visited Myanmar in a high-profile.
All of these made CCP very passive and isolated in diplomacy.
Lin Zixu: “North Korea jumped out to provoke,
CCP pretended to condemn.
This process gave CCP a chance to stand with other countries
which looks like it has a common view with the international community.
CCP tried to build relationship with
other counties in this way.”
Lin Zixu also thought that CCP can present itself
as the boss of DPRK,
which will give the international community
an impression that only CCP can deal with DPRK.
In the process, CCP also will set some pre-conditions
in which it will achieve interests in political and military.
Lin Zixu: “In plain words, North Korea is a card of CCP.
CCP plays it when it needs to.
North Korea is exhausting all resources to build up
its military power and doesn’t care about its image,
which is the image of a rogue. Then, when there’s something
that CCP is shy of doing do will arrange North Korea to do.
The brothers play the game together.”
The United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1874,
to ban North Korea conducting a nuclear test, and any
emission activities that related to ballistic missile technology.
The spokesman of the White House National Security Council
Tommy Victor, also issued a statement that the U.S. will
take appropriate action in the following period of time.
