【新唐人2012年5月13日讯】海外媒体日前报导，中共总书记胡锦涛打算缩编政治局，并且，正省部级官员已用投票方式选举十八大政治局常委人选。评论认为，缩编政治局有利于权力集中于团派，省部级官员与其说是民主选举不如说是派系斗争在扩展，而只要江系周永康没倒台，中共想从内部走向民主很困难。
据《路透社》消息，中共总书记胡锦涛打算将中央政治局常委9人组织架构缩小，恢复成十六大以前的7人。《路透》预测说，如果是7席的常委组织，胡锦涛派系能拿到3席，这样有助确保他的发言权。
时事评论家陈破空：“政治局常委的人数对中共的权力布局是一个非常大的影响。设7个人的话，对胡锦涛这派比较有利，因为胡锦涛有可能留任军委主席两年。从表面来看，人数越多好像越是有个党内民主的姿态，但实际上由于权力的稀释，任何人都做不了一个决定，就是互相进行拉锯战。”
中共目前政治局有24位委员。十八大时，除59岁的习近平和57岁的李克强外，按照“七上八下”的年龄限制，还有8位可以继续留任，他们是62岁的李源朝、67岁的俞正声、66岁的张高丽、66岁的张德江、64岁的王岐山、65岁的刘云山、67岁的刘延东、和57岁的汪洋。
时事评论家陈破空：“人数变化是中共权力斗争的一部分，也是中共巩固权力还是削弱权力的一部分，也是中共内部分裂与否、分裂到什么程度的一个指标。总的来说，人数越多，分裂的可能越大。”
另外，《多维新闻网》也放出消息，几天前，曾有来自中国各地及中央部门的大约200名正省部级高官，在北京以民主投票的方式，推选出十八大后中央政治局常委的9位候选人。
时事评论家陈破空：“这个在表面上扩大党内民主的同时，恐怕是有加剧派系斗争的趋势。有可能因为派系斗争在高层无法摆平，那么有一方人认为在中下层找一些地方首长的选举，可能对他们有利。这就要看团派、江系和太子党在全国各地的人马有多少，现在地方上的派系来说，团派可能略要压倒江系，那么有助于巩固胡锦涛的权力。”
在王立军事件、薄熙来下台后，中共总书记胡锦涛在4月中旬的一份讲话中承认，所谓“党和国家正处于非常时期”。
5月初，据《大纪元时报》一则没有被证实的消息透露，中共高层达成了“修改宪法、开放党禁、平反六四，和军队国家化”等四点共识。分析认为，这个时候北京释放这个消息，不排除是测试社会反应。
时事评论家陈破空：“这个传闻中的四点共识，恐怕是有人提出的解决问题的方案，但是中共他们党内的权力斗争，要看力量对比。四点设想当然是很好，但是周永康还在党内占据要津的情况下，要实现四点共识，目前看并不乐观。”
有海外学者分析，中共高层现在是胡温团派、江系血债派和太子党三方组成的不稳定机构，由于王立军、薄熙来事件暴露了江系谋反的阴谋，使中共权力交接更加复杂。
采访/陈汉 编辑/李莲 后制/孙宁
Hu Jintao Takes Rare Step for 18th CCP National Congress.
Media recently reported that CCP General Secretary
Hu Jintao intends to reduce the size of the Politburo.
In addition, provincial and ministerial level officials will hold
elections for the 18th Politburo Standing Committee.
Commentators say downsizing the Politburo is good for the
power concentration of Communist Youth League (CYL).
There are currently no democratic elections for provincial
and ministerial level officials, but just the factional struggles.
However, if Zhou Yongkang, from the Jiang Zemin faction,
doesn’t step down, it is difficult to reach a democracy.
We have the detailed report.
According to Reuters, General Secretary Hu Jintao intends
to reduce the Politburo Standing Committee team from
9 members to 7 before the 18th CCP National Congress.
Reuters states that if the Politburo Standing Committee
becomes a 7-member team and
the Hu Jintao faction can take three positions,
then Hu can gain the right to speak.
Commentator Chen Pokong: “The number of CCP Politburo
Standing Committee members has a large impact on the CCP power layout.
Hu can benefit from a 7 member committee.
He can maintain the Central Military Commission Chairman
position for another two years.
It seems that this represents a form of democracy
within the CCP.
However, no one can make a decision due to the dilution
of power–they just fight with each other.”
There are 24 members in the Politburo.
For the 18th CCP National Congress, besides Xi Jinping
who is 59 years old, and Li Keqiang, who is 57,
there will be 8 members keeping their position.
This is according to the “retirement in 80” rule.
They are: Li Yuanchao (62), Yu Zhengshen (67),
Zhang Gaoli (66), Zhang Dejiang (66), Wang Qishang (64)
Liu Yunshan (65) Liu Yandong (67) and Wang Yang (57).
Chen Pokong: “The change of the number of committee
members’ reflects the CCP’s power struggle.
It is also a factor in determining the CCP level of division.
Generally speaking, more members brings higher
possibility of CCP division.”
“Multidimensional News” reports that several days ago,
approximately 200 provincial and ministerial level officials
voted to elect the 18th Politburo Standing.
Chen Pokong: “The election does not represent democracy
in the CCP. Actually, it reflects the trends of factional struggles.
Maybe the struggles among top-level officals are too intense.
They have to ask for help from local officals through elections.
It depends on the influence of the CYL faction, Jiang faction
and princelings of troops throughout the country.
Currently, the CYL faction may overwhelm the Jiang faction,
and this situation may help Hu Jintao to consolidate power.”
After the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai events, Hu Jintao
admitted in a speech in mid-April that the CCP and the country are both in a special period.
In early May, according to an unconfirmed “Epoch Times”
source, top level CCP reached a four-point consensus.
This included ammending the constitution, allowing for an
oppositional political party, the vindication of June 4 incident, and military nationalization”.
Chen Pokong: “The four points seem to be solutions
provided by someone.
Don’t ignore the balance of power among different factions.
The four envisaged points sound great, however, it is difficult
to achieve if Zhou Yongkan keeps his position in the CCP.”
Overseas scholars analyze that CCP top levels are unstable
due to the struggle among the CYL faction, Jiang faction and princelings of military troops.
The Wang and Bo events exposed the rebellion conspiracy
of the Jiang faction.
This increased the complexity of the CCP power transition.
