【新唐人2012年9月10日訊】由於中國政治的不透明性，有關中共的十八大高層人事安排的各種傳聞層出不窮，上海市委書記俞正聲，是否在「十八大」能夠「入常」，也備受懷疑。有消息說，被視為俞正聲幕後老闆的江澤民，對俞正聲入常的態度表現「超然」。最近只靠醫療設備維持生命的江澤民，很可能已經無法表態，所以自然會「超然」，不過海外這些媒體為何要放風俞正聲不入常的傳聞呢？下面就一起來聽一聽，專家的分析。
記者：據了解，一向被視為「太子黨」老大哥的俞正聲，「十八大」將成為他政治仕途的「末班車」，更是俞正聲擠進最高權力圈的最後機會。
江澤民曾是俞正聲的父親俞啟威，也就是黃敬的下屬。1980年初，江澤民在電子工業部成為俞正聲的上司後，對俞正聲大力提攜並重用。
《江澤民其人》一書披露，1992年，江澤民倒楊尚昆時，俞正聲通過鄧樸方，成功說服鄧小平，使江澤民順利接掌軍權。
另外，海外中文媒體放出風聲表示，被視為俞正聲的幕後老闆江澤民認爲，俞能當到政治局委員這一級就足夠了，沒有必要再入常。
被外界公認已經成為「活死屍」的江澤民，還有精力來關心俞正聲不必要「入常」嗎？
香港《動向》雜誌主編張偉國接受《新唐人》採訪時表示，明眼人一看就明白是怎麼回事。
香港《動向》雜誌主編 張偉國：「一個植物人，作為一個「殭屍」還會說這樣的話，我想這個問題本身，大家聽了都已經知道這個答案是甚麼了吧，當然有一些媒體，這樣炒作也有他們自己的利益所在 。」
為甚麼會出現這些風聲，時事評論員夏小強分析，中共體制下，外界和民眾無法從中共官方媒體獲得信息；同時，中共高層各派勢力在激烈的內鬥中，也只能通過國際與海外媒體釋放的信息打擊對手。
時事評論員 夏小強：「江派通過他們掌控的海外媒體，放出俞正聲不『入常』的消息，很有可能是現在江派大勢已去的現實下，原來江派人馬或是有江派色彩的官員，紛紛脫離江派的一種表現。同時借這個消息，來釋放出江澤民還對現有的政局有影響力的這種假消息，來給自己壯膽。近期江派利用海外媒體連續釋放了不少的假消息，也表現出了一種末日來臨前的一種狀態。」
6月8號，香港《南華早報》放風預測7常委人選，俞正聲在名單之中。北戴河會議後，也傳出北戴河會議所謂「擬定入常」名單。一份包括俞正聲和張德江，另一份為保俞正聲而捨棄張德江。
不過，在目前9名政治局常委和25名政治局委員中，以68歲退休慣例為限，今年已超過67歲的俞正聲，面臨年齡超限。
資深媒體人王宇心分析，江派放風的目地是投石問路，試探黨內外輿論的反應。以目前形勢來看，備受爭議的俞正聲「入常」希望渺茫。
對於「十八大」之前的種種傳言，張偉國表示，有關的各方還會放風，他強調,只要最後的名單沒有出來之前，任何變數都可能發生，尤其薄熙來事件，使得各方的利益有了新的較量，需要從新洗牌，內鬥激烈的程度，超過以往任何一屆。
張偉國：「甚至於也不排斥，就是在正常的他們共產黨自己會議的議程上面，出現一些個重大的變化，所以不到最後一刻，正式官方公報，宣佈這個名單之前。那所有的名單都可以看作是一種試探，一種祈求，某一方面放出來的風。」
夏小強指出，種種跡象表明，在目前的局勢下，江派已支離破碎，「十八大」之後，江派在政治局已經失勢的高官都將下臺，甚至連指定自己職務接班人的機會都沒有，江派面臨了「絕境」。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/葛雷
Is Jiang Zemin Really Indifferent on Yu’s Chance of Getting into the Standing Committee?
Various rumors about the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
personnel arrangements during the 18th National Congress have been passed around one after another.
Rumors surround whether Yu Zhengsheng, Secretary
of Shanghai Municipal Committee, will be promoted into the Standing Committee.
Some news states that Jiang Zemin is deemed
Yu Zhengsheng’s boss behind the scenes.
Jiang is said to be indifferent about Yu’s
chance of getting into the Standing Committee.
Does Jiang, who is now thought to be in a vegetative state,
still have the energy to care about whether or not Yu
will be promoted into the Standing Committee?
Then why did overseas media spread the news that Yu
is not going to be a member of the Standing Committee?
The following analysis by experts
will give a hint on the answers.
Yu Zhengsheng is considered the
“big brother” of the CCP’s princelings.
The 18th National Congress will be Yu』s
last train in his political career path.
It will be the last chance for Yu to move forward into
the CCP’s highest power echelons, the Standing Committee.
Jiang Zemin used to report to
Yu Zhengsheng’s father, Yu Qiwei.
In early 1980, Jiang Zemin became Yu Zhengsheng’s
boss within the Ministry of electronic industry.
Since then, Jiang started to promote Yu Zhengsheng
and put him in an important position.
The book “Jiang Zemin, Himself” disclosed Yu Zhengsheng
helped Jiang Zemin take over military power in 1992,
when Jiang plotted against Yang Shangkun.
Yu Zhengsheng did a favor to Jiang by asking De Pufang,
Deng Xiaoping’s son, to persuade Deng Xiaoping.
Overseas Chinese media spread news that
Jiang Zemin, deemed as Yu Zhengsheng’s boss
behind the scenes, thinks that it’s good enough
for Yu to be a member of Political Bureau.
It stated that Jiang thinks it’s not necessary for Yu
to be the member of the Standing Committee.
It is known to the public that Jiang is in a vegetative state.
Does he still have the energy to care whether or not Yu
should be promoted to a member of the Standing Committee?
Zhang Weiguo, Chief Editor of Hong Kong’s
“Trends” magazine, said that anyone with a discerning eye can easily see what』s going on.
Zhang Weiguo: “As a man in a vegetative state,
Jiang is still able to say those words.
I think we all know what the real purpose is.
Of course, the media that help spread this
news are doing so for their own interests.”
Why is this news about Yu Zhengsheng being spread?
Xia Xiaoqiang, political commentator, thinks that people
are not able to obtain information from China’s official media.
Overseas media are being used by different
Chinese Communist Party(CCP) political factions to attack each other during infighting.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Jiang’s faction spread this news,
through using overseas media under their control.
It said Yu Zhengsheng is not going to be
a member of the CCP Standing Committee.
It’s very possible that it’s a sign that Jiang’s people
are now leaving from Jiang’s faction, because they see Jiang is losing his power.
Meanwhile, they are trying to encourage themselves
by disclosing fake news that Jiang still has some influence on China’s political situation.
Recently, Jiang’s faction released quite
a lot of fake news through overseas media.
It shows the last rays of a setting sun for Jiang’s faction.”
On June 8, Hong Kong’s “South China Morning Post”
made the forecast that Yu Zhengsheng is one of the seven members of the Standing Committee.
After the Beidaihe conference, name lists of members
of the Standing Committee have been passing around.
One version says Yu Zhengsheng
and Zhang Dejiang are on the list.
Another version says that Yu is on the list but Zhang is not.
Among the 9 members of the Standing Committee and 25
members of Political Bureau, 67-year old Yu Zhengsheng should retire soon since 68 is the age to retire.
Wang Yuxin, an experienced media businessman, thinks
that Jiang’s faction disclosed the news to test public opinion.
From the current situation, there is very little hope for Yu
to be promoted as a member of the Standing Committee.
Regarding all of rumors spread before the 18th National
Congress, Zhang Weiguo thinks anything can happen before the formal name list of the Standing Committee is released.
Since the “Bo Xilai Event”, power among
different CCP factions has been shifted.
The level of the fighting among
different factions is fiercer than ever.
Zhang Weiguo: “It’s not impossible that there
will be some important changes in the regular agenda of the CCP’s national congress.
Before the name list of the Standing Committee is released
officially, all rumors can be regarded as somewhat a test,
as hopes or rumors spread intentionally.”
Xia Xiaoqiang stated that all sorts of signs point
towards Jiang’s faction having already fallen apart.
After the 18th National Congress, all senior officials of Jiang’s
faction will have to step down from China’s political stage.
They wouldn’t even have the chance
to designate their own successor. The end of Jiang’s faction is coming.
