【新唐人2012年8月30日讯】最近，中共国务院一位经济学者撰写的演讲报告，在网上曝光。由于，他预期中国未来将爆发经济危机，加上他在体制内的身份，而受到民众关注。但有评论认为，这份讲稿分析内容了无新意，专家们在过去多年来已经做过分析。但现在，体制内的人说出同样的话，证明以前专家所说，中共官员也在了解，而传播这份报告，或许和即将召开的十八大有关。
《2013年中国将爆发经济危机》这份报告，最近引起不少大陆网民的关注。这是“中共国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所”副所长李佐军，在去年9月17号一个内部报告会上的演讲内容。据报导，报告曾在小范围内流传，但前不久突然被中国网友广泛传播。
报告中，李佐军提出两个问题。一是，当前中国国内外的形势以及未来形势，怎么看、怎么演化？二是，中国的企业和企业家以及普通大众该怎么办？
李佐军从四个原因谈中国正在酝酿的经济危机。
一是房地产的泡沫，和地方收支失衡的债务问题等经济层面；二是国际热钱抽身，和做空中国概念股的外部因素；三是短中长经济周期定律；以及最主要的第四个原因—-十八大中共政权更替期间，中共将不顾一切维护经济表面上的平稳发展等。他认为这四个因素，将使中国正在酝酿的经济危机，在2013年7、8月爆发。
“哈佛大学”政治经济学博士杨建利：“能够系统的论述中国经济会有经济上的大衰退、经济危机，这也不多见。有体制内的学者愿意这么系统的论述这个问题我觉得还是值得钦佩的，需要一定的胆量，而且能够讲这样的实话，还是非常值得赞赏的。”
另一方面，这份报告的观点在过去多年来，专家们已经多有着墨。
《新唐人》特约经济评论专家杰森就指出，针对普遍接触不了海外消息的大陆人来说，这份报告所谈的内容确实少见。但报告中的观点，早已不是秘密。
《新唐人》特约经济评论专家杰森：“现在中国的经济问题，它已经成了秃子头上的虱子，明摆着呢。我们其实已经谈得不能再谈了，而且海外媒体也都在反复报导，这不是新的观点。而且，譬如一些很大的问题，包括国内一些经济人都谈了。因为他（李佐军）并没有讲出来一些新的，我们没有看过的数据，没有很多量化的东西。”
另外，杰森分析，“经济学”中没有明确量化“爆发经济危机”的概念。譬如，目前大陆部分地区的饮食业每个月有15％关闭；又如珠三角地区中小型企业早已成片的倒闭、迁厂；1960年到1962年，中国饿死数千万人，这些情况是否算经济危机？但中共当局不承认。
杰森还指出，中国提出的数据多数为中共官员的造假。
杰森：“我一直不谈，什么时候中国经济危机爆发，为啥呢？什么叫做经济危机爆发？西方它有一个连续两个季度GDP负增长，这是经济衰退的概念，中国会不会出现这个情况（GDP负增长），我持怀疑态度。所以，我就感觉中国的问题，老百姓不能承受的时候，那个社会会整个…会爆发危机。那么他（李佐军）作为体制内的人说出这样的话，就证明我们以前所说的很多事情，他们也在看。”
“哈佛大学”政治经济学博士杨建利分析，李佐军去年的报告再次被拿出来传播，或许和即将召开的十八大有关。
杨建利：“现在中国的高层已经不能够做到完全的统一口径、统一思想，所以现在不排除在十八大之前，有某些人甚至包括共产党内部一些各派系的人，都希望在这时候释放出讯息来，影响十八大路线方面的决策。”
杨建利指出，中国的经济如果不能持续发展，所有的社会矛盾都会在这个时刻暴露出来，最后将会酿成政治变革的问题。
采访编辑/梁欣 后制/黎安安
Is an Economic Crisis Coming? CCP Scholar says so
Recently, a report from economists of China State Council
was spread on the internet.
He anticipated a looming economic crisis. Because of
his position in the regime, what he said gained attention.
However, some critics say it’s not something new,
rather it’s been a familiar topic during the past years.
Only now, it is the opinion from someone within the Regime,
which shows the understanding of CCP top level.
The spreading of the report may be related to
the upcoming 18th Party Congress.
The report named China Will Suffer an Economic Crisis
in 2013 gained attention from netizens.
It was a speech from Li Zuojun, Deputy Director of
State Council Development Research Center,
at an internal meeting on 17th Sept., 2011.
The report had been passed on in small internal circles
and suddenly got hit online.
In the report, Li Zuojun raised 2 questions:
how to view the current situation and
its future development inside and outside of China?
What will the Chinese entrepreneurs and general public do?
He gave out 4 reasons for the upcoming economic crisis.
One is Real Estate bubble bursting and
the debts of local government.
Second is the evacuation of international investment.
Third is the principle of economic cycle.
The forth is during the 18th Party Congress, the CCP will try
with all means to maintain the superficial smooth riding of the economy to facilitate its power transition.
Due to above, he said an economic crisis is brewing now and
will burst in July or August, 2013.
Yang Jianli, a Political Economist of Havard University:
“It is rare to see systematic analysis on China’s future crisis.
It’s admirable that a scholar inside the regime is doing this.
You need courage to tell the truth."
Nevertheless, some opinions in the reports
had been written on by many specialists.
NTD critic Jason Ma said, for the Chinese who were
blocked from outside information, the report is very rare,
however, the opinions inside are no secrets.
Jason Ma: “Problems inside of China’s economy
are so obvious.
We have already talked about it for such a long time.
And it is repeatedly reported by overseas media. It’s not something new.
Besides, some major issues have been well elaborated
by some Chinese economists.
Li’s speech didn’t release new data or statistics."
Jason Ma stated that in economics, there is no clear
measurement for an economic crisis.
For example, in China now,
every month 15% of the food industry are closed.
In the Pearl River Delta, many middle and small
business have closed or moved out.
Another example is from 1960-1962, millions of
Chinese died of starvation.
Are those counted as an economic crisis?
The CCP authority didn’t say it was.
Jason Ma also said,
statistics from China are mostly forged one.
Jason:"I never talked about when the economic crisis
will happen? Why? What is an economic crisis?
In the western world, if there are two consecutive
quarters of GDP negative growth, it is a recession.
I doubt if China will have a similar situation.
I feel that if the economic problems grow to an unsustainable
level for general public, the crisis will happen.
A scholar inside the regime said the same thing.
It shows that they are watching what we have said before."
Yang Jianli said, the report was spread on the internet
recently, possibly related to the upcoming 18th congress.
Yang Jianli:"CCP top management can’t be unified
with their opinions and speeches.
It is possible that some fractions inside the CCP want to
release some information in an effort to influence the upcoming 18th congress."
Yang Jianli pointed out that if the Chinese economy
can’t be sustainable,
many social conflicts will reveal themselves and
will inevitably lead to political reform.
