【新唐人2012年8月30日訊】最近，中共國務院一位經濟學者撰寫的演講報告，在網上曝光。由於，他預期中國未來將爆發經濟危機，加上他在體制內的身份，而受到民眾關注。但有評論認為，這份講稿分析內容了無新意，專家們在過去多年來已經做過分析。但現在，體制內的人說出同樣的話，證明以前專家所說，中共官員也在了解，而傳播這份報告，或許和即將召開的十八大有關。
《2013年中國將爆發經濟危機》這份報告，最近引起不少大陸網民的關注。這是「中共國務院發展研究中心資源與環境政策研究所」副所長李佐軍，在去年9月17號一個內部報告會上的演講內容。據報導，報告曾在小范圍內流傳，但前不久突然被中國網友廣泛傳播。
報告中，李佐軍提出兩個問題。一是，當前中國國內外的形勢以及未來形勢，怎麼看、怎麼演化？二是，中國的企業和企業家以及普通大眾該怎麼辦？
李佐軍從四個原因談中國正在醞釀的經濟危機。
一是房地產的泡沫，和地方收支失衡的債務問題等經濟層面；二是國際熱錢抽身，和做空中國概念股的外部因素；三是短中長經濟週期定律；以及最主要的第四個原因—-十八大中共政權更替期間，中共將不顧一切維護經濟表面上的平穩發展等。他認為這四個因素，將使中國正在醞釀的經濟危機，在2013年7、8月爆發。
「哈佛大學」政治經濟學博士楊建利：「能夠系統的論述中國經濟會有經濟上的大衰退、經濟危機，這也不多見。有體制內的學者願意這麼系統的論述這個問題我覺得還是值得欽佩的，需要一定的膽量，而且能夠講這樣的實話，還是非常值得讚賞的。」
另一方面，這份報告的觀點在過去多年來，專家們已經多有著墨。
《新唐人》特約經濟評論專家傑森就指出，針對普遍接觸不了海外消息的大陸人來說，這份報告所談的內容確實少見。但報告中的觀點，早已不是秘密。
《新唐人》特約經濟評論專家傑森：「現在中國的經濟問題，它已經成了禿子頭上的虱子，明擺著呢。我們其實已經談得不能再談了，而且海外媒體也都在反覆報導，這不是新的觀點。而且，譬如一些很大的問題，包括國內一些經濟人都談了。因為他（李佐軍）並沒有講出來一些新的，我們沒有看過的數據，沒有很多量化的東西。」
另外，傑森分析，「經濟學」中沒有明確量化「爆發經濟危機」的概念。譬如，目前大陸部分地區的飲食業每個月有15％關閉；又如珠三角地區中小型企業早已成片的倒閉、遷廠；1960年到1962年，中國餓死數千萬人，這些情況是否算經濟危機？但中共當局不承認。
傑森還指出，中國提出的數據多數為中共官員的造假。
傑森：「我一直不談，甚麼時候中國經濟危機爆發，為啥呢？甚麼叫做經濟危機爆發？西方它有一個連續兩個季度GDP負增長，這是經濟衰退的概念，中國會不會出現這個情況（GDP負增長），我持懷疑態度。所以，我就感覺中國的問題，老百姓不能承受的時候，那個社會會整個…會爆發危機。那麼他（李佐軍）作為體制內的人說出這樣的話，就證明我們以前所說的很多事情，他們也在看。」
「哈佛大學」政治經濟學博士楊建利分析，李佐軍去年的報告再次被拿出來傳播，或許和即將召開的十八大有關。
楊建利：「現在中國的高層已經不能夠做到完全的統一口徑、統一思想，所以現在不排除在十八大之前，有某些人甚至包括共產黨內部一些各派系的人，都希望在這時候釋放出訊息來，影響十八大路線方面的決策。」
楊建利指出，中國的經濟如果不能持續發展，所有的社會矛盾都會在這個時刻暴露出來，最後將會釀成政治變革的問題。
採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/黎安安
Is an Economic Crisis Coming? CCP Scholar says so
Recently, a report from economists of China State Council
was spread on the internet.
He anticipated a looming economic crisis. Because of
his position in the regime, what he said gained attention.
However, some critics say it’s not something new,
rather it’s been a familiar topic during the past years.
Only now, it is the opinion from someone within the Regime,
which shows the understanding of CCP top level.
The spreading of the report may be related to
the upcoming 18th Party Congress.
The report named China Will Suffer an Economic Crisis
in 2013 gained attention from netizens.
It was a speech from Li Zuojun, Deputy Director of
State Council Development Research Center,
at an internal meeting on 17th Sept., 2011.
The report had been passed on in small internal circles
and suddenly got hit online.
In the report, Li Zuojun raised 2 questions:
how to view the current situation and
its future development inside and outside of China?
What will the Chinese entrepreneurs and general public do?
He gave out 4 reasons for the upcoming economic crisis.
One is Real Estate bubble bursting and
the debts of local government.
Second is the evacuation of international investment.
Third is the principle of economic cycle.
The forth is during the 18th Party Congress, the CCP will try
with all means to maintain the superficial smooth riding of the economy to facilitate its power transition.
Due to above, he said an economic crisis is brewing now and
will burst in July or August, 2013.
Yang Jianli, a Political Economist of Havard University:
“It is rare to see systematic analysis on China’s future crisis.
It’s admirable that a scholar inside the regime is doing this.
You need courage to tell the truth."
Nevertheless, some opinions in the reports
had been written on by many specialists.
NTD critic Jason Ma said, for the Chinese who were
blocked from outside information, the report is very rare,
however, the opinions inside are no secrets.
Jason Ma: “Problems inside of China’s economy
are so obvious.
We have already talked about it for such a long time.
And it is repeatedly reported by overseas media. It’s not something new.
Besides, some major issues have been well elaborated
by some Chinese economists.
Li’s speech didn’t release new data or statistics."
Jason Ma stated that in economics, there is no clear
measurement for an economic crisis.
For example, in China now,
every month 15% of the food industry are closed.
In the Pearl River Delta, many middle and small
business have closed or moved out.
Another example is from 1960-1962, millions of
Chinese died of starvation.
Are those counted as an economic crisis?
The CCP authority didn’t say it was.
Jason Ma also said,
statistics from China are mostly forged one.
Jason:"I never talked about when the economic crisis
will happen? Why? What is an economic crisis?
In the western world, if there are two consecutive
quarters of GDP negative growth, it is a recession.
I doubt if China will have a similar situation.
I feel that if the economic problems grow to an unsustainable
level for general public, the crisis will happen.
A scholar inside the regime said the same thing.
It shows that they are watching what we have said before."
Yang Jianli said, the report was spread on the internet
recently, possibly related to the upcoming 18th congress.
Yang Jianli:"CCP top management can’t be unified
with their opinions and speeches.
It is possible that some fractions inside the CCP want to
release some information in an effort to influence the upcoming 18th congress."
Yang Jianli pointed out that if the Chinese economy
can’t be sustainable,
many social conflicts will reveal themselves and
will inevitably lead to political reform.
