【新唐人2012年3月9日訊】英國智庫「國際戰略研究所」（IISS）7號發佈一項年度軍事力量評估報告。報告說：由於金融危機，歐洲各國實施了財政緊縮政策，在這種背景下，亞洲軍費開支將於2012年頭一次超過歐洲，而亞洲各國中要數中國的軍費開支最多。這份名為《軍事平衡2012》的報告認為，亞洲國家為因應中共的軍事威脅也開始增加軍費支出，這就帶來了發生衝突的危險。
3月7號在倫敦記者招待會上，「國際戰略研究所」所長約翰∙奇普曼 (John Chipman) 表示：自從2008年危機以來，歐洲和亞洲軍費開支的水準差距縮小，但按照目前的趨勢發展，亞洲軍費支出有可能在2012年首次超過歐洲。
英國智庫的研究報告指出，中國在亞洲地區軍費開支中不僅位居首位，並且每5年大約增加一倍。其他亞洲國家也開始增加軍費支出，這帶來了發生衝突的危險。
「2049項目研究所」高級研究員羅傑 克里夫(Roger Cliff) ：「中國現在正在迅速的使亞太地區的其他國家黯然失色，除了美國。他們開始獲得能力來挑戰美國在(亞太) 地區的支配力。 因此那個地區正在經歷一個大的轉變，從一個有若干強國的地區變成一個只有中國和美國佔主導的地區。 2:42-3:06」
羅傑認為，中共目前主要是以海軍、空軍和彈道導彈部隊為重點發展軍隊現代化。他們發展軍事，不僅要戰勝台灣的軍隊，而且還要戰勝任何以台灣名義介入台灣衝突的其他軍事力量，這打破了那個地區原有的軍事平衡。
中共人大發言人李肇星在3月4號披露，中共2012年國防預算為6702.74億元人民幣，增幅達到11.2%。但美國政府估計，北京的實際軍費開支可能要比官方公布的數字高得多，因為許多花費被囊括在其他財政支出項目內。
世界權威「英國簡氏防務」諮詢機構最近發表報告預測，中國軍費開支將從2011年的1198億美元猛增至2015年的2382億美元，年均增長約18．75％，將超過亞洲其他所有國家的總和。
另一方面，由於中共國防政策缺乏透明性，又時常在南沙群島展示軍力，並在巴基斯坦瓜達爾籌建海軍基地等動作，讓亞太地區感到不安。
日本《產經新聞》3月6號報導指出，面對中共軍力崛起及東南亞各國國防費用近年來明顯增長的態勢，日本政府10年來卻不斷減少防衛開支，實屬「不正常」。面對「來自中國的威脅」 ，日本應該提高自身的防衛能力。
羅傑認為，日本是亞洲地區的主要力量，也有顯著的利益，如果想跟上中共的軍事地位，應該在未來幾年花費更多軍費才行﹔還有台灣，他們直接面臨中國大陸的威脅，也不得不增加軍費開支。
羅傑：「我相信日本應該花費更多的軍費開支，不僅意識到中國花費多少軍費，還要根據自己的實際能力增加。在某些情況下，那些國家需要增加自己的國防開支,以便能夠跟上中國。」
但約翰∙奇普曼指出：中國軍事技術領先的地位並不像外界說的那麼精良，比如中國還不具備讓飛機從航空母艦起飛的技術，中國仍沒有航空母艦，而美國卻有11艘。
「斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所」曾指出， 2010年全球國防開支已經達到了16300億美元，如果這筆錢能夠用來處理飢餓、疾病、污染或者貧窮，世界或許會變得大不一樣。
採訪/郝毅博 編輯/宋風 後製/肖顏
——————————-
Asia’s Military Spending To Exceed Europe’s
British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
published an annual military strength report on March 7.
The report said, due to the financial crisis,
many European countries tightened their fiscal policies.
Now, military spending in Asia will exceed Europe’s
for the first time in 2012.
“2012 Military Balance” reported that mainland China
has the largest military budget in Asia.
Asian countries increased their military spending
due to the threat of the Chinese regime.
Director of IISS, John Chipman, spoke during
the press conference held on March 7 in London.
Chipman expressed that since the crisis in 2008,
military spending of Asia and Europe started to narrow down.
Under the present trend, military spending of Asia
might exceed that of Europe for the first time in 2012.
The report pointed out that China not only has the highest
military budget, but doubles this budget every five years.
Other Asian countries also started to boost military budgets,
increasing the danger of conflict.
Roger Cliff, a Senior Researcher at the 2049 Project
Research Institute, commented on the issue.
Roger Cliff: “China is now in a process of rapidly eclipsing
all the other countries in the region except for the US.
And are starting to acquire the capability to really
challenge US military dominance in the region.
So it’s been a major shift from a situation in which there were
a number of regional powers to one of which there really are just two – China and the United states.”
Cliff believes that the Chinese regime is mainly developing
navy, air force and ballistic missile forces.
They want to win over not only the Taiwanese military,
but also over all other forces that might side with Taiwan.
This would result in changing
the existing balance in the region.
On March 4, China’s spokesperson Li Zhaoxing publisized
Chinese Communist Party’ (CCP) defence budget for 2012.
Li claimed it will be RMB 670.3 billion (~US$ 106 billion).
The actual military spending might be much greater.
Many spendings are outside the officially announced
number, hidden in other fiscal items.
The IHS Jane’s Defence Advisory Body predicts,
that China’s military spending will rapidly increase.
At an annual rate of 18.9%, spending will grow
from US$ 119.8 billion to US$ 238.2 billion in 2015.
This will exceed the combined total spending
of all other Asian countries.
On the other hand, CCP defence polices are not transparent,
often displaying military strength near the Nansha Islands.
CCP is also building navies based in place like Gwadar
in Pakistan, making the entire region very worried.
Japanese media Sankei Shimbun reported
on the topic on March 6.
They claimed that faced with China’s military build up,
defence budgets in Southeast Asia increased recently.
The Japanese government is reducing defence spending
for the past 10 years, which is very “abnormal.”
Faced with the CCP’s threat,
Japan needs to increase its defence capabilities.
Roger Cliff believes, Japan is the main force in Asia. It must
increase military spending if it wants to keep up with CCP.
Taiwan is directly threatened by mainland China,
which forces them to increase their defence budget too.
Roger Cliff: “I do believe they ought to be accounting
for the improvement.
You know not just how much China’s spending,
but translating into in terms of real increases and capabilities.
And in some cases they may require increased defense
spending in order to be able to keep up with the Chinese.”
John Chipman: “The Chinese military technology
is not as advanced as other external sources pointed out.
Like China still don’t have the technology for aircraft carrier
take-off, no aircraft carriers, but the US has 11.”
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute points out,
the world’s combined defence spending is US$ 1.63 trillion.
If this money could be used to treat hunger, diseases,
and poverty, the world might be a very different place.
