【新唐人2012年4月15日讯】新闻周刊（315）有媒体传出，中共内部正考虑提议“推迟十八大”，以便“缩短权力过渡时期”。由于处理薄熙来事件中，高层出现了大的分歧，同时在“左派”和“自由派”的意识形态上，也出现摇摆，因此中共当局准备推迟18大的召开。外界认为，中共当局在“左右两派”寻找生存路线的斗争中，出现了你死我活的厮杀，可能为让权力平稳过渡，而推迟18大。但是，问题似乎不会因为延迟18大就得到解决，下面请看专家的分析。
英国《路透社》11号在一篇题为“中共筹措下一步行动”（China braces for next act in leadership drama）的报导中，引述接近中共高层的消息人士的话说，中共内部在如何阻止党内纷争，特别是薄熙来事件的处理手法上，出现了很大的分歧；意识形态上，在“左派”和“自由派”之间摇摆和重叠，准备推迟18大。
《希望之声电台》评论员蓝述表示，现在中共高层的内斗情况和1945年到1956年期间很相似，当时因为高岗、饶漱石的“枪指挥党”，“七大”和“八大”之间隔了11年才召开。蓝述认为，目前的政治情势，加上江泽民的健康情况，导致“血债派”的分崩离析，都可能促使胡温考虑推迟“十八大”，来解决“血债派”的经济垄断，以及政治和军事实力。
蓝述：“在目前这种四分五裂的状态之下，它很难做平稳的交接过渡，它很可能推迟18大的会期，允许它现在在任的政治局，做各个派系之间的权力交换，把这些事情都安排好了以后，各个派系再回去，再开会，内讧的程度可能会降得更低，这个权力平稳过渡可能会更容易一点。”
最近大陆媒体都在异口同声的拥护中共中央对薄熙来的处理决定。
蓝述表示，薄熙来的个人操守和涉及的命案，不足以让中共的媒体大张旗鼓的来拥护中共的决定，而是中共面临生存危机，导致党内各派在寻找解决中共危机的路线上，出现了斗争。
蓝述还说，“六四”导致的分配不公，和迫害法轮功导致的司法崩溃与道德沦丧，都给中国带来了深层的社会危机， 如果温家宝真像传说的一样，要从这两个问题着手解决中国面临的危机，现在正是拿下直接导致这两起“血债”的江派的好时机。
蓝述：“目前中共面临的危机，是社会制度上的危机，是共产主义穷途末路了，都不信共产主义了，今天中共倒台，老百姓并不觉得失去了什么，可能绝大部分的中国老百姓觉得是个好事，那胡温和共产党的这些领袖，和毛泽东、邓小平这些人比起来，在胡温面前是多了一个选择，他可以做中国的戈尔巴乔夫和叶利钦。”
不过，也有媒体认为，薄熙来被双停，谷开来被调查，中共媒体大肆宣传得到各界支持，显示出2012年中共权力更迭更像毛邓时期的无序状态。
香港《动向》杂志主编张伟国认为，中共的历次换届都存在着血腥的内斗，这次只不过是王立军和薄熙来把共产党的家丑外扬了。现在一直在按程序运行，18大不会推迟，除非不可抗力。
张伟国：“只要他不搞政治体制改革，不转变成一个现代的执政党，也就是说，他不是依照法律办事，接受人民的监督，接受舆论的监督，那他不可能有序啊，所以这个无序他是一个常态，你用有序的标准去要求一个无序的政党，本身就是很滑稽的事情。”
“毛邓时期”被抛弃的选定继承人有5位，分别是刘少奇、林彪、华国锋和胡耀邦以及赵紫阳。他们有的被排挤到边缘，有的死于狱中，有的被软禁或处于外界看来奇怪的境遇。
蓝述认为，毛泽东和邓小平在中共的领导中处于绝对权威，而现在的胡温，面临“太子党”和“血债派”对经济、政治和军事的控制，因此需要一段时间来解决这些难题。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/周天
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CCP May Postpone the 18th Congress
Media are reporting of Chinese Communist Party’ (CCP)
new move regarding its National People’s Congress (NPC).
CCP is considering a proposal to postpone its 18th NPC,
due in October, as to help with the power transition period.
Dealing with Bo Xilai’s case now, top CCP levels have
significant differences and fierce power infightings.
The leftist and liberal ideologies also have swings,
so CCP’ authorities may consider delaying the 18th NPC.
However, the problem does not seem such that can be
solved just by rescheduling the 18th NPC, experts say.
On April 11, Reuters published an article entitled,
“China braces for the next act in leadership drama.”
It cites sources close to the CCP’s leadership, saying the CCP
has internal differences on how to prevent inner disputes,
in particular, how to deal with Bo Xilai.
Ideological swings and overlaps exist between the leftist
and liberals, so CCP is ready to postpone the 18th NPC.
Sound of Hope radio commentator Lan Shu said, CCP’s
internal struggle is very similar to that from 1945 to 1956.
Then Gao Gang and Yao Shushi’s “Gun commands the CCP”
caused an 11- year gap between the 7th and 8th NPC.
Lan Shu described the current political situation in relation
to the health condition of CCP’s ex-leader Jiang Zemin.
The disintegration of the blood debt faction could lead
Hu and Wen to consider rescheduling the 18th NPC.
Lan Shu: “In the current fragmented state, it is difficult to
have a smooth power transition, which may delay 18th NPC.
This can allow the current Politburo to carry out
the exchange of power between the various factions.
After all of these things are arranged,
the factions can go ahead and meet again.
This may lower the possibility of infighting,
and make the smooth power transition a bit easier."
China’s mainland media said the CCP’ Central Committee
decided to deal with Bo first.
Lan Shu thinks Bo Xilai’s record and murder involvement
do not allow CCP’ media to give a high profile of its decision.
The CCP faces survival crisis, leading to a struggle between
the inner-party factions, and impeding its solution.
Lan added, the bad handling of June 4th and Falun Gong’s
persecution led to a judicial collapse and moral decay, bringing the Chinese a deep social crisis.
If Wen Jiabao tries to solve both problems to tackle the crisis,
it is a good time to bring down Jiang’s group, responsible for both blood debts.
Lan Shu: “The CCP’s crisis now is a crisis of the social system.
The communism reached a dead end, nobody believes in it.
If the CCP fell down today, no one will feel he lost anything.
Vast majority of Chinese people may think it is a good thing.
Hu and Wen and other CCP leaders have one more choice
than what Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping had.
They can be China’s Gorbachev and Yeltsin."
Some CCP media ballooned Bo’s dismissal and Gu’s
murder investigation and got support from all walks of life.
This shows that the disordered state of power transition
in 2012 is more like those during Mao and Deng’s period.
Zhang Weiguo, chief editor of Hong Kong’s Trend magazine,
thinks there is always gory infighting in CCP’ power change.
It is just that this time Wang Lijun is the whistle-blower,
and Bo Xilai is under the spotlight.
Now it’s on the procedure, the 18th NPC wouldn’t
be postponed, unless the force majeure.
Zhang Weiguo: “As long as it does not do a political reform,
it cannot transform into a modern ruling party.
That is, it cannot act in accordance to the law,
or accept supervision by the people and the public opinion.
Thus it could not have any order,
and this disorder is normal for the CCP.
If you try order a disorderly party with standard requirements,
this can be a very funny thing."
In Mao-Deng’s period, five selected heirs were abandoned,
including Liu Shaoqi, Lin Biao, Hua Guofeng, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang.
Some of them were forced out, others died in prison,
some are under house arrest or in a strange to the outside world situation.
Lan believes, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping
had an absolute authority over the CCP.
While Hu and Wen are now facing economic, political
and military control by Princelings and blood debt factions.
Thus they may need some time to address the challenges.
