【新唐人2012年5月13日訊】海外媒體日前報導，中共總書記胡錦濤打算縮編政治局，並且，正省部級官員已用投票方式選舉十八大政治局常委人選。評論認為，縮編政治局有利於權力集中於團派，省部級官員與其說是民主選舉不如說是派系鬥爭在擴展，而只要江系周永康沒倒臺，中共想從內部走向民主很困難。
據《路透社》消息，中共總書記胡錦濤打算將中央政治局常委9人組織架構縮小，恢復成十六大以前的7人。《路透》預測說，如果是7席的常委組織，胡錦濤派系能拿到3席，這樣有助確保他的發言權。
時事評論家陳破空：「政治局常委的人數對中共的權力佈局是一個非常大的影響。設7個人的話，對胡錦濤這派比較有利，因為胡錦濤有可能留任軍委主席兩年。從表面來看，人數越多好像越是有個黨內民主的姿態，但實際上由於權力的稀釋，任何人都做不了一個決定，就是互相進行拉鋸戰。」
中共目前政治局有24位委員。十八大時，除59歲的習近平和57歲的李克強外，按照「七上八下」的年齡限制，還有8位可以繼續留任，他們是62歲的李源朝、67歲的俞正聲、66歲的張高麗、66歲的張德江、64歲的王岐山、65歲的劉雲山、67歲的劉延東、和57歲的汪洋。
時事評論家陳破空：「人數變化是中共權力鬥爭的一部分，也是中共鞏固權力還是削弱權力的一部分，也是中共內部分裂與否、分裂到甚麼程度的一個指標。總的來說，人數越多，分裂的可能越大。」
另外，《多維新聞網》也放出消息，幾天前，曾有來自中國各地及中央部門的大約200名正省部級高官，在北京以民主投票的方式，推選出十八大後中央政治局常委的9位候選人。
時事評論家陳破空：「這個在表面上擴大黨內民主的同時，恐怕是有加劇派系鬥爭的趨勢。有可能因為派系鬥爭在高層無法擺平，那麼有一方人認為在中下層找一些地方首長的選舉，可能對他們有利。這就要看團派、江系和太子黨在全國各地的人馬有多少，現在地方上的派系來說，團派可能略要壓倒江系，那麼有助於鞏固胡錦濤的權力。」
在王立軍事件、薄熙來下臺後，中共總書記胡錦濤在4月中旬的一份講話中承認，所謂「黨和國家正處於非常時期」。
5月初，據《大紀元時報》一則沒有被證實的消息透露，中共高層達成了「修改憲法、開放黨禁、平反六四，和軍隊國家化」等四點共識。分析認為，這個時候北京釋放這個消息，不排除是測試社會反應。
時事評論家陳破空：「這個傳聞中的四點共識，恐怕是有人提出的解決問題的方案，但是中共他們黨內的權力鬥爭，要看力量對比。四點設想當然是很好，但是周永康還在黨內佔據要津的情況下，要實現四點共識，目前看並不樂觀。」
有海外學者分析，中共高層現在是胡溫團派、江系血債派和太子黨三方組成的不穩定機構，由於王立軍、薄熙來事件暴露了江系謀反的陰謀，使中共權力交接更加複雜。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/李蓮 後製/孫寧
Hu Jintao Takes Rare Step for 18th CCP National Congress.
Media recently reported that CCP General Secretary
Hu Jintao intends to reduce the size of the Politburo.
In addition, provincial and ministerial level officials will hold
elections for the 18th Politburo Standing Committee.
Commentators say downsizing the Politburo is good for the
power concentration of Communist Youth League (CYL).
There are currently no democratic elections for provincial
and ministerial level officials, but just the factional struggles.
However, if Zhou Yongkang, from the Jiang Zemin faction,
doesn’t step down, it is difficult to reach a democracy.
We have the detailed report.
According to Reuters, General Secretary Hu Jintao intends
to reduce the Politburo Standing Committee team from
9 members to 7 before the 18th CCP National Congress.
Reuters states that if the Politburo Standing Committee
becomes a 7-member team and
the Hu Jintao faction can take three positions,
then Hu can gain the right to speak.
Commentator Chen Pokong: “The number of CCP Politburo
Standing Committee members has a large impact on the CCP power layout.
Hu can benefit from a 7 member committee.
He can maintain the Central Military Commission Chairman
position for another two years.
It seems that this represents a form of democracy
within the CCP.
However, no one can make a decision due to the dilution
of power–they just fight with each other.”
There are 24 members in the Politburo.
For the 18th CCP National Congress, besides Xi Jinping
who is 59 years old, and Li Keqiang, who is 57,
there will be 8 members keeping their position.
This is according to the “retirement in 80” rule.
They are: Li Yuanchao (62), Yu Zhengshen (67),
Zhang Gaoli (66), Zhang Dejiang (66), Wang Qishang (64)
Liu Yunshan (65) Liu Yandong (67) and Wang Yang (57).
Chen Pokong: “The change of the number of committee
members’ reflects the CCP’s power struggle.
It is also a factor in determining the CCP level of division.
Generally speaking, more members brings higher
possibility of CCP division.”
“Multidimensional News” reports that several days ago,
approximately 200 provincial and ministerial level officials
voted to elect the 18th Politburo Standing.
Chen Pokong: “The election does not represent democracy
in the CCP. Actually, it reflects the trends of factional struggles.
Maybe the struggles among top-level officals are too intense.
They have to ask for help from local officals through elections.
It depends on the influence of the CYL faction, Jiang faction
and princelings of troops throughout the country.
Currently, the CYL faction may overwhelm the Jiang faction,
and this situation may help Hu Jintao to consolidate power.”
After the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai events, Hu Jintao
admitted in a speech in mid-April that the CCP and the country are both in a special period.
In early May, according to an unconfirmed “Epoch Times”
source, top level CCP reached a four-point consensus.
This included ammending the constitution, allowing for an
oppositional political party, the vindication of June 4 incident, and military nationalization”.
Chen Pokong: “The four points seem to be solutions
provided by someone.
Don’t ignore the balance of power among different factions.
The four envisaged points sound great, however, it is difficult
to achieve if Zhou Yongkan keeps his position in the CCP.”
Overseas scholars analyze that CCP top levels are unstable
due to the struggle among the CYL faction, Jiang faction and princelings of military troops.
The Wang and Bo events exposed the rebellion conspiracy
of the Jiang faction.
This increased the complexity of the CCP power transition.
