【新唐人2012年9月10日讯】由于中国政治的不透明性，有关中共的十八大高层人事安排的各种传闻层出不穷，上海市委书记俞正声，是否在“十八大”能够“入常”，也备受怀疑。有消息说，被视为俞正声幕后老板的江泽民，对俞正声入常的态度表现“超然”。最近只靠医疗设备维持生命的江泽民，很可能已经无法表态，所以自然会“超然”，不过海外这些媒体为何要放风俞正声不入常的传闻呢？下面就一起来听一听，专家的分析。
记者：据了解，一向被视为“太子党”老大哥的俞正声，“十八大”将成为他政治仕途的“末班车”，更是俞正声挤进最高权力圈的最后机会。
江泽民曾是俞正声的父亲俞启威，也就是黄敬的下属。1980年初，江泽民在电子工业部成为俞正声的上司后，对俞正声大力提携并重用。
《江泽民其人》一书披露，1992年，江泽民倒杨尚昆时，俞正声通过邓朴方，成功说服邓小平，使江泽民顺利接掌军权。
另外，海外中文媒体放出风声表示，被视为俞正声的幕后老板江泽民认为，俞能当到政治局委员这一级就足够了，没有必要再入常。
被外界公认已经成为“活死尸”的江泽民，还有精力来关心俞正声不必要“入常”吗？
香港《动向》杂志主编张伟国接受《新唐人》采访时表示，明眼人一看就明白是怎么回事。
香港《动向》杂志主编 张伟国：“一个植物人，作为一个“僵尸”还会说这样的话，我想这个问题本身，大家听了都已经知道这个答案是什么了吧，当然有一些媒体，这样炒作也有他们自己的利益所在 。”
为什么会出现这些风声，时事评论员夏小强分析，中共体制下，外界和民众无法从中共官方媒体获得信息；同时，中共高层各派势力在激烈的内斗中，也只能通过国际与海外媒体释放的信息打击对手。
时事评论员 夏小强：“江派通过他们掌控的海外媒体，放出俞正声不‘入常’的消息，很有可能是现在江派大势已去的现实下，原来江派人马或是有江派色彩的官员，纷纷脱离江派的一种表现。同时借这个消息，来释放出江泽民还对现有的政局有影响力的这种假消息，来给自己壮胆。近期江派利用海外媒体连续释放了不少的假消息，也表现出了一种末日来临前的一种状态。”
6月8号，香港《南华早报》放风预测7常委人选，俞正声在名单之中。北戴河会议后，也传出北戴河会议所谓“拟定入常”名单。一份包括俞正声和张德江，另一份为保俞正声而舍弃张德江。
不过，在目前9名政治局常委和25名政治局委员中，以68岁退休惯例为限，今年已超过67岁的俞正声，面临年龄超限。
资深媒体人王宇心分析，江派放风的目地是投石问路，试探党内外舆论的反应。以目前形势来看，备受争议的俞正声“入常”希望渺茫。
对于“十八大”之前的种种传言，张伟国表示，有关的各方还会放风，他强调,只要最后的名单没有出来之前，任何变数都可能发生，尤其薄熙来事件，使得各方的利益有了新的较量，需要从新洗牌，内斗激烈的程度，超过以往任何一届。
张伟国：“甚至于也不排斥，就是在正常的他们共产党自己会议的议程上面，出现一些个重大的变化，所以不到最后一刻，正式官方公报，宣布这个名单之前。那所有的名单都可以看作是一种试探，一种祈求，某一方面放出来的风。”
夏小强指出，种种迹象表明，在目前的局势下，江派已支离破碎，“十八大”之后，江派在政治局已经失势的高官都将下台，甚至连指定自己职务接班人的机会都没有，江派面临了“绝境”。
采访编辑/常春 后制/葛雷
Is Jiang Zemin Really Indifferent on Yu’s Chance of Getting into the Standing Committee?
Various rumors about the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
personnel arrangements during the 18th National Congress have been passed around one after another.
Rumors surround whether Yu Zhengsheng, Secretary
of Shanghai Municipal Committee, will be promoted into the Standing Committee.
Some news states that Jiang Zemin is deemed
Yu Zhengsheng’s boss behind the scenes.
Jiang is said to be indifferent about Yu’s
chance of getting into the Standing Committee.
Does Jiang, who is now thought to be in a vegetative state,
still have the energy to care about whether or not Yu
will be promoted into the Standing Committee?
Then why did overseas media spread the news that Yu
is not going to be a member of the Standing Committee?
The following analysis by experts
will give a hint on the answers.
Yu Zhengsheng is considered the
“big brother” of the CCP’s princelings.
The 18th National Congress will be Yu’s
last train in his political career path.
It will be the last chance for Yu to move forward into
the CCP’s highest power echelons, the Standing Committee.
Jiang Zemin used to report to
Yu Zhengsheng’s father, Yu Qiwei.
In early 1980, Jiang Zemin became Yu Zhengsheng’s
boss within the Ministry of electronic industry.
Since then, Jiang started to promote Yu Zhengsheng
and put him in an important position.
The book “Jiang Zemin, Himself” disclosed Yu Zhengsheng
helped Jiang Zemin take over military power in 1992,
when Jiang plotted against Yang Shangkun.
Yu Zhengsheng did a favor to Jiang by asking De Pufang,
Deng Xiaoping’s son, to persuade Deng Xiaoping.
Overseas Chinese media spread news that
Jiang Zemin, deemed as Yu Zhengsheng’s boss
behind the scenes, thinks that it’s good enough
for Yu to be a member of Political Bureau.
It stated that Jiang thinks it’s not necessary for Yu
to be the member of the Standing Committee.
It is known to the public that Jiang is in a vegetative state.
Does he still have the energy to care whether or not Yu
should be promoted to a member of the Standing Committee?
Zhang Weiguo, Chief Editor of Hong Kong’s
“Trends” magazine, said that anyone with a discerning eye can easily see what’s going on.
Zhang Weiguo: “As a man in a vegetative state,
Jiang is still able to say those words.
I think we all know what the real purpose is.
Of course, the media that help spread this
news are doing so for their own interests.”
Why is this news about Yu Zhengsheng being spread?
Xia Xiaoqiang, political commentator, thinks that people
are not able to obtain information from China’s official media.
Overseas media are being used by different
Chinese Communist Party(CCP) political factions to attack each other during infighting.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Jiang’s faction spread this news,
through using overseas media under their control.
It said Yu Zhengsheng is not going to be
a member of the CCP Standing Committee.
It’s very possible that it’s a sign that Jiang’s people
are now leaving from Jiang’s faction, because they see Jiang is losing his power.
Meanwhile, they are trying to encourage themselves
by disclosing fake news that Jiang still has some influence on China’s political situation.
Recently, Jiang’s faction released quite
a lot of fake news through overseas media.
It shows the last rays of a setting sun for Jiang’s faction.”
On June 8, Hong Kong’s “South China Morning Post”
made the forecast that Yu Zhengsheng is one of the seven members of the Standing Committee.
After the Beidaihe conference, name lists of members
of the Standing Committee have been passing around.
One version says Yu Zhengsheng
and Zhang Dejiang are on the list.
Another version says that Yu is on the list but Zhang is not.
Among the 9 members of the Standing Committee and 25
members of Political Bureau, 67-year old Yu Zhengsheng should retire soon since 68 is the age to retire.
Wang Yuxin, an experienced media businessman, thinks
that Jiang’s faction disclosed the news to test public opinion.
From the current situation, there is very little hope for Yu
to be promoted as a member of the Standing Committee.
Regarding all of rumors spread before the 18th National
Congress, Zhang Weiguo thinks anything can happen before the formal name list of the Standing Committee is released.
Since the “Bo Xilai Event”, power among
different CCP factions has been shifted.
The level of the fighting among
different factions is fiercer than ever.
Zhang Weiguo: “It’s not impossible that there
will be some important changes in the regular agenda of the CCP’s national congress.
Before the name list of the Standing Committee is released
officially, all rumors can be regarded as somewhat a test,
as hopes or rumors spread intentionally.”
Xia Xiaoqiang stated that all sorts of signs point
towards Jiang’s faction having already fallen apart.
After the 18th National Congress, all senior officials of Jiang’s
faction will have to step down from China’s political stage.
They wouldn’t even have the chance
to designate their own successor. The end of Jiang’s faction is coming.
