【新唐人2012年8月13日訊】隨著十八大召開的臨近，政治局常委人選不斷受到外界的猜測和議論。同時，中共中央軍委也將發生重大人事變動，對於「槍桿子裡面出政權」的中共來說，重要性不低於入常。有媒體從胡錦濤是否留任軍委主席、中央軍委副主席人選，和中央軍委委員大換血，這三個層面，分析了軍委人事變動的三大焦點。請看報導。
中共中央軍委分為主席、副主席和委員3個層次。台灣《中央社》認爲，現任主席胡錦濤在十八大會不會續任，是第一個焦點。
胡錦濤在十六大接替江澤民出任中共總書記後，並沒有立刻接下軍委主席一職，而是繼續擔任了2年多的軍委副主席，到了2005年才真正接掌軍權。
外界因而預料，習近平在今年十八大成為中共總書記後，將會像胡錦濤當年一樣，暫時先不取得兵符，等過渡期後再扶正。
時事評論員藍述：「中共的這種用槍桿子來維持政權的這麽一個黑幫的組織，爲了保證他們權力的平穩過渡所做的這麽一個安排是不奇怪的。不讓自己這一方面的利益集團，不至於一下子完全失去權力，基本上它都是這麽做的。」
中共中央軍委副主席目前有3人，其中習近平是第一副主席，另外兩人是郭伯雄和徐才厚。以兩人的分工來説，郭伯雄掌管軍事，而徐才厚則是主導政治。由於年齡限制，預計兩人都將在十八大卸任。
《中央社》分析認爲，「軍委副主席」人選是另一個焦點。郭伯雄和徐才厚卸任後的遺缺由軍委委員升任是合理的安排。但是現任的軍委委員中，沒有政委系統出身，又符合年齡標準的候選人。所以，十八大軍委副主席是常萬全、吳勝利和許其亮三人中選兩個？或者是另外晉升一名政委系統上將？還有待觀察。
報導強調，分管政工的軍委副主席的淵源很重要，因為這個職務主管軍隊黨務，「黨指揮槍」正是中共的傳統。
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤認爲，習近平佔據一個軍委副主席的位置已經沒有懸念。同時，根據從內幕人士獲得的消息，李克強也有可能進入軍委，也就是出現雙接班的情況。
美「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤：「胡錦濤本來是希望李克強和習近平兩個人雙雙進入接班的渠道，就是以後共產黨採取雙接班的這樣一個體制。就是李克強同時也可以任軍委副主席，了解和參與軍隊的運作。」
由於年齡限制，軍委委員面臨大換血也已經不可避免。這將涉及國防部長、總參謀部、總政治部、總後勤部、總裝備部、二炮、海軍和空軍主官，重要性不言可喻，是十八大軍方人事變動的第三個觀察點。
一般而言，中共可能會於十八大前舉行中央軍委擴大會議，對相關人事做出安排，這三個焦點的謎底到時就會揭曉。
此外，當局日前公布了軍隊各總部、各軍兵種和武警部隊等選出的300名中共十八大代表名單。其中軍隊代表251名，武警代表49名，是十八大中最大的代表團。
涉及薄熙來案的總後勤部政委劉源、二炮政委張海陽、重慶警備區司令朱和平、成都軍區田修思等人順利入選。
時事評論員文昭表示，這些軍隊將領的入選實際上是中共內部的交易，因爲他們在薄熙來倒臺後表了態要擁護胡錦濤。只要他們這種表態夠堅決，同時能夠貫徹胡錦濤的意圖，胡錦濤對軍中與薄案有牽連的官員網開一面，並且收為己用的做法不足爲奇。
採訪/常春 編輯/李明飛 後製/王明宇
Leadership Shake-up in CCP Military Committee to be Unveiled Before 18th National Congress
With the 18th National Congress approaching, there remains
much speculation over the candidates for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Standing Committee.
In addition, there will be large changes
in the military personnel.
The CCP believes that “power comes from guns”,
so military personnel are deemed as important as the Standing Committee members.
There are three factors effecting changes
in the CCP’s military personnel.
The first factor is whether or not Hu Jintao will continue
his term as Chairman of the Central Military Committee.
The second factor is the candidates for Vice Chairman
of the Central Military Committee.
The third one is about the possible shake-up
in members of the Central Military Committee.
The CCP Central Military Committee has a structure
of Chairman, Vice Chairman and members.
Taiwanese 『Central News Agency』 from Taiwan
highlights the current main focus.
The focus is whether or not Hu Jintao
will take up office for another term.
When Hu Jintao took over as General Secretary
from Jiang Zemin, he did not become Chairman of the Central Military Committee.
Instead, Jiang Zemin was in charge for another two years.
It was only after another 2 years that Hu Jintao
took over control of China’s military power.
Xi Jinping is presumed to be in office as the CCP General
Secretary after China’s 18th National Congress.
However, it’s expected that Hu Jintao might
continue to be Chairman of Central Military Committee during this period of power transition.
Political Commentator Lan Shu: “The CCP is an organization
of gangsters. It maintains its power by force.
The arrangement that Hu Jintao continues
to be Chairman of the Military Committee is not unusual.
This way, Hu’s faction won’t have to lose power suddenly.
That’s what they usually do.”
There are three Vice Chairmen in the CCP Central Military
Committee: Xi Jinping, Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou.
Regarding division of responsibilities,
Guo Boxiong is in charge of military affairs. Xu Caihou is in charge of military politics.
However, due to age requirements, both Guo and Xu
will retire at the 18th National Congress.
“Central News Agency” highlights that the candidates
for Vice Chairman will be another focus.
It』s reasonable to consider that current members
of the Central Military Committee could be promoted to be Vice Chairman.
However, the current military committee members are either
not from the military commissar system or not qualified in age.
Will Chang Wanquan, Wu Shengli and Xu Qiliang
be elected as Vice Chairman?
Will a General from the military commissar system
be promoted to be Vice Chairman? It remains to be seen.
The report from the “Central News Agency” emphasizes
that the background of the Vice Chairmen in charge of political affairs is very important.
This position is mainly responsible for military party affairs.
It is a CCP tradition that the military force
is under the command of the party.
Wang Juntao, political science commentator
from Columbia University discussed these issues.
Wang thinks that there is no doubt that Xi Jinping
will be one of the Military Committee Vice Chairmen.
Meanwhile, it is also possible that Li Keqiang is also part
of the military committee, based on insider information.
Wang Juntao: “Hu Jintao plans to make
both Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping be successors.
In the future, the CCP might adopt
a double-successor scheme.
Li Keqiang can be one of the Military Committee Chairmen,
and understand how China’s military system operates.”
Due to the age limits, a large shake-up
in military committee members is inevitable.
This will impact the Minister of Defense, General Staff,
General Political Department, General Logistics Department,
General Armament Department, Second Artillery Corps,
as well as navy and air force officers.
The importance of this cannot be overemphasized.
The CCP may hold a central military meeting to make
personnel arrangement before the 18th National Congress.
Then these three factors will be clear.
In addition, the authorities have announced the names
of 300 representatives from the army headquarters,
services and army ahead of the 18th National Congress.
There are 251 representatives from the military
army and 49 representatives from the police army.
This is the biggest group of representatives
for the 18th National Congress.
Those who are involved in the Bo Xilai case have been
successfully elected as 18th Congress representatives.
Among them are Liu Yuan, Zhang Haiyang,
Zhu Heping and Tian Xiusi.
Liu Yuan is Political Commissar
of the General Logistics Department.
Zhang Haiyang is Political Commissar
of the Second Artillery Corps.
Zhu Heping is the General of Chongqing military region.
Tian Xiusi is from the Chengdu military region.
Commentator Wen Zhao thinks that it’s actually the CCP’s
internal “transaction” for those military leaders to be elected as the 18th military representatives.
Those military tycoons showed their loyalty
to Hu Jintao after the fall of Bo Xilai.
There is no surprise that Hu Jintao
gave the wrongdoers a way out.
This is as long as they are determined to follow Hu’s orders.
