【新唐人2012年5月2日訊】大陸維權人士陳光誠，避開當局的嚴密監視，逃亡到美國駐北京大使館，事件震驚世界，人們不禁把目光對準迫害陳光誠的元兇——中共中央政法委書記周永康。《路透社》分析周永康如今的處境，像棒球場上的「兩好球」即將被「三振出局」。同時有評論認為，薄熙來、陳光誠接連夾擊政法委，可能更加促使胡溫拿下週永康。
《路透社》4月30號發表文章，以棒球場上的「兩好球」，形容周永康如今的處境。
美國「喬治梅森大學」教授章天亮表示，《路透社》認為周永康已經面臨被「三振出局」的命運。
章天亮：「就是王立軍、薄熙來和陳光誠這三次事件都是對周永康重大打擊，他引用了棒球裡面的說法，就是一個選手只能三次擊球，如果你都打不中的話，你就出局了，那麼現在周永康等於是被打擊了三次，《路透社》他覺的周永康已經是要出局了。」
章天亮表示，西方媒體曾經報導，中共處理薄熙來的時候，周永康是唯一支持薄熙來的，包括兩會期間他給薄熙來站臺，去肯定「重慶模式」。
章天亮：「包括現在很多外電，包括這個《大紀元時報》，都在報導，周永康和薄熙來有個政變的計劃，準備把習近平拿下去，所以就是說，這個薄熙來這個事情跟周永康捆在一塊，這個大家早就看得很清楚了。」
章天亮還表示，「陳光誠事件」是一個國際性的事件，包括《紐約時報》、《CNN》和好萊塢影星—-蝙蝠俠去採訪陳光誠時，都被看守的人把他們打走了。章天亮認為，能夠給外交部找麻煩的一定是政治局往上一級，那麼也就是周永康。
章天亮：「大家都知道，政法委是中國踐踏法治的一個源頭，所以整個對陳光誠這種圍困、毆打，這種幾百人耗費大量的錢財，這種維穩的思維，是周永康他一貫的做法，這個事情出來之後，幾乎沒有甚麼異議的，大家都說這是周永康的問題。」
時事評論員史達也表示，周永康在這方面難辭其咎。
時事評論員史達：「政法委大家也知道是超越一切，司法也好、超越一切政權、其他組織也好的一個超權力，那麼只有周永康在直接指揮這個系統，造成那麼多的冤案，所以這個我覺的是很容易解釋的，周永康在這個方面是難辭其咎。」
《BBC》引述英國《衛報》的報導說，以溫家寶總理為首的改革派獲得了自1989年以來最好的機會，他們可以爭取更大的透明度、明確責任和法制，但是他們必須要克服來自保守派的反對，那些人喜歡黑箱操作和暴力鎮壓，以確保黨的統治能夠延續。
章天亮分析，周永康與胡溫對決，現在到了一個轉折點。
章天亮：「如果胡溫能夠勝的話，那麼中國可能就會走向更大的透明度，包括重建法制，如果周永康能夠勝出的話，中國就面臨著更大的黑箱操作，可能前景更可怕」
不過，章天亮認為，不管從現在的民意來講，還是從胡溫所掌握的實力來看，周永康現在已經沒有甚麼希望了。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉
***********************
Analysis: Zhou Yongkang After “Two Strikes”
Mainland Chinese human rights activist Chen Guangcheng
fled the regime’s monitoring to the U.S Embassy in Beijing.
This incident shocked the world and drew attention
to the main culprit behind the persecution of Chen,
the CCP Political and Legislative Affairs Committee (PLAC)
Secretary Zhou Yongkang.
Reuters compared Zhou Yongkang’s current situation
to two strikes on the baseball field.
Other believes the Bo Xilai and Chen Guangcheng’s joint attacks
on the Political and Legislative Affairs Committee (PLAC) might push Hu and Wen to take out Zhou Yongkang.
Reuters’article on April 30 uses two strikes on the baseball
field to describe Zhou Yongkang’s current situation.
US’s George Mason University, Professor Zhang Tianliang
expressed that Reuters seems to believe Zhou Yongkang’s fated to strike out.
Zhang Tianliang, “The Wang Lijun, Bo Xilai, and Chen
Guangcheng incidents were all major blows against Zhou Yongkang.
It (Reuters) use baseball as a analogy, that is, each player
has three chances to hit the ball.
If all three chances are missed, the player strikes out.
Zhou Yongkang has already taken three hits;
Reuters seems to believe he is already out.”
Zhang Tianliang expressed, it was reported by western media
that when the CCP punished Bo Xilai,
Zhou Yongkang was the only supporter of Bo, going to
support (Bo’s) “Chongqing model” during the Two Meetings.
Zhang Tianliang, “Right now many foreign media,
including the Epoch Times, are all reporting that
Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai were planning a coup to
drag down Xi Jinping.
That is to say, Zhou Yongkang had ties with Bo Xilai,
this was very clear to everyone.”
Zhang Tianliang also expressed that the Chen Guangcheng
incident is an international event.
The New York Times, CNN, and Hollywood star Christian
Bale all tried to interview him, but were chased away by guards.
Zhang Tianliang expressed that those who bring trouble
to the Foreign Ministry must be higher than the Politburo, such as Zhou Yongkang.
Zhang Tianliang, “Everyone knows the PLAC is
a source of power abuse in China,
the house arrest and beating of Chen Guangcheng
involved hundreds of people and large sums of money.
Such a mentality of stability overrides all,
this is Zhou Yongkang’s usual practice.
When this happened, almost without a doubt,
everyone said this was caused by Zhou Yongkang.”
Social commentator Shi Da also expressed that
Zhou Yongkang can’t escape responsibility.
Shi Da, “Everyone knows that the PLAC is above all,
whether it is the legal system, political entities, it is a super authority above all other entities.
Only Zhou Yongkang has direct control of this system,
causing so many grievances and injustices,
so this is really easy to explain – Zhou Yongkang can’t escape
being held accountable.”
The BBC quoted a report by the Guardian, which stated
the reformists headed by Premier Wen Jiabao have gained the best opportunity since 1989;
they can strive for greater transparency,
ensure rule of law, and clarify responsibilities.
It went on to say that they must overcome opposition from
those who engage in black operations and violent suppression to maintain and prolong the CCP rule.
Zhang Tianliang believes that this is a turning point
in the fight between Hu, Wen, and Zhou Yongkang.
Zhang Tianliang, “If Hu and Wen win, then China might move
toward greater transparency, re-establishing the legal system,
if Zhou Yongkang wins, then China will become a even
bigger black operation with a terrifying future.”
However, Zhang Tianliang believes from a public will standpoint,
or from the standpoint of the authority that Hu and Wen have, Zhou Yongkang is already in a hopeless situation.
