【新唐人2012年5月2日讯】大陆维权人士陈光诚，避开当局的严密监视，逃亡到美国驻北京大使馆，事件震惊世界，人们不禁把目光对准迫害陈光诚的元凶——中共中央政法委书记周永康。《路透社》分析周永康如今的处境，像棒球场上的“两好球”即将被“三振出局”。同时有评论认为，薄熙来、陈光诚接连夹击政法委，可能更加促使胡温拿下周永康。
《路透社》4月30号发表文章，以棒球场上的“两好球”，形容周永康如今的处境。
美国“乔治梅森大学”教授章天亮表示，《路透社》认为周永康已经面临被“三振出局”的命运。
章天亮：“就是王立军、薄熙来和陈光诚这三次事件都是对周永康重大打击，他引用了棒球里面的说法，就是一个选手只能三次击球，如果你都打不中的话，你就出局了，那么现在周永康等于是被打击了三次，《路透社》他觉的周永康已经是要出局了。”
章天亮表示，西方媒体曾经报导，中共处理薄熙来的时候，周永康是唯一支持薄熙来的，包括两会期间他给薄熙来站台，去肯定“重庆模式”。
章天亮：“包括现在很多外电，包括这个《大纪元时报》，都在报导，周永康和薄熙来有个政变的计划，准备把习近平拿下去，所以就是说，这个薄熙来这个事情跟周永康捆在一块，这个大家早就看得很清楚了。”
章天亮还表示，“陈光诚事件”是一个国际性的事件，包括《纽约时报》、《CNN》和好莱坞影星—-蝙蝠侠去采访陈光诚时，都被看守的人把他们打走了。章天亮认为，能够给外交部找麻烦的一定是政治局往上一级，那么也就是周永康。
章天亮：“大家都知道，政法委是中国践踏法治的一个源头，所以整个对陈光诚这种围困、殴打，这种几百人耗费大量的钱财，这种维稳的思维，是周永康他一贯的做法，这个事情出来之后，几乎没有什么异议的，大家都说这是周永康的问题。”
时事评论员史达也表示，周永康在这方面难辞其咎。
时事评论员史达：“政法委大家也知道是超越一切，司法也好、超越一切政权、其他组织也好的一个超权力，那么只有周永康在直接指挥这个系统，造成那么多的冤案，所以这个我觉的是很容易解释的，周永康在这个方面是难辞其咎。”
《BBC》引述英国《卫报》的报导说，以温家宝总理为首的改革派获得了自1989年以来最好的机会，他们可以争取更大的透明度、明确责任和法制，但是他们必须要克服来自保守派的反对，那些人喜欢黑箱操作和暴力镇压，以确保党的统治能够延续。
章天亮分析，周永康与胡温对决，现在到了一个转折点。
章天亮：“如果胡温能够胜的话，那么中国可能就会走向更大的透明度，包括重建法制，如果周永康能够胜出的话，中国就面临着更大的黑箱操作，可能前景更可怕”
不过，章天亮认为，不管从现在的民意来讲，还是从胡温所掌握的实力来看，周永康现在已经没有什么希望了。
采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉
***********************
Analysis: Zhou Yongkang After “Two Strikes”
Mainland Chinese human rights activist Chen Guangcheng
fled the regime’s monitoring to the U.S Embassy in Beijing.
This incident shocked the world and drew attention
to the main culprit behind the persecution of Chen,
the CCP Political and Legislative Affairs Committee (PLAC)
Secretary Zhou Yongkang.
Reuters compared Zhou Yongkang’s current situation
to two strikes on the baseball field.
Other believes the Bo Xilai and Chen Guangcheng’s joint attacks
on the Political and Legislative Affairs Committee (PLAC) might push Hu and Wen to take out Zhou Yongkang.
Reuters’article on April 30 uses two strikes on the baseball
field to describe Zhou Yongkang’s current situation.
US’s George Mason University, Professor Zhang Tianliang
expressed that Reuters seems to believe Zhou Yongkang’s fated to strike out.
Zhang Tianliang, “The Wang Lijun, Bo Xilai, and Chen
Guangcheng incidents were all major blows against Zhou Yongkang.
It (Reuters) use baseball as a analogy, that is, each player
has three chances to hit the ball.
If all three chances are missed, the player strikes out.
Zhou Yongkang has already taken three hits;
Reuters seems to believe he is already out.”
Zhang Tianliang expressed, it was reported by western media
that when the CCP punished Bo Xilai,
Zhou Yongkang was the only supporter of Bo, going to
support (Bo’s) “Chongqing model” during the Two Meetings.
Zhang Tianliang, “Right now many foreign media,
including the Epoch Times, are all reporting that
Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai were planning a coup to
drag down Xi Jinping.
That is to say, Zhou Yongkang had ties with Bo Xilai,
this was very clear to everyone.”
Zhang Tianliang also expressed that the Chen Guangcheng
incident is an international event.
The New York Times, CNN, and Hollywood star Christian
Bale all tried to interview him, but were chased away by guards.
Zhang Tianliang expressed that those who bring trouble
to the Foreign Ministry must be higher than the Politburo, such as Zhou Yongkang.
Zhang Tianliang, “Everyone knows the PLAC is
a source of power abuse in China,
the house arrest and beating of Chen Guangcheng
involved hundreds of people and large sums of money.
Such a mentality of stability overrides all,
this is Zhou Yongkang’s usual practice.
When this happened, almost without a doubt,
everyone said this was caused by Zhou Yongkang.”
Social commentator Shi Da also expressed that
Zhou Yongkang can’t escape responsibility.
Shi Da, “Everyone knows that the PLAC is above all,
whether it is the legal system, political entities, it is a super authority above all other entities.
Only Zhou Yongkang has direct control of this system,
causing so many grievances and injustices,
so this is really easy to explain – Zhou Yongkang can’t escape
being held accountable.”
The BBC quoted a report by the Guardian, which stated
the reformists headed by Premier Wen Jiabao have gained the best opportunity since 1989;
they can strive for greater transparency,
ensure rule of law, and clarify responsibilities.
It went on to say that they must overcome opposition from
those who engage in black operations and violent suppression to maintain and prolong the CCP rule.
Zhang Tianliang believes that this is a turning point
in the fight between Hu, Wen, and Zhou Yongkang.
Zhang Tianliang, “If Hu and Wen win, then China might move
toward greater transparency, re-establishing the legal system,
if Zhou Yongkang wins, then China will become a even
bigger black operation with a terrifying future.”
However, Zhang Tianliang believes from a public will standpoint,
or from the standpoint of the authority that Hu and Wen have, Zhou Yongkang is already in a hopeless situation.
