【新唐人2012年3月9日讯】英国智库“国际战略研究所”（IISS）7号发布一项年度军事力量评估报告。报告说：由于金融危机，欧洲各国实施了财政紧缩政策，在这种背景下，亚洲军费开支将于2012年头一次超过欧洲，而亚洲各国中要数中国的军费开支最多。这份名为《军事平衡2012》的报告认为，亚洲国家为因应中共的军事威胁也开始增加军费支出，这就带来了发生冲突的危险。
3月7号在伦敦记者招待会上，“国际战略研究所”所长约翰∙奇普曼 (John Chipman) 表示：自从2008年危机以来，欧洲和亚洲军费开支的水准差距缩小，但按照目前的趋势发展，亚洲军费支出有可能在2012年首次超过欧洲。
英国智库的研究报告指出，中国在亚洲地区军费开支中不仅位居首位，并且每5年大约增加一倍。其他亚洲国家也开始增加军费支出，这带来了发生冲突的危险。
“2049项目研究所”高级研究员罗杰 克里夫(Roger Cliff) ：“中国现在正在迅速的使亚太地区的其他国家黯然失色，除了美国。他们开始获得能力来挑战美国在(亚太) 地区的支配力。 因此那个地区正在经历一个大的转变，从一个有若干强国的地区变成一个只有中国和美国占主导的地区。 2:42-3:06”
罗杰认为，中共目前主要是以海军、空军和弹道导弹部队为重点发展军队现代化。他们发展军事，不仅要战胜台湾的军队，而且还要战胜任何以台湾名义介入台湾冲突的其他军事力量，这打破了那个地区原有的军事平衡。
中共人大发言人李肇星在3月4号披露，中共2012年国防预算为6702.74亿元人民币，增幅达到11.2%。但美国政府估计，北京的实际军费开支可能要比官方公布的数字高得多，因为许多花费被囊括在其他财政支出项目内。
世界权威“英国简氏防务”咨询机构最近发表报告预测，中国军费开支将从2011年的1198亿美元猛增至2015年的2382亿美元，年均增长约18．75％，将超过亚洲其他所有国家的总和。
另一方面，由于中共国防政策缺乏透明性，又时常在南沙群岛展示军力，并在巴基斯坦瓜达尔筹建海军基地等动作，让亚太地区感到不安。
日本《产经新闻》3月6号报导指出，面对中共军力崛起及东南亚各国国防费用近年来明显增长的态势，日本政府10年来却不断减少防卫开支，实属“不正常”。面对“来自中国的威胁” ，日本应该提高自身的防卫能力。
罗杰认为，日本是亚洲地区的主要力量，也有显着的利益，如果想跟上中共的军事地位，应该在未来几年花费更多军费才行﹔还有台湾，他们直接面临中国大陆的威胁，也不得不增加军费开支。
罗杰：“我相信日本应该花费更多的军费开支，不仅意识到中国花费多少军费，还要根据自己的实际能力增加。在某些情况下，那些国家需要增加自己的国防开支,以便能够跟上中国。”
但约翰∙奇普曼指出：中国军事技术领先的地位并不像外界说的那么精良，比如中国还不具备让飞机从航空母舰起飞的技术，中国仍没有航空母舰，而美国却有11艘。
“斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所”曾指出， 2010年全球国防开支已经达到了16300亿美元，如果这笔钱能够用来处理饥饿、疾病、污染或者贫穷，世界或许会变得大不一样。
采访/郝毅博 编辑/宋风 后制/肖颜
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Asia’s Military Spending To Exceed Europe’s
British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
published an annual military strength report on March 7.
The report said, due to the financial crisis,
many European countries tightened their fiscal policies.
Now, military spending in Asia will exceed Europe’s
for the first time in 2012.
“2012 Military Balance” reported that mainland China
has the largest military budget in Asia.
Asian countries increased their military spending
due to the threat of the Chinese regime.
Director of IISS, John Chipman, spoke during
the press conference held on March 7 in London.
Chipman expressed that since the crisis in 2008,
military spending of Asia and Europe started to narrow down.
Under the present trend, military spending of Asia
might exceed that of Europe for the first time in 2012.
The report pointed out that China not only has the highest
military budget, but doubles this budget every five years.
Other Asian countries also started to boost military budgets,
increasing the danger of conflict.
Roger Cliff, a Senior Researcher at the 2049 Project
Research Institute, commented on the issue.
Roger Cliff: “China is now in a process of rapidly eclipsing
all the other countries in the region except for the US.
And are starting to acquire the capability to really
challenge US military dominance in the region.
So it’s been a major shift from a situation in which there were
a number of regional powers to one of which there really are just two – China and the United states.”
Cliff believes that the Chinese regime is mainly developing
navy, air force and ballistic missile forces.
They want to win over not only the Taiwanese military,
but also over all other forces that might side with Taiwan.
This would result in changing
the existing balance in the region.
On March 4, China’s spokesperson Li Zhaoxing publisized
Chinese Communist Party’ (CCP) defence budget for 2012.
Li claimed it will be RMB 670.3 billion (~US$ 106 billion).
The actual military spending might be much greater.
Many spendings are outside the officially announced
number, hidden in other fiscal items.
The IHS Jane’s Defence Advisory Body predicts,
that China’s military spending will rapidly increase.
At an annual rate of 18.9%, spending will grow
from US$ 119.8 billion to US$ 238.2 billion in 2015.
This will exceed the combined total spending
of all other Asian countries.
On the other hand, CCP defence polices are not transparent,
often displaying military strength near the Nansha Islands.
CCP is also building navies based in place like Gwadar
in Pakistan, making the entire region very worried.
Japanese media Sankei Shimbun reported
on the topic on March 6.
They claimed that faced with China’s military build up,
defence budgets in Southeast Asia increased recently.
The Japanese government is reducing defence spending
for the past 10 years, which is very “abnormal.”
Faced with the CCP’s threat,
Japan needs to increase its defence capabilities.
Roger Cliff believes, Japan is the main force in Asia. It must
increase military spending if it wants to keep up with CCP.
Taiwan is directly threatened by mainland China,
which forces them to increase their defence budget too.
Roger Cliff: “I do believe they ought to be accounting
for the improvement.
You know not just how much China’s spending,
but translating into in terms of real increases and capabilities.
And in some cases they may require increased defense
spending in order to be able to keep up with the Chinese.”
John Chipman: “The Chinese military technology
is not as advanced as other external sources pointed out.
Like China still don’t have the technology for aircraft carrier
take-off, no aircraft carriers, but the US has 11.”
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute points out,
the world’s combined defence spending is US$ 1.63 trillion.
If this money could be used to treat hunger, diseases,
and poverty, the world might be a very different place.
