【新唐人2012年8月23日訊】隨著中共領導人胡錦濤、溫家寶現身公眾視野，「北戴河會議」被認為已經結束，與之相關的十八大人事安排也已經定盤。但最近有報導指稱，胡錦濤被迫轉向重點栽培胡春華，而分析人士認為，這是某些不滿人士在傳遞信息，同時也說明，北戴河的權力紛爭，還沒有取得平衡。
據海外媒體報導，在十七大人事安排上，胡錦濤最得意的接班人李克強受挫，汪洋又腳踩胡、溫兩條船，「胡錦濤被迫轉向培養胡春華」。胡春華一度被海外媒體視爲胡錦濤的親密接班人。
報導還說，胡錦濤對胡春華的栽培可謂不遺餘力，煞費苦心。不過，胡春華成為下一代團派核心的夢想，不僅受到外界的質疑，團派內部也有相當不同的意見。同時，有「小胡」之稱的胡春華時運不濟，再加上能力不強，主導河北時出了「三鹿奶粉」這一震驚世界的醜聞，掌控內蒙時又鬧出民族糾紛的事件。「以如此執政能力，不知還將出甚麼樣的笑話，惹下甚麼的禍事。」
據了解，今年的「北戴河會議」，將會為18大人事安排與政策路線定調。那麼，目前，「北戴河會議」已經結束，為甚麼還有這些傳言呢？
時事評論員任百鳴在接受《新唐人》採訪時說，江澤民和胡錦濤的爭鬥，是中共高層內鬥的主線。胡錦濤當政10年來，一直受制於江在政治局高層安插的勢力，難以作為。
時事評論員 任百鳴：「胡在臺上沒有作為，但是，現在在下臺之前，我相信，他一定要要揚眉吐氣，指點江山一番，所以十八大的佈局，基本上會應該應按照胡的意思在進行處理，那麼，江勢力他現在藉助一些媒體，過去經營的一些勢力範圍，進行放風，然後來貶低胡。」
任百鳴認為，在此背景下，十八大成為了江、胡20多年來恩恩怨怨的總了斷。
任百鳴：「在十八大前夕，江胡勢力雙方實際上發生了根本性的轉變，一是江澤民垂老慾絕，客觀上已經難以視事，二是江系看中的接班人薄熙來，因為王立軍事件意外翻船落水，江系的眾多黑幕也被曝光，三是江一手培養起來的第二中央——周永康的政法委系統，現在遭到了普遍的削權。」
中國社會問題研究人士張健指出，媒體的「放風」，真正目地是要警告胡錦濤，不能用他的意志，來決定下一任接班人，張健還認為，由此可見，各個利益集團之間的權力角鬥，目前還沒達到最後的平衡點。
張健表示，在十八大人事安排上，有人有所得，有人有所憂，憂的人不但擔心自己的利益，同時還要擔心被政治對手所清算，因此拚死也要去保住自己想要卻沒有得到的位置。
中國社會問題研究人士 張健：「這個清算很簡單，用反腐、用各種方式都可以把你搞下去，那麼，搞下去的話，他們所牽扯的利益，是非常廣大的，那麼這一集體他們會不滿。」
稍早前，香港媒體刊登評論文章分析，鄧小平「全退」時，為第三代的江澤民「隔代指定」了第四代的胡錦濤；江澤民「全退」後又為胡錦濤「隔代指定」了第五代的習近平。文章認為，按照這個模式，胡錦濤將隔代指定的團派香火傳人是胡春華。
時事評論員汪北稷則認為，現在胡錦濤也要下臺了，他也希望自己的權力能夠延伸，不過，這個做法卻與世界政治文明背道而馳。
時事評論員 汪北稷：「世界上政治文明已經發展到很簡單了，權力每時每刻都來自於選民、來自於選票、來自於人民，每時每刻也可以把他收回去，所以最終決定這個政治發展的大事應該是人民的意志、公民的意志，所以這點上來講的話，中國和世界的政治文明還有一定的差距。」
汪北稷認為，中共政權信息不透明，因此給了小道消息得以存活的機會。同時，也證明，中國政治文明極其落後。
採訪編輯/常春 製作/王明宇
Hu Forced to Support “Little Hu"?
With the public appearance of Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) leaders Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao,
the Beidaihe meeting is believed to have ended.
The associated 18th National People’s Congress (NPC)
personnel arrangement has also been settled upon.
It was reported recently Hu Jintao was forced
to focus on training Hu Chunhua.
Analysts believe that these messages were released by
those dissatisfied.
It also reveals the power struggles within the
Beidaihe meeting, that have yet to reach a balance.
According to overseas media reports,
in the arrangements of the 17th NPC personnel,
Hu Jintao’s most proud successor Li Keqiang was frustrated,
Wang Yang sat on the fence between Hu and Wen,
so “Hu Jintao has been forced to focus on
training Hu Chunhua."
Hu Chunhua was once regarded by overseas media
as a close successor of Hu Jintao.
The report also said that Hu Jintao is sparing no effort
in training Hu Chunhua painstakingly.
However, Hu Chunhua’s becoming the power core
of the Youth League faction’s next generation is questioned by the outside world,
and there are even quite different views
within the Youth League faction.
Meanwhile, the Little Hu, Hu Chunhua,
has had bad luck, and his ability is not strong.
When he governed Hebei Province,
the “Sanlu milk powder scandal” shocked the world;
when governing Inner Mongolia, ethnic disputes arose.
“So with such ability to govern, I do not know
what joke and calamity will come about."
A source said that the decision would be made
in the Beidaihe meeting.
Now that the meeting has finished,
why are these rumors still being spread?
Political commentator Ren Baiming said during
an interview with New Tang Dynasty (NTD) TV, that
the conflicts between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao
is the main line of CCP top level infighting.
In the past 10 years when Hu Jintao was in power,
he had always been constrained by the forces placed by Jiang in the Politburo,
and it was difficult to do anything meaningful.
Political commentator Ren Baiming: “Hu Jintao has had
no achievements while in power, but before he steps down,
I believe he must now be elated, and truly taking care of the
political conditions in China.
So the personnel arrangement in the 18th NPC
is currently going according to Hu’s wishes.
Jiang’s forces also utilized some media and forces they
controlled to release their messages, in order to demean Hu."
In this context, the 18th NPC is resolving all issues during
the past 20 years between Hu and Jiang, said Ren Baiming.
Ren Baiming: “Before the 18th NPC, the forces of Hu and
Jiang have changed fundamentally.
Firstly, Jiang was dying and could not take care of any issues;
secondly, Jiang’s chosen successor, Bo Xilai, was removed
due to the Wang Lijun incident and the disclosure of Jiang’s
inside stories; thirdly, the second Central Committee,
the Political and Legal Committee system controlled by Zhou
Yongkang, which was fostered by Jiang, is also losing power."
Zhang Jian, researcher on China’s social issues,
pointed out that
the real purpose of the media’s “spreading rumors"is to warn
Hu Jintao that he cannot use his own will to decide the successor.
Zhang Jian also believes that it reveals that power struggles
among the various interest groups have yet to reach a balance.
On the personnel arrangements of the 18th NPC,
some gain benefits, and some worry, said Zhang Jian.
The worried ones are not only concerned about
losing their own interests,
but are also worried about removal by political opponents.
So they are desperately trying to keep the positions they want.
Zhang Jian: “The removal is simple. You could be kicked out
in the name of anti-corruption or in various ways.
But if they were kicked out, the related vital interests
are very profound, so this faction will be dissatisfied."
Recently, Hong Kong media commented in an article that
when Deng Xiaoping retired, he appointed Hu Jintao,
the 4th generation of leadership, to take over Jiang Zemin,
the 3rd generation of leadership.
When Jiang Zemin retired, he appointed Xi Jinping,
the 5th generation leadership, to be Hu Jintao’s successor.
The article said that in this way, Hu Jintao will
appoint Hu Chunhua, to be Xi’s successor.
Political commentator Wang Beiji said,
Hu Jintao is going to step down.
He also hopes to extend his own power. However,
this practice is contrary to the world’s political civilization.
Political commentator Wang Beiji: “The world political
civilization has developed to a very simple state.
Powers always come from the voters, from the ballot,
from the people.
The people can take it back at any time. So in the end,
it’s the people’s will that decides major political issues.
On this point, the political civilization in China has a gap
with that in the rest of the world."
Wang Beiji said the CCP regime is opaque on information,
thus giving opportunity to gossip.
It also demonstrates the extreme backwardness of
China’s political civilization.
