【新唐人2012年6月25日訊】十八大前，中共的最後一個省級黨代會—-北京市黨代會，最終確定延遲到6月29號召開。輿論認為，政治局委員兼北京市委書記人選爭奪激烈難以定案，可能是延遲的主要原因。而薄熙來案了結後，中共黨內各派系利益和權利協商才能完成，估計最高層的人事變動要到最後一刻才有定案。
中共媒體早在去年底就報導，北京市黨代會將會在今年5月召開。不過一直到5月下旬，當局都沒有發佈任何召開會議的消息。此後，《人民網》消息透露北京市黨代會6月份召開，正式確認延期。6月21號的北京十屆委員會十一次會議決定，黨代會將於2012年6月29號到7月3號召開。
北京作爲中共最高權力機關的所在地，黨代會召開日期被大幅後延，引起外界普遍關注。
有輿論認為，北京黨代會的延遲與政治局委員兼北京市委書記劉淇的接班人選等高層人事安排有關。
《北京之春》主編胡平：「按照過去的情況，他也常把北京（黨代會）放在最後，因爲他怕北京的影響太大，等各地都發生完了之後，那北京就好辦一些。這一屆顯得與衆不同的就是説，這次是第一次沒有強人指定的接班人；第二就是出了薄熙來這麽一件大事，使得上層這個各派力量彼伏增長，出現了很多變數。」
按照中共高層權力交接68歲退休的慣例，現年70歲的劉淇今年勢必退休。由於北京市委書記一般由政治局委員兼任，這意味著劉淇的繼任者不出意外將進入十八大政治局。
香港《明報》22號報導，北京領導層的新班底已經確定，考慮到北京施政的連續性，劉淇在十八大退休後，將由市長郭金龍接替市委書記，並晉身十八大中央政治局。郭金龍被外界認爲是胡錦濤安插到劉淇身邊的人馬。
此前，英國《路透社》也引述消息人士的話說，郭金龍將在十八大後取代劉淇。不過，另一個可能的人選是出身共青團，有「小胡錦濤」之稱的內蒙古自治區黨委書記胡春華。
獨立評論員韓武認爲，作爲中共內部鬥爭的聚焦地，高層對於北京市領導班子的定奪肯定會比其他直轄市都要謹慎。
韓武：「對於薄熙來的問題不能定案，就涉及他這個班子最後定這個政治局委員。因爲他這個政治局的委員要比上海、重慶都非常的重要。這個就是看胡錦濤和習近平能否對這個人共同認可。」
不過，也有海外媒體指出，如果按照近年來中共換屆形成的慣例，郭金龍接替劉淇的可能性不大。
據《人民網》等官方媒體早前的報導，2007年，被提名為政治局委員預備人選的條件，必須在63週歲以下、行政級別是正省部級和軍隊正大軍區級等。如果按照這個標準，今年65歲的郭金龍已經超齡，除非中共強行打破年齡限制的慣例。
胡平：「各方各派之間的討價還價還在進行之中，各方在試探、在踫撞。所以也不敢說哪一派的力量就達到了可以拍板的這個程度。所以你現在可以看到各種不同的消息，互相矛盾的消息，跟各派這種放風，去強化自己有關係。」
韓武認爲，中共黨內各派系利益和權利協商要在薄熙來案塵埃落定後才能完成，因此最高層的人事可能要到最後一刻才有最終定案。
採訪/常春 編輯/李明飛 後製/李若琳
Beijing Municipal Party Congress Further Delayed
The Beijing Municipal Party Congress (BMPC) of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was finally put off until late June.
Commentators say, the main reason behind it may be
the intense competition for the candidate for the dual role of Politburo member and Beijing Party chief.
Negotiation of the CCP’s factional interests and power
cannot be finished until Bo Xilai’s case is over.
It is estimated that the CCP’s top-level personnel
assignment can only be finalized at the last minute.
The CCP’s official media reported at the end of 2011 that
the BMPC would open this May.
Until late May, there is no official confirmation on this news.
Afterwards, People.com.cn revealed that
the BMPC will be put off until this June.
On June 21, the 11th Session of the 10th Beijing
Municipal Standing Committee decided that
the BMPC will be held from June 29 to July 3 this year.
The delay of the BMPC, held on the site of the CCP’s
top authorities, has aroused widespread concern.
Commentators say that the postponing is linked to
the Party’s senior personnel appointment.
Such as the successor of Liu Qi, doubling as the current
Party Secretary of Beijing and the CCP’s Politburo member.
Hu Ping (Chief Editor, Beijing Spring magazine): “Based on
past practice, the BMPC was always held last,
after all other regional Party congresses had concluded.
This is due to the impact of Beijing (as a capital).
It is unusual of this session for the 1st time that no
successor is strictly appointed from CCP’s top level.
Secondly, the event of the Bo Xilai Incident has
changed the power structure of internal CCP factions.”
70-year-old Liu Qi is bound to retire this year, according to
the Party’s 68-year-old normal retirement age.
In the CCP’s fashion, the post of Party secretary of Beijing
shall be taken up concurrently by a Politburo member.
This means that Liu’s successor will undoubtedly be
an ex officio Politburo member of the 18th Party Congress.
Hong Kong’s Ming Pao reported on June 22, the CCP’s
Beijing municipal leadership has been finalized.
Beijing’s mayor Guo Jinlong will succeed retiring Liu Qi to
be Beijing’s Party chief, and become the Politburo member.
Guo was believed to be Hu Jintao’s planting around Liu Qi.
Earlier, Reuters quoted sources, saying that Guo Jinlong
will replace Liu Qi after the 18th Party Congress.
Another possible candidate is Hu Chunhua, known as
“Little Hu Jintao”, of the CCP’s Youth League background.
Currently, Hu Chunhua is the Party Secretary of
Inner Mongolia.
Critic Han Wu says, as a hub of
the CCP’s factional power grabs,
Beijing’s leadership team will be more prudently decided
by the CCP’s top level leaders than in decisions for other municipalities.
Han Wu: “Bo’s case hasn’t been finalized thus far, which is
related to the final decision on this Politburo member candidate.
Because the Politburo member’s status in Beijing is
more important than that of Shanghai and Chongqing.
It depends on whether unanimous consent for
this candidate will be reached by Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping."
While, overseas media have predicted that it is
less likely that Guo Jinlong will succeed Liu Qi, based on the CCP’s past practice.
Earlier on, People.com.cn and other CCP’s official media
reported on the qualification for the Politburo member candidate.
In 2007, the age of nominees for Politburo membership
was for him to be under 63 years old, with provincial-level or military region-level ranking.
65-year-old Guo Jinlong exceeds this age limit, unless
the CCP intends to unconventionally lift the age restriction.
Hu Ping: “The factional bargaining is still going on,
they are sounding out and colliding with each other.
So far, none of these factions has the strength to
make a final decision.
That’s why different and conflicting news keeps being
released, it all derives from factional conflict."
Han Wu remarks, the CCP’s factional negotiation on dividing
the interests and power shall be finished only after the Bo Xilai case is closed.
Thus, the Party’s top-level personnel assignment cannot be
finalized until the last minute.
