【新唐人2011年12月24日讯】朝鲜独裁者金正日病逝后，外界关注他的儿子金正恩能否平稳接班，也有人不看好。不过，朝鲜官方已经确立了金正恩的最高领导人地位，金正恩也已经行使了军队指挥权。与此同时，韩国领导人表达了与朝鲜改善关系的意思，美国和中国则以朝鲜半岛为棋盘，暗中较劲。
朝鲜劳动党中央机关报12月22号发表社论，称呼金正恩是“事业的继承者、人民的领导者”。朝鲜官方通讯社则表达了朝鲜军民将“忠于金正恩的领导”。《韩联社》解读，这事实上宣布了“金正恩时代”的开启。
韩国《朝鲜日报》23号报导，在公布金正日去世消息之前，金正恩以党中央军委的名义，向全军下达了“金正恩大将1号令”，指示全军立刻停止训练，返回所属部队。
韩国《中央日报》披露，金正恩今年9月对朝鲜军队进行了改编，并已经在行使作战领域的实质指挥权。金正恩撤下了全部一线指挥官，替换成对自己忠诚的30岁到40岁的军官。
韩国统一研究院首席研究员郑永泰表示，不要认为世袭体制会和原有体制存在太大区别，金正日生前已经为金正恩体制上台打好了基础。“上海复旦大学”韩国朝鲜研究中心副主任蔡建教授也这么认为。
蔡建：“我觉得他顺利接班的可能性还是比较大的，虽然他接班时间短，但是金正日在这之前也做了充分的安排，把一些重要的人物、非常忠心于他的人物安排在一些最重要的岗位上面，其中他的妹夫张成泽和吴克列这两位对他非常忠诚的元老级的人物，安排在国防委员会副委员长的位置上面。”
德国《每日镜报》指出，对金正恩和朝鲜的稳定来说，更为关键的是中国的支持。金正日去世后，胡锦涛等9名中共政治局常委，都前往朝鲜驻北京大使馆吊唁，并明确表示支持金正恩，中国近期可能向朝鲜提供粮食援助。
美国白宫发言人卡尼21号在记者会上表示，“金正日生前指定金正恩为正式接班人，目前没有找到任何变化迹象。”这是白宫首次将金正恩称为接班人。
美国国务卿希拉里发表声明为朝鲜民众祈祷，表示美方已准备好援助朝鲜民众，希望新领导人将朝鲜引入和平的道路。美国国务院官员则与朝鲜驻联合国外交官进行“电话外交”。
韩国《中央日报》指出，美国和中国争先恐后对“后金正日时代”的朝鲜实行介入政策，因为美中都不希望朝鲜内部的不稳定引发朝鲜半岛紧张升级，同时也有扩大在东北亚影响力和牵制对方的意图。
韩国总统李明博22号强调，六方会谈成员国一致希望朝鲜体制能够尽快稳定，未来南北关系完全可以做到“灵活”，“韩国所采取的措施为的是向朝鲜表明并没有敌对朝鲜”。
《朝鲜日报》说，韩国政界在金正日去世后达成共识，将以此为契机改善南北关系。韩国政府高层官员说：“如果金正恩体制表现出与我方和解的诚意，我们完全可以提供帮助。”
《韩联社》援引韩国经济研究员的分析，随着消极对待改革开放的金正日时代落幕，朝鲜改革开放的可能性也随之增大。中国正在促进以开放为主的中朝经济合作，韩国也曾以弃核为条件承诺提供400亿美元的援助。
新唐人记者常春、李元翰、周平采访报导。
South Korea, USA and China show goodwill as Kim Jong-un Exercises Military Power
After the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, close
attention is being paid to his son and successor Kim Jong-Un.
Some are not optimistic about a smooth transfer of power,
as the government appoint supreme leader for Kim Jong-Un.
Kim Jong-Un has also exercised his power to take military
command.
South Korean leaders have spoken of improving their
relationship with North Korea.
Meanwhile, America and China take the Korean Peninsula
as a game of competition.
The leading North Korean newspaper published an editorial
on December 22.
It named Kim Jong-Un as the “successor of the cause,
and the people’s leader."
North Korea’s official news agency also said North Korean
soldiers and civilians will be “loyal to Kim Jong-Un."
“Yonhap" news agency interpreted that this announced the
beginning of the “era of Kim Jong-un."
South Korean newspaper, “Chosun Ilbo," published an article
on Dec. 23rd.
Before announcing Kim Jong Il’s death, Kim Jong-Un issued
an order in the name of party Central Military Commission.
This “General Kim Jong-Un No. 1 Decree" ordered the army
to stop training and immediately return to their forces.
South Korea, “Central Daily" disclosed that in September
this year Kim Jong-un adapted the North Korean army.
He exercised a substantial commanding power over the
operational area, removing all the front-line commanders.
Kim Jong-Un also replaced 30 to 40 year old officers,
for those who are loyal to him.
Zheng Yongtai, Chief researcher at South Korean Institute for
National Unification, commented on this hereditary system.
Zheng believes the system will not differ from the original, as
Kim Jong-Il built a foundation for Kim Jong-Un, a statement
seconded by Prof. Cai Jian, Deputy Director of South and
North Korean Study Center, “Shanghai Fudan University".
Cai Jian: “I think a smooth succession is a high possible,
despite taking power over a short period of time.
Kim Jong-Il fully prepared, by placing persons loyal to him in
the most important positions.
Among them is his younger sister’s husband Zhang Chengze,
as well as Wu Kelie, two loyal veterans.
They were arranged in the position of Vice Chairman of the
National Defense Commission.”
According to Germany’s “Daily Mirror", the support of China
is more critical for Kim Jong-Un and North Korea’s stability.
After Kim Jong Il’s death, Hu Jintao and 8 Politburo Standing
Committee members went to Beijing’s North Korean Embassy.
Offering condolences, they expressed clear support for Kim
Jong-Un. China may soon provide food aid to North Korea.
For the first time on December 21, a White House spokesman
acknowledged Kin Jong-Un as successor.
“During his lifetime, Kim Jong Il designated Kim Jong-Un as
the official successor. At present, there are no signs of change."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement to
pray for the North Korean people, and the US is ready to aid.
Clinton hoped the new leader of North Korea would lead the
country to a path of peace.
U.S. State Department officials also conducted “telephone
diplomacy" with North Korean diplomats at the UN.
South Korean “Central Daily" highlighted that the U.S
and China are vying in the “post- Kim Jong Il era".
Neither America nor China want to see instability in North
Korea increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula.
Meanwhile, they want to increase influence in Northeast
Asia, which includes keeping restraint over each other.
On December 22nd, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
stressed the hopes of the six-party talks member countries.
They hope the North Korean system could stabilize as soon as
possible, and for flexibility with South-North relations.
“The measures taken by South Korea show that there are no
hostile intentions towards North Korea.”
The “Chosun Ilbo" newspaper highlighted consensus in South
Korea to take this opportunity to improve North-South relations.
A senior South Korean government official said: “If Kim
Jong-Un system shows sincerity in reconciliation with us, we definitely can provide help."
“Yonhap" newspaper quoted an analysis by a South Korean
economic researcher.
It highlighted that there will be an increased possibility of
North Korea’s reform and opening up.
China is promoting an open-based economic cooperation
between China and North Korea..
South Korea will also provide $ 40billion worth of aid, under
condition that North Korea abandons it’s nuclear program.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Zhou Ping
