【新唐人2012年8月13日讯】随着十八大召开的临近，政治局常委人选不断受到外界的猜测和议论。同时，中共中央军委也将发生重大人事变动，对于“枪杆子里面出政权”的中共来说，重要性不低于入常。有媒体从胡锦涛是否留任军委主席、中央军委副主席人选，和中央军委委员大换血，这三个层面，分析了军委人事变动的三大焦点。请看报导。
中共中央军委分为主席、副主席和委员3个层次。台湾《中央社》认为，现任主席胡锦涛在十八大会不会续任，是第一个焦点。
胡锦涛在十六大接替江泽民出任中共总书记后，并没有立刻接下军委主席一职，而是继续担任了2年多的军委副主席，到了2005年才真正接掌军权。
外界因而预料，习近平在今年十八大成为中共总书记后，将会像胡锦涛当年一样，暂时先不取得兵符，等过渡期后再扶正。
时事评论员蓝述：“中共的这种用枪杆子来维持政权的这么一个黑帮的组织，为了保证他们权力的平稳过渡所做的这么一个安排是不奇怪的。不让自己这一方面的利益集团，不至于一下子完全失去权力，基本上它都是这么做的。”
中共中央军委副主席目前有3人，其中习近平是第一副主席，另外两人是郭伯雄和徐才厚。以两人的分工来说，郭伯雄掌管军事，而徐才厚则是主导政治。由于年龄限制，预计两人都将在十八大卸任。
《中央社》分析认为，“军委副主席”人选是另一个焦点。郭伯雄和徐才厚卸任后的遗缺由军委委员升任是合理的安排。但是现任的军委委员中，没有政委系统出身，又符合年龄标准的候选人。所以，十八大军委副主席是常万全、吴胜利和许其亮三人中选两个？或者是另外晋升一名政委系统上将？还有待观察。
报导强调，分管政工的军委副主席的渊源很重要，因为这个职务主管军队党务，“党指挥枪”正是中共的传统。
美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士王军涛认为，习近平占据一个军委副主席的位置已经没有悬念。同时，根据从内幕人士获得的消息，李克强也有可能进入军委，也就是出现双接班的情况。
美“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士王军涛：“胡锦涛本来是希望李克强和习近平两个人双双进入接班的渠道，就是以后共产党采取双接班的这样一个体制。就是李克强同时也可以任军委副主席，了解和参与军队的运作。”
由于年龄限制，军委委员面临大换血也已经不可避免。这将涉及国防部长、总参谋部、总政治部、总后勤部、总装备部、二炮、海军和空军主官，重要性不言可喻，是十八大军方人事变动的第三个观察点。
一般而言，中共可能会于十八大前举行中央军委扩大会议，对相关人事做出安排，这三个焦点的谜底到时就会揭晓。
此外，当局日前公布了军队各总部、各军兵种和武警部队等选出的300名中共十八大代表名单。其中军队代表251名，武警代表49名，是十八大中最大的代表团。
涉及薄熙来案的总后勤部政委刘源、二炮政委张海阳、重庆警备区司令朱和平、成都军区田修思等人顺利入选。
时事评论员文昭表示，这些军队将领的入选实际上是中共内部的交易，因为他们在薄熙来倒台后表了态要拥护胡锦涛。只要他们这种表态够坚决，同时能够贯彻胡锦涛的意图，胡锦涛对军中与薄案有牵连的官员网开一面，并且收为己用的做法不足为奇。
采访/常春 编辑/李明飞 后制/王明宇
Leadership Shake-up in CCP Military Committee to be Unveiled Before 18th National Congress
With the 18th National Congress approaching, there remains
much speculation over the candidates for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Standing Committee.
In addition, there will be large changes
in the military personnel.
The CCP believes that “power comes from guns”,
so military personnel are deemed as important as the Standing Committee members.
There are three factors effecting changes
in the CCP’s military personnel.
The first factor is whether or not Hu Jintao will continue
his term as Chairman of the Central Military Committee.
The second factor is the candidates for Vice Chairman
of the Central Military Committee.
The third one is about the possible shake-up
in members of the Central Military Committee.
The CCP Central Military Committee has a structure
of Chairman, Vice Chairman and members.
Taiwanese ‘Central News Agency’ from Taiwan
highlights the current main focus.
The focus is whether or not Hu Jintao
will take up office for another term.
When Hu Jintao took over as General Secretary
from Jiang Zemin, he did not become Chairman of the Central Military Committee.
Instead, Jiang Zemin was in charge for another two years.
It was only after another 2 years that Hu Jintao
took over control of China’s military power.
Xi Jinping is presumed to be in office as the CCP General
Secretary after China’s 18th National Congress.
However, it’s expected that Hu Jintao might
continue to be Chairman of Central Military Committee during this period of power transition.
Political Commentator Lan Shu: “The CCP is an organization
of gangsters. It maintains its power by force.
The arrangement that Hu Jintao continues
to be Chairman of the Military Committee is not unusual.
This way, Hu’s faction won’t have to lose power suddenly.
That’s what they usually do.”
There are three Vice Chairmen in the CCP Central Military
Committee: Xi Jinping, Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou.
Regarding division of responsibilities,
Guo Boxiong is in charge of military affairs. Xu Caihou is in charge of military politics.
However, due to age requirements, both Guo and Xu
will retire at the 18th National Congress.
“Central News Agency” highlights that the candidates
for Vice Chairman will be another focus.
It’s reasonable to consider that current members
of the Central Military Committee could be promoted to be Vice Chairman.
However, the current military committee members are either
not from the military commissar system or not qualified in age.
Will Chang Wanquan, Wu Shengli and Xu Qiliang
be elected as Vice Chairman?
Will a General from the military commissar system
be promoted to be Vice Chairman? It remains to be seen.
The report from the “Central News Agency” emphasizes
that the background of the Vice Chairmen in charge of political affairs is very important.
This position is mainly responsible for military party affairs.
It is a CCP tradition that the military force
is under the command of the party.
Wang Juntao, political science commentator
from Columbia University discussed these issues.
Wang thinks that there is no doubt that Xi Jinping
will be one of the Military Committee Vice Chairmen.
Meanwhile, it is also possible that Li Keqiang is also part
of the military committee, based on insider information.
Wang Juntao: “Hu Jintao plans to make
both Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping be successors.
In the future, the CCP might adopt
a double-successor scheme.
Li Keqiang can be one of the Military Committee Chairmen,
and understand how China’s military system operates.”
Due to the age limits, a large shake-up
in military committee members is inevitable.
This will impact the Minister of Defense, General Staff,
General Political Department, General Logistics Department,
General Armament Department, Second Artillery Corps,
as well as navy and air force officers.
The importance of this cannot be overemphasized.
The CCP may hold a central military meeting to make
personnel arrangement before the 18th National Congress.
Then these three factors will be clear.
In addition, the authorities have announced the names
of 300 representatives from the army headquarters,
services and army ahead of the 18th National Congress.
There are 251 representatives from the military
army and 49 representatives from the police army.
This is the biggest group of representatives
for the 18th National Congress.
Those who are involved in the Bo Xilai case have been
successfully elected as 18th Congress representatives.
Among them are Liu Yuan, Zhang Haiyang,
Zhu Heping and Tian Xiusi.
Liu Yuan is Political Commissar
of the General Logistics Department.
Zhang Haiyang is Political Commissar
of the Second Artillery Corps.
Zhu Heping is the General of Chongqing military region.
Tian Xiusi is from the Chengdu military region.
Commentator Wen Zhao thinks that it’s actually the CCP’s
internal “transaction” for those military leaders to be elected as the 18th military representatives.
Those military tycoons showed their loyalty
to Hu Jintao after the fall of Bo Xilai.
There is no surprise that Hu Jintao
gave the wrongdoers a way out.
This is as long as they are determined to follow Hu’s orders.
