【新唐人2012年8月23日讯】随着中共领导人胡锦涛、温家宝现身公众视野，“北戴河会议”被认为已经结束，与之相关的十八大人事安排也已经定盘。但最近有报导指称，胡锦涛被迫转向重点栽培胡春华，而分析人士认为，这是某些不满人士在传递信息，同时也说明，北戴河的权力纷争，还没有取得平衡。
据海外媒体报导，在十七大人事安排上，胡锦涛最得意的接班人李克强受挫，汪洋又脚踩胡、温两条船，“胡锦涛被迫转向培养胡春华”。胡春华一度被海外媒体视为胡锦涛的亲密接班人。
报导还说，胡锦涛对胡春华的栽培可谓不遗余力，煞费苦心。不过，胡春华成为下一代团派核心的梦想，不仅受到外界的质疑，团派内部也有相当不同的意见。同时，有“小胡”之称的胡春华时运不济，再加上能力不强，主导河北时出了“三鹿奶粉”这一震惊世界的丑闻，掌控内蒙时又闹出民族纠纷的事件。“以如此执政能力，不知还将出什么样的笑话，惹下什么的祸事。”
据了解，今年的“北戴河会议”，将会为18大人事安排与政策路线定调。那么，目前，“北戴河会议”已经结束，为什么还有这些传言呢？
时事评论员任百鸣在接受《新唐人》采访时说，江泽民和胡锦涛的争斗，是中共高层内斗的主线。胡锦涛当政10年来，一直受制于江在政治局高层安插的势力，难以作为。
时事评论员 任百鸣：“胡在台上没有作为，但是，现在在下台之前，我相信，他一定要要扬眉吐气，指点江山一番，所以十八大的布局，基本上会应该应按照胡的意思在进行处理，那么，江势力他现在借助一些媒体，过去经营的一些势力范围，进行放风，然后来贬低胡。”
任百鸣认为，在此背景下，十八大成为了江、胡20多年来恩恩怨怨的总了断。
任百鸣：“在十八大前夕，江胡势力双方实际上发生了根本性的转变，一是江泽民垂老欲绝，客观上已经难以视事，二是江系看中的接班人薄熙来，因为王立军事件意外翻船落水，江系的众多黑幕也被曝光，三是江一手培养起来的第二中央——周永康的政法委系统，现在遭到了普遍的削权。”
中国社会问题研究人士张健指出，媒体的“放风”，真正目地是要警告胡锦涛，不能用他的意志，来决定下一任接班人，张健还认为，由此可见，各个利益集团之间的权力角斗，目前还没达到最后的平衡点。
张健表示，在十八大人事安排上，有人有所得，有人有所忧，忧的人不但担心自己的利益，同时还要担心被政治对手所清算，因此拚死也要去保住自己想要却没有得到的位置。
中国社会问题研究人士 张健：“这个清算很简单，用反腐、用各种方式都可以把你搞下去，那么，搞下去的话，他们所牵扯的利益，是非常广大的，那么这一集体他们会不满。”
稍早前，香港媒体刊登评论文章分析，邓小平“全退”时，为第三代的江泽民“隔代指定”了第四代的胡锦涛；江泽民“全退”后又为胡锦涛“隔代指定”了第五代的习近平。文章认为，按照这个模式，胡锦涛将隔代指定的团派香火传人是胡春华。
时事评论员汪北稷则认为，现在胡锦涛也要下台了，他也希望自己的权力能够延伸，不过，这个做法却与世界政治文明背道而驰。
时事评论员 汪北稷：“世界上政治文明已经发展到很简单了，权力每时每刻都来自于选民、来自于选票、来自于人民，每时每刻也可以把他收回去，所以最终决定这个政治发展的大事应该是人民的意志、公民的意志，所以这点上来讲的话，中国和世界的政治文明还有一定的差距。”
汪北稷认为，中共政权信息不透明，因此给了小道消息得以存活的机会。同时，也证明，中国政治文明极其落后。
采访编辑/常春 制作/王明宇
Hu Forced to Support “Little Hu"?
With the public appearance of Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) leaders Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao,
the Beidaihe meeting is believed to have ended.
The associated 18th National People’s Congress (NPC)
personnel arrangement has also been settled upon.
It was reported recently Hu Jintao was forced
to focus on training Hu Chunhua.
Analysts believe that these messages were released by
those dissatisfied.
It also reveals the power struggles within the
Beidaihe meeting, that have yet to reach a balance.
According to overseas media reports,
in the arrangements of the 17th NPC personnel,
Hu Jintao’s most proud successor Li Keqiang was frustrated,
Wang Yang sat on the fence between Hu and Wen,
so “Hu Jintao has been forced to focus on
training Hu Chunhua."
Hu Chunhua was once regarded by overseas media
as a close successor of Hu Jintao.
The report also said that Hu Jintao is sparing no effort
in training Hu Chunhua painstakingly.
However, Hu Chunhua’s becoming the power core
of the Youth League faction’s next generation is questioned by the outside world,
and there are even quite different views
within the Youth League faction.
Meanwhile, the Little Hu, Hu Chunhua,
has had bad luck, and his ability is not strong.
When he governed Hebei Province,
the “Sanlu milk powder scandal” shocked the world;
when governing Inner Mongolia, ethnic disputes arose.
“So with such ability to govern, I do not know
what joke and calamity will come about."
A source said that the decision would be made
in the Beidaihe meeting.
Now that the meeting has finished,
why are these rumors still being spread?
Political commentator Ren Baiming said during
an interview with New Tang Dynasty (NTD) TV, that
the conflicts between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao
is the main line of CCP top level infighting.
In the past 10 years when Hu Jintao was in power,
he had always been constrained by the forces placed by Jiang in the Politburo,
and it was difficult to do anything meaningful.
Political commentator Ren Baiming: “Hu Jintao has had
no achievements while in power, but before he steps down,
I believe he must now be elated, and truly taking care of the
political conditions in China.
So the personnel arrangement in the 18th NPC
is currently going according to Hu’s wishes.
Jiang’s forces also utilized some media and forces they
controlled to release their messages, in order to demean Hu."
In this context, the 18th NPC is resolving all issues during
the past 20 years between Hu and Jiang, said Ren Baiming.
Ren Baiming: “Before the 18th NPC, the forces of Hu and
Jiang have changed fundamentally.
Firstly, Jiang was dying and could not take care of any issues;
secondly, Jiang’s chosen successor, Bo Xilai, was removed
due to the Wang Lijun incident and the disclosure of Jiang’s
inside stories; thirdly, the second Central Committee,
the Political and Legal Committee system controlled by Zhou
Yongkang, which was fostered by Jiang, is also losing power."
Zhang Jian, researcher on China’s social issues,
pointed out that
the real purpose of the media’s “spreading rumors"is to warn
Hu Jintao that he cannot use his own will to decide the successor.
Zhang Jian also believes that it reveals that power struggles
among the various interest groups have yet to reach a balance.
On the personnel arrangements of the 18th NPC,
some gain benefits, and some worry, said Zhang Jian.
The worried ones are not only concerned about
losing their own interests,
but are also worried about removal by political opponents.
So they are desperately trying to keep the positions they want.
Zhang Jian: “The removal is simple. You could be kicked out
in the name of anti-corruption or in various ways.
But if they were kicked out, the related vital interests
are very profound, so this faction will be dissatisfied."
Recently, Hong Kong media commented in an article that
when Deng Xiaoping retired, he appointed Hu Jintao,
the 4th generation of leadership, to take over Jiang Zemin,
the 3rd generation of leadership.
When Jiang Zemin retired, he appointed Xi Jinping,
the 5th generation leadership, to be Hu Jintao’s successor.
The article said that in this way, Hu Jintao will
appoint Hu Chunhua, to be Xi’s successor.
Political commentator Wang Beiji said,
Hu Jintao is going to step down.
He also hopes to extend his own power. However,
this practice is contrary to the world’s political civilization.
Political commentator Wang Beiji: “The world political
civilization has developed to a very simple state.
Powers always come from the voters, from the ballot,
from the people.
The people can take it back at any time. So in the end,
it’s the people’s will that decides major political issues.
On this point, the political civilization in China has a gap
with that in the rest of the world."
Wang Beiji said the CCP regime is opaque on information,
thus giving opportunity to gossip.
It also demonstrates the extreme backwardness of
China’s political civilization.
