【新唐人2012年4月15日訊】新聞週刊（315）有媒體傳出，中共內部正考慮提議「推遲十八大」，以便「縮短權力過渡時期」。由於處理薄熙來事件中，高層出現了大的分歧，同時在「左派」和「自由派」的意識形態上，也出現搖擺，因此中共當局準備推遲18大的召開。外界認為，中共當局在「左右兩派」尋找生存路線的鬥爭中，出現了你死我活的廝殺，可能為讓權力平穩過渡，而推遲18大。但是，問題似乎不會因為延遲18大就得到解決，下面請看專家的分析。
英國《路透社》11號在一篇題為「中共籌措下一步行動」（China braces for next act in leadership drama）的報導中，引述接近中共高層的消息人士的話說，中共內部在如何阻止黨內紛爭，特別是薄熙來事件的處理手法上，出現了很大的分歧；意識形態上，在「左派」和「自由派」之間搖擺和重疊，準備推遲18大。
《希望之聲電臺》評論員藍述表示，現在中共高層的內鬥情況和1945年到1956年期間很相似，當時因為高崗、饒漱石的「槍指揮黨」，「七大」和「八大」之間隔了11年才召開。藍述認為，目前的政治情勢，加上江澤民的健康情況，導致「血債派」的分崩離析，都可能促使胡溫考慮推遲「十八大」，來解決「血債派」的經濟壟斷，以及政治和軍事實力。
藍述：「在目前這種四分五裂的狀態之下，它很難做平穩的交接過渡，它很可能推遲18大的會期，允許它現在在任的政治局，做各個派系之間的權力交換，把這些事情都安排好了以後，各個派系再回去，再開會，內訌的程度可能會降得更低，這個權力平穩過渡可能會更容易一點。」
最近大陸媒體都在異口同聲的擁護中共中央對薄熙來的處理決定。
藍述表示，薄熙來的個人操守和涉及的命案，不足以讓中共的媒體大張旗鼓的來擁護中共的決定，而是中共面臨生存危機，導致黨內各派在尋找解決中共危機的路線上，出現了鬥爭。
藍述還說，「六四」導致的分配不公，和迫害法輪功導致的司法崩潰與道德淪喪，都給中國帶來了深層的社會危機， 如果溫家寶真像傳說的一樣，要從這兩個問題著手解決中國面臨的危機，現在正是拿下直接導致這兩起「血債」的江派的好時機。
藍述：「目前中共面臨的危機，是社會制度上的危機，是共產主義窮途末路了，都不信共產主義了，今天中共倒臺，老百姓並不覺得失去了甚麼，可能絕大部分的中國老百姓覺得是個好事，那胡溫和共產黨的這些領袖，和毛澤東、鄧小平這些人比起來，在胡溫面前是多了一個選擇，他可以做中國的戈爾巴喬夫和葉利欽。」
不過，也有媒體認為，薄熙來被雙停，谷開來被調查，中共媒體大肆宣傳得到各界支持，顯示出2012年中共權力更迭更像毛鄧時期的無序狀態。
香港《動向》雜誌主編張偉國認為，中共的歷次換屆都存在著血腥的內鬥，這次只不過是王立軍和薄熙來把共產黨的家醜外揚了。現在一直在按程序運行，18大不會推遲，除非不可抗力。
張偉國：「只要他不搞政治體制改革，不轉變成一個現代的執政黨，也就是說，他不是依照法律辦事，接受人民的監督，接受輿論的監督，那他不可能有序啊，所以這個無序他是一個常態，你用有序的標準去要求一個無序的政黨，本身就是很滑稽的事情。」
「毛鄧時期」被拋棄的選定繼承人有5位，分別是劉少奇、林彪、華國鋒和胡耀邦以及趙紫陽。他們有的被排擠到邊緣，有的死於獄中，有的被軟禁或處於外界看來奇怪的境遇。
藍述認為，毛澤東和鄧小平在中共的領導中處於絕對權威，而現在的胡溫，面臨「太子黨」和「血債派」對經濟、政治和軍事的控制，因此需要一段時間來解決這些難題。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/周天
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CCP May Postpone the 18th Congress
Media are reporting of Chinese Communist Party』 (CCP)
new move regarding its National People’s Congress (NPC).
CCP is considering a proposal to postpone its 18th NPC,
due in October, as to help with the power transition period.
Dealing with Bo Xilai』s case now, top CCP levels have
significant differences and fierce power infightings.
The leftist and liberal ideologies also have swings,
so CCP』 authorities may consider delaying the 18th NPC.
However, the problem does not seem such that can be
solved just by rescheduling the 18th NPC, experts say.
On April 11, Reuters published an article entitled,
“China braces for the next act in leadership drama.”
It cites sources close to the CCP』s leadership, saying the CCP
has internal differences on how to prevent inner disputes,
in particular, how to deal with Bo Xilai.
Ideological swings and overlaps exist between the leftist
and liberals, so CCP is ready to postpone the 18th NPC.
Sound of Hope radio commentator Lan Shu said, CCP』s
internal struggle is very similar to that from 1945 to 1956.
Then Gao Gang and Yao Shushi』s “Gun commands the CCP”
caused an 11- year gap between the 7th and 8th NPC.
Lan Shu described the current political situation in relation
to the health condition of CCP』s ex-leader Jiang Zemin.
The disintegration of the blood debt faction could lead
Hu and Wen to consider rescheduling the 18th NPC.
Lan Shu: “In the current fragmented state, it is difficult to
have a smooth power transition, which may delay 18th NPC.
This can allow the current Politburo to carry out
the exchange of power between the various factions.
After all of these things are arranged,
the factions can go ahead and meet again.
This may lower the possibility of infighting,
and make the smooth power transition a bit easier."
China』s mainland media said the CCP』 Central Committee
decided to deal with Bo first.
Lan Shu thinks Bo Xilai』s record and murder involvement
do not allow CCP’ media to give a high profile of its decision.
The CCP faces survival crisis, leading to a struggle between
the inner-party factions, and impeding its solution.
Lan added, the bad handling of June 4th and Falun Gong』s
persecution led to a judicial collapse and moral decay, bringing the Chinese a deep social crisis.
If Wen Jiabao tries to solve both problems to tackle the crisis,
it is a good time to bring down Jiang』s group, responsible for both blood debts.
Lan Shu: “The CCP』s crisis now is a crisis of the social system.
The communism reached a dead end, nobody believes in it.
If the CCP fell down today, no one will feel he lost anything.
Vast majority of Chinese people may think it is a good thing.
Hu and Wen and other CCP leaders have one more choice
than what Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping had.
They can be China’s Gorbachev and Yeltsin."
Some CCP media ballooned Bo』s dismissal and Gu』s
murder investigation and got support from all walks of life.
This shows that the disordered state of power transition
in 2012 is more like those during Mao and Deng』s period.
Zhang Weiguo, chief editor of Hong Kong』s Trend magazine,
thinks there is always gory infighting in CCP』 power change.
It is just that this time Wang Lijun is the whistle-blower,
and Bo Xilai is under the spotlight.
Now it』s on the procedure, the 18th NPC wouldn』t
be postponed, unless the force majeure.
Zhang Weiguo: “As long as it does not do a political reform,
it cannot transform into a modern ruling party.
That is, it cannot act in accordance to the law,
or accept supervision by the people and the public opinion.
Thus it could not have any order,
and this disorder is normal for the CCP.
If you try order a disorderly party with standard requirements,
this can be a very funny thing."
In Mao-Deng』s period, five selected heirs were abandoned,
including Liu Shaoqi, Lin Biao, Hua Guofeng, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang.
Some of them were forced out, others died in prison,
some are under house arrest or in a strange to the outside world situation.
Lan believes, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping
had an absolute authority over the CCP.
While Hu and Wen are now facing economic, political
and military control by Princelings and blood debt factions.
Thus they may need some time to address the challenges.
