【新唐人2012年6月25日讯】十八大前，中共的最后一个省级党代会—-北京市党代会，最终确定延迟到6月29号召开。舆论认为，政治局委员兼北京市委书记人选争夺激烈难以定案，可能是延迟的主要原因。而薄熙来案了结后，中共党内各派系利益和权利协商才能完成，估计最高层的人事变动要到最后一刻才有定案。
中共媒体早在去年底就报导，北京市党代会将会在今年5月召开。不过一直到5月下旬，当局都没有发布任何召开会议的消息。此后，《人民网》消息透露北京市党代会6月份召开，正式确认延期。6月21号的北京十届委员会十一次会议决定，党代会将于2012年6月29号到7月3号召开。
北京作为中共最高权力机关的所在地，党代会召开日期被大幅后延，引起外界普遍关注。
有舆论认为，北京党代会的延迟与政治局委员兼北京市委书记刘淇的接班人选等高层人事安排有关。
《北京之春》主编胡平：“按照过去的情况，他也常把北京（党代会）放在最后，因为他怕北京的影响太大，等各地都发生完了之后，那北京就好办一些。这一届显得与众不同的就是说，这次是第一次没有强人指定的接班人；第二就是出了薄熙来这么一件大事，使得上层这个各派力量彼伏增长，出现了很多变数。”
按照中共高层权力交接68岁退休的惯例，现年70岁的刘淇今年势必退休。由于北京市委书记一般由政治局委员兼任，这意味着刘淇的继任者不出意外将进入十八大政治局。
香港《明报》22号报导，北京领导层的新班底已经确定，考虑到北京施政的连续性，刘淇在十八大退休后，将由市长郭金龙接替市委书记，并晋身十八大中央政治局。郭金龙被外界认为是胡锦涛安插到刘淇身边的人马。
此前，英国《路透社》也引述消息人士的话说，郭金龙将在十八大后取代刘淇。不过，另一个可能的人选是出身共青团，有“小胡锦涛”之称的内蒙古自治区党委书记胡春华。
独立评论员韩武认为，作为中共内部斗争的聚焦地，高层对于北京市领导班子的定夺肯定会比其他直辖市都要谨慎。
韩武：“对于薄熙来的问题不能定案，就涉及他这个班子最后定这个政治局委员。因为他这个政治局的委员要比上海、重庆都非常的重要。这个就是看胡锦涛和习近平能否对这个人共同认可。”
不过，也有海外媒体指出，如果按照近年来中共换届形成的惯例，郭金龙接替刘淇的可能性不大。
据《人民网》等官方媒体早前的报导，2007年，被提名为政治局委员预备人选的条件，必须在63周岁以下、行政级别是正省部级和军队正大军区级等。如果按照这个标准，今年65岁的郭金龙已经超龄，除非中共强行打破年龄限制的惯例。
胡平：“各方各派之间的讨价还价还在进行之中，各方在试探、在碰撞。所以也不敢说哪一派的力量就达到了可以拍板的这个程度。所以你现在可以看到各种不同的消息，互相矛盾的消息，跟各派这种放风，去强化自己有关系。”
韩武认为，中共党内各派系利益和权利协商要在薄熙来案尘埃落定后才能完成，因此最高层的人事可能要到最后一刻才有最终定案。
采访/常春 编辑/李明飞 后制/李若琳
Beijing Municipal Party Congress Further Delayed
The Beijing Municipal Party Congress (BMPC) of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was finally put off until late June.
Commentators say, the main reason behind it may be
the intense competition for the candidate for the dual role of Politburo member and Beijing Party chief.
Negotiation of the CCP’s factional interests and power
cannot be finished until Bo Xilai’s case is over.
It is estimated that the CCP’s top-level personnel
assignment can only be finalized at the last minute.
The CCP’s official media reported at the end of 2011 that
the BMPC would open this May.
Until late May, there is no official confirmation on this news.
Afterwards, People.com.cn revealed that
the BMPC will be put off until this June.
On June 21, the 11th Session of the 10th Beijing
Municipal Standing Committee decided that
the BMPC will be held from June 29 to July 3 this year.
The delay of the BMPC, held on the site of the CCP’s
top authorities, has aroused widespread concern.
Commentators say that the postponing is linked to
the Party’s senior personnel appointment.
Such as the successor of Liu Qi, doubling as the current
Party Secretary of Beijing and the CCP’s Politburo member.
Hu Ping (Chief Editor, Beijing Spring magazine): “Based on
past practice, the BMPC was always held last,
after all other regional Party congresses had concluded.
This is due to the impact of Beijing (as a capital).
It is unusual of this session for the 1st time that no
successor is strictly appointed from CCP’s top level.
Secondly, the event of the Bo Xilai Incident has
changed the power structure of internal CCP factions.”
70-year-old Liu Qi is bound to retire this year, according to
the Party’s 68-year-old normal retirement age.
In the CCP’s fashion, the post of Party secretary of Beijing
shall be taken up concurrently by a Politburo member.
This means that Liu’s successor will undoubtedly be
an ex officio Politburo member of the 18th Party Congress.
Hong Kong’s Ming Pao reported on June 22, the CCP’s
Beijing municipal leadership has been finalized.
Beijing’s mayor Guo Jinlong will succeed retiring Liu Qi to
be Beijing’s Party chief, and become the Politburo member.
Guo was believed to be Hu Jintao’s planting around Liu Qi.
Earlier, Reuters quoted sources, saying that Guo Jinlong
will replace Liu Qi after the 18th Party Congress.
Another possible candidate is Hu Chunhua, known as
“Little Hu Jintao”, of the CCP’s Youth League background.
Currently, Hu Chunhua is the Party Secretary of
Inner Mongolia.
Critic Han Wu says, as a hub of
the CCP’s factional power grabs,
Beijing’s leadership team will be more prudently decided
by the CCP’s top level leaders than in decisions for other municipalities.
Han Wu: “Bo’s case hasn’t been finalized thus far, which is
related to the final decision on this Politburo member candidate.
Because the Politburo member’s status in Beijing is
more important than that of Shanghai and Chongqing.
It depends on whether unanimous consent for
this candidate will be reached by Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping."
While, overseas media have predicted that it is
less likely that Guo Jinlong will succeed Liu Qi, based on the CCP’s past practice.
Earlier on, People.com.cn and other CCP’s official media
reported on the qualification for the Politburo member candidate.
In 2007, the age of nominees for Politburo membership
was for him to be under 63 years old, with provincial-level or military region-level ranking.
65-year-old Guo Jinlong exceeds this age limit, unless
the CCP intends to unconventionally lift the age restriction.
Hu Ping: “The factional bargaining is still going on,
they are sounding out and colliding with each other.
So far, none of these factions has the strength to
make a final decision.
That’s why different and conflicting news keeps being
released, it all derives from factional conflict."
Han Wu remarks, the CCP’s factional negotiation on dividing
the interests and power shall be finished only after the Bo Xilai case is closed.
Thus, the Party’s top-level personnel assignment cannot be
finalized until the last minute.
