【新唐人2012年4月23日讯】薄熙来倒台后，重庆检察系统大洗牌，38区县检察长全换人，而军队高层也有传出表态效忠胡锦涛的。外界普遍认为，薄周大势已去。但是最近中国网络和言论自由的控制又转向严重，“血债派”的老大江泽民也传闻露面，有人认为“周永康现在没事了，等十八大以后再看结局。”学者分析，这可能是个假消息。并且认为，如果不清算周永康，结果就是养虎为患。一起来看看他们怎么说。
前一阵媒体大量披露，周永康企图发动政变，扳倒习近平。周永康及家族的丑闻在中国网络上也开始解禁。但最近中国国内封网和打击言论自由又变得严峻起来，很多敢言人士像野火、高瑜等，都被当局找去谈话“喝茶”。
21号，有海外媒体放出消息，“十八大前周永康不会有所变动”。
美国“乔治梅森大学”教授章天亮认为，从历史上来看，得罪下一代接班人的人都没有好下场，从商鞅到和珅无不例外，不过如果胡温不能果断处理周永康，他们会死的很惨，亲友也会受到牵连。
章天亮：“这种事情如果不处理的话，最后的结果就是养虎为患，如果将来真的让薄熙来、周永康上台的话，他们会把胡温整个抛出来的，那胡温会死得很惨的。我认为胡温不会放过周永康，因为像搞政变这样的事情，如果你要是说让他平安退休，那等于是说大家都可以搞政变。我想周永康没有给自己留退路，习近平也不会给他留退路。”
西方媒体爆料，中共中央针对周永康做了调查，而周永康也做了自我检讨，周永康检讨的内容已经下到省部级。
中国历史学专家、原“首都师范大学”副教授李元华表示，在周永康做了检讨后，胡温为了十八大平稳过渡，和共产党政权的稳定，可能暂时放过周永康，不过周永康阴谋已久，出于对自身性命和权力的维护，是不可能臣服于胡温的，一旦有了喘息的机会，就会卷土重来。
李元华说，如果“血债派”占上风，他们会依照共产党“政治问题经济化”的惯例，以“贪腐”的名义来整垮胡温，为自己“坐政”赢得民心。
中国历史学专家李元华：“周永康代表的是一派人，并不是他一个人，他是血债派的一个代表。留住他实际上等于是保住血债派。我想跟他有共同血债的这批人，实际上是跟他的态度是完全一样的，他要保住命。他们害怕自己的血债累累，遭到恶报，那么他们就是一手在镇压，一手还想在中共的权斗当中去攫取更大的利益，占到上风。他既然是没有任何迹像之前，就已经在策划政变了，我想他继续会做下去的，只不过他现在暂时的有一个服软。”
章天亮分析，如果胡温仅仅针对政治局委员薄熙来，而不是政治局常委周永康，是不需要军队公开表示效忠的。
章天亮：“现在这个消息我觉得它是假的可能性比较大。在薄熙来这个事情出来以后，很多军队的人出来表态，来支持胡锦涛。其实像这种军队表态一般都不是政治局委员这一级别的，当时拿下陈良宇、当时拿下陈希同，从来没有说军队的人表态的。一般军队表态的都涉及到政治局常委这一级。如果你看六四的时候拿下赵紫阳，或者是92年邓小平对江泽民搞的反改革开放那一套很不满意，所以军队表态支持邓小平改革开放。一般军队表态都是用在常委这一级。”
李元华说，胡温也许认为周永康十八大就下台了，过了十八大处理不迟，但是那时刚上台的习近平还控制不了全局，“血债派”为了免于清算，恐怕会给中国带来更大的危害。
采访/刘惠 编辑/李莲 后制/葛雷
Will Zhou Yongkang Last Through the 18th CCP National Congress?
After the fall of Bo Xilai, the Chongqing prosecution system
had a major restructurization.
Prosecutors in a total of 38 districts and counties were replaced.
Some top ranking military officials also stated
their allegiance to President Hu Jintao.
It is widely believed that Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang
are in a hopeless predicament.
Recently, tightened internet control and free speech,
plus rumors of the appearance of Jiang Zemin, the boss of the bloody debts group,
leads people to believe Zhou Yongkang may be safe at least
until after the 18th National Congress."
Some scholars speculate that this could be a hoax and believe
there will be serious consequences if Zhou Yongkang goes free.
Let’s hear what they have to say.
Earlier, many media reports revealed that Zhou Yongkang
had attempted a coup in an effort to topple Xi Jinping.
The ban of news reporting on scandals involving Zhou
Yongkang and his family has been lifted on the internet in China.
However, recently domestic internet blockage and
a crackdown on free speech has gotten more serious;
many outspoken individuals such as Ye Huo, Gao Yu,
and others have been confronted by and had to “have a little chat” with authorities.
On the 21st, some overseas media reported that “prior to
the 18th National Congress, Zhou Yongkang will not be touched.”
Professor Zhang Tianliang of George Mason University indicates
that from a Chinese historical point of view, no one can survive
by offending the next successor; there have been no exceptions.
If Hu and Wen cannot deal with Zhou Yongkang decisively,
they will fail miserably, and their relatives and friends will be implicated.
Zhang Tianliang: “If (Hu and Wen) don’t address it and let it go,
their appeasement will bring disaster.
Should Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang come to power, they
will throw out Hu and Wen, who will die sadly.
I don’t think Hu and Wen will let go of Zhou Yongkang.
If someone engaged in such a thing as a coup is able to retire
peacefully, that’s pretty much saying everyone is free to engage in a coup.
Zhou Yongkang did not give himself leeway;
I don’t think Xi Jinping will leave him leeway either."
Western media broke the news that the CCP Central
Committee conducted an investigation into Zhou Yongkang;
Zhou Yongkang had to write a self-criticism report.
The contents of this report have been distributed widely
amongst the provincial and ministerial level.
Chinese historian and former Capital Normal University
associate professor, Li Yuanhua, says that
after Zhou Yongkang’s self-criticism,
Hu and Wen might temporarily let go of him in order to
maintain stability of the regime and a smooth transition
during the 18th National Congress.
However, Zhou Yongkang’s conspiracy, in an effort to fulfill
his life aspirations for power, has long been in the works.
It will be impossible for him to fully submit to Hu and Wen.
Once he has a chance to recuperate, he will stage a comeback.
Li Yuanhua says that if the bloody debts group is to prevail,
they will follow the CCP’s practice of
using politics to mask financial corruption in an effort
to topple Hu and Wen and seize top political status.
Chinese historian Li Yuanhua: “Zhou Yongkang represents
a pack of people. He’s not alone;
he is a representative of the bloody debts group.
Keeping him is equivalent to keeping the bloody debts group.
I believe the gang members in the bloody debts group share
the same attitude, which is to struggle to stay alive.
They are afraid of punishment for their bloody crimes.
That’s why on one hand they are involved in suppression,
while on the other they aggressively struggle for power.
Without any indications, he plotted the coup.
I believe he will continue. He is only temporarily keeping a low profile."
Zhang Tianliang analyses that there is no need for the army
to openly express their loyalty
if Hu and Wen are only targeting the Politburo member Bo Xilai
and not the Politburo Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang.
Zhang Tianliang: “I believe it is more than likely
false information.
After Bo Xilai’s case, many military personnel expressed
their support of Hu Jintao.
In fact, the army does not have to show their allegiance
while dealing with this level of Politburo member.
When Chen Liangyu was taken down or when Chen Xitong
was sacked, no military personnel spoke out.
Generally, military will only express their stance when
the Politburo Standing Committee is involved, such as
when Zhao Ziyang was taken down
for the June 4th student movement, or
when Deng Xiaoping was not happy about Jiang Zemin’s
opposition to ‘reform and opening up’ in 1992;
the army declared their support of Deng Xiaoping.
The military will only state their position
when dealing with the Standing Committee."
Li Yuanhua indicated that perhaps Hu and Wen are under
the assumption that Zhou Yongkang will step down after the 18th National Congress,
and thus it won’t be too late to deal with him afterwards.
However, the newly inaugerated Xi Jinping will be unable
to control the situation right away.
The bloody debts group will bring more damage to China
than ever before in order to avoid retribution.
