【新唐人2012年4月23日訊】薄熙來倒臺後，重慶檢察系統大洗牌，38區縣檢察長全換人，而軍隊高層也有傳出表態效忠胡錦濤的。外界普遍認為，薄周大勢已去。但是最近中國網絡和言論自由的控制又轉向嚴重，「血債派」的老大江澤民也傳聞露面，有人認為「周永康現在沒事了，等十八大以後再看結局。」學者分析，這可能是個假消息。並且認為，如果不清算周永康，結果就是養虎為患。一起來看看他們怎麼說。
前一陣媒體大量披露，周永康企圖發動政變，扳倒習近平。周永康及家族的醜聞在中國網絡上也開始解禁。但最近中國國內封網和打擊言論自由又變得嚴峻起來，很多敢言人士像野火、高瑜等，都被當局找去談話「喝茶」。
21號，有海外媒體放出消息，「十八大前周永康不會有所變動」。
美國「喬治梅森大學」教授章天亮認為，從歷史上來看，得罪下一代接班人的人都沒有好下場，從商鞅到和珅無不例外，不過如果胡溫不能果斷處理周永康，他們會死的很慘，親友也會受到牽連。
章天亮：「這種事情如果不處理的話，最後的結果就是養虎為患，如果將來真的讓薄熙來、周永康上臺的話，他們會把胡溫整個拋出來的，那胡溫會死得很慘的。我認為胡溫不會放過周永康，因為像搞政變這樣的事情，如果你要是說讓他平安退休，那等於是說大家都可以搞政變。我想周永康沒有給自己留退路，習近平也不會給他留退路。」
西方媒體爆料，中共中央針對周永康做了調查，而周永康也做了自我檢討，周永康檢討的內容已經下到省部級。
中國歷史學專家、原「首都師範大學」副教授李元華表示，在周永康做了檢討後，胡溫為了十八大平穩過渡，和共產黨政權的穩定，可能暫時放過周永康，不過周永康陰謀已久，出於對自身性命和權力的維護，是不可能臣服於胡溫的，一旦有了喘息的機會，就會捲土重來。
李元華說，如果「血債派」佔上風，他們會依照共產黨「政治問題經濟化」的慣例，以「貪腐」的名義來整垮胡溫，為自己「坐政」贏得民心。
中國歷史學專家李元華：「周永康代表的是一派人，並不是他一個人，他是血債派的一個代表。留住他實際上等於是保住血債派。我想跟他有共同血債的這批人，實際上是跟他的態度是完全一樣的，他要保住命。他們害怕自己的血債累累，遭到惡報，那麼他們就是一手在鎮壓，一手還想在中共的權鬥當中去攫取更大的利益，佔到上風。他既然是沒有任何跡像之前，就已經在策劃政變了，我想他繼續會做下去的，只不過他現在暫時的有一個服軟。」
章天亮分析，如果胡溫僅僅針對政治局委員薄熙來，而不是政治局常委周永康，是不需要軍隊公開表示效忠的。
章天亮：「現在這個消息我覺得它是假的可能性比較大。在薄熙來這個事情出來以後，很多軍隊的人出來表態，來支持胡錦濤。其實像這種軍隊表態一般都不是政治局委員這一級別的，當時拿下陳良宇、當時拿下陳希同，從來沒有說軍隊的人表態的。一般軍隊表態的都涉及到政治局常委這一級。如果你看六四的時候拿下趙紫陽，或者是92年鄧小平對江澤民搞的反改革開放那一套很不滿意，所以軍隊表態支持鄧小平改革開放。一般軍隊表態都是用在常委這一級。」
李元華說，胡溫也許認為周永康十八大就下臺了，過了十八大處理不遲，但是那時剛上臺的習近平還控制不了全局，「血債派」為了免於清算，恐怕會給中國帶來更大的危害。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/李蓮 後製/葛雷
Will Zhou Yongkang Last Through the 18th CCP National Congress?
After the fall of Bo Xilai, the Chongqing prosecution system
had a major restructurization.
Prosecutors in a total of 38 districts and counties were replaced.
Some top ranking military officials also stated
their allegiance to President Hu Jintao.
It is widely believed that Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang
are in a hopeless predicament.
Recently, tightened internet control and free speech,
plus rumors of the appearance of Jiang Zemin, the boss of the bloody debts group,
leads people to believe Zhou Yongkang may be safe at least
until after the 18th National Congress."
Some scholars speculate that this could be a hoax and believe
there will be serious consequences if Zhou Yongkang goes free.
Let’s hear what they have to say.
Earlier, many media reports revealed that Zhou Yongkang
had attempted a coup in an effort to topple Xi Jinping.
The ban of news reporting on scandals involving Zhou
Yongkang and his family has been lifted on the internet in China.
However, recently domestic internet blockage and
a crackdown on free speech has gotten more serious;
many outspoken individuals such as Ye Huo, Gao Yu,
and others have been confronted by and had to “have a little chat” with authorities.
On the 21st, some overseas media reported that “prior to
the 18th National Congress, Zhou Yongkang will not be touched.”
Professor Zhang Tianliang of George Mason University indicates
that from a Chinese historical point of view, no one can survive
by offending the next successor; there have been no exceptions.
If Hu and Wen cannot deal with Zhou Yongkang decisively,
they will fail miserably, and their relatives and friends will be implicated.
Zhang Tianliang: “If (Hu and Wen) don’t address it and let it go,
their appeasement will bring disaster.
Should Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang come to power, they
will throw out Hu and Wen, who will die sadly.
I don’t think Hu and Wen will let go of Zhou Yongkang.
If someone engaged in such a thing as a coup is able to retire
peacefully, that’s pretty much saying everyone is free to engage in a coup.
Zhou Yongkang did not give himself leeway;
I don’t think Xi Jinping will leave him leeway either."
Western media broke the news that the CCP Central
Committee conducted an investigation into Zhou Yongkang;
Zhou Yongkang had to write a self-criticism report.
The contents of this report have been distributed widely
amongst the provincial and ministerial level.
Chinese historian and former Capital Normal University
associate professor, Li Yuanhua, says that
after Zhou Yongkang’s self-criticism,
Hu and Wen might temporarily let go of him in order to
maintain stability of the regime and a smooth transition
during the 18th National Congress.
However, Zhou Yongkang’s conspiracy, in an effort to fulfill
his life aspirations for power, has long been in the works.
It will be impossible for him to fully submit to Hu and Wen.
Once he has a chance to recuperate, he will stage a comeback.
Li Yuanhua says that if the bloody debts group is to prevail,
they will follow the CCP’s practice of
using politics to mask financial corruption in an effort
to topple Hu and Wen and seize top political status.
Chinese historian Li Yuanhua: “Zhou Yongkang represents
a pack of people. He’s not alone;
he is a representative of the bloody debts group.
Keeping him is equivalent to keeping the bloody debts group.
I believe the gang members in the bloody debts group share
the same attitude, which is to struggle to stay alive.
They are afraid of punishment for their bloody crimes.
That’s why on one hand they are involved in suppression,
while on the other they aggressively struggle for power.
Without any indications, he plotted the coup.
I believe he will continue. He is only temporarily keeping a low profile."
Zhang Tianliang analyses that there is no need for the army
to openly express their loyalty
if Hu and Wen are only targeting the Politburo member Bo Xilai
and not the Politburo Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang.
Zhang Tianliang: “I believe it is more than likely
false information.
After Bo Xilai’s case, many military personnel expressed
their support of Hu Jintao.
In fact, the army does not have to show their allegiance
while dealing with this level of Politburo member.
When Chen Liangyu was taken down or when Chen Xitong
was sacked, no military personnel spoke out.
Generally, military will only express their stance when
the Politburo Standing Committee is involved, such as
when Zhao Ziyang was taken down
for the June 4th student movement, or
when Deng Xiaoping was not happy about Jiang Zemin’s
opposition to ‘reform and opening up’ in 1992;
the army declared their support of Deng Xiaoping.
The military will only state their position
when dealing with the Standing Committee."
Li Yuanhua indicated that perhaps Hu and Wen are under
the assumption that Zhou Yongkang will step down after the 18th National Congress,
and thus it won’t be too late to deal with him afterwards.
However, the newly inaugerated Xi Jinping will be unable
to control the situation right away.
The bloody debts group will bring more damage to China
than ever before in order to avoid retribution.
