【新唐人2011年12月24日訊】朝鮮獨裁者金正日病逝後，外界關注他的兒子金正恩能否平穩接班，也有人不看好。不過，朝鮮官方已經確立了金正恩的最高領導人地位，金正恩也已經行使了軍隊指揮權。與此同時，韓國領導人表達了與朝鮮改善關係的意思，美國和中國則以朝鮮半島為棋盤，暗中較勁。
朝鮮勞動黨中央機關報12月22號發表社論，稱呼金正恩是「事業的繼承者、人民的領導者」。朝鮮官方通訊社則表達了朝鮮軍民將「忠於金正恩的領導」。《韓聯社》解讀，這事實上宣佈了「金正恩時代」的開啟。
韓國《朝鮮日報》23號報導，在公布金正日去世消息之前，金正恩以黨中央軍委的名義，向全軍下達了「金正恩大將1號令」，指示全軍立刻停止訓練，返回所屬部隊。
韓國《中央日報》披露，金正恩今年9月對朝鮮軍隊進行了改編，並已經在行使作戰領域的實質指揮權。金正恩撤下了全部一線指揮官，替換成對自己忠誠的30歲到40歲的軍官。
韓國統一研究院首席研究員鄭永泰表示，不要認為世襲體制會和原有體制存在太大區別，金正日生前已經為金正恩體制上臺打好了基礎。「上海復旦大學」韓國朝鮮研究中心副主任蔡建教授也這麼認為。
蔡建：「我覺得他順利接班的可能性還是比較大的，雖然他接班時間短，但是金正日在這之前也做了充分的安排，把一些重要的人物、非常忠心於他的人物安排在一些最重要的崗位上面，其中他的妹夫張成澤和吳克列這兩位對他非常忠誠的元老級的人物，安排在國防委員會副委員長的位置上面。」
德國《每日鏡報》指出，對金正恩和朝鮮的穩定來說，更為關鍵的是中國的支持。金正日去世後，胡錦濤等9名中共政治局常委，都前往朝鮮駐北京大使館弔唁，並明確表示支持金正恩，中國近期可能向朝鮮提供糧食援助。
美國白宮發言人卡尼21號在記者會上表示，「金正日生前指定金正恩為正式接班人，目前沒有找到任何變化跡象。」這是白宮首次將金正恩稱為接班人。
美國國務卿希拉里發表聲明為朝鮮民眾祈禱，表示美方已準備好援助朝鮮民眾，希望新領導人將朝鮮引入和平的道路。美國國務院官員則與朝鮮駐聯合國外交官進行「電話外交」。
韓國《中央日報》指出，美國和中國爭先恐後對「後金正日時代」的朝鮮實行介入政策，因為美中都不希望朝鮮內部的不穩定引發朝鮮半島緊張升級，同時也有擴大在東北亞影響力和牽制對方的意圖。
韓國總統李明博22號強調，六方會談成員國一致希望朝鮮體制能夠儘快穩定，未來南北關係完全可以做到「靈活」，「韓國所採取的措施為的是向朝鮮表明並沒有敵對朝鮮」。
《朝鮮日報》說，韓國政界在金正日去世後達成共識，將以此為契機改善南北關係。韓國政府高層官員說：「如果金正恩體制表現出與我方和解的誠意，我們完全可以提供幫助。」
《韓聯社》援引韓國經濟研究員的分析，隨著消極對待改革開放的金正日時代落幕，朝鮮改革開放的可能性也隨之增大。中國正在促進以開放為主的中朝經濟合作，韓國也曾以棄核為條件承諾提供400億美元的援助。
新唐人記者常春、李元翰、周平採訪報導。
South Korea, USA and China show goodwill as Kim Jong-un Exercises Military Power
After the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, close
attention is being paid to his son and successor Kim Jong-Un.
Some are not optimistic about a smooth transfer of power,
as the government appoint supreme leader for Kim Jong-Un.
Kim Jong-Un has also exercised his power to take military
command.
South Korean leaders have spoken of improving their
relationship with North Korea.
Meanwhile, America and China take the Korean Peninsula
as a game of competition.
The leading North Korean newspaper published an editorial
on December 22.
It named Kim Jong-Un as the “successor of the cause,
and the people’s leader."
North Korea』s official news agency also said North Korean
soldiers and civilians will be “loyal to Kim Jong-Un."
“Yonhap" news agency interpreted that this announced the
beginning of the “era of Kim Jong-un."
South Korean newspaper, “Chosun Ilbo," published an article
on Dec. 23rd.
Before announcing Kim Jong Il’s death, Kim Jong-Un issued
an order in the name of party Central Military Commission.
This “General Kim Jong-Un No. 1 Decree" ordered the army
to stop training and immediately return to their forces.
South Korea, “Central Daily" disclosed that in September
this year Kim Jong-un adapted the North Korean army.
He exercised a substantial commanding power over the
operational area, removing all the front-line commanders.
Kim Jong-Un also replaced 30 to 40 year old officers,
for those who are loyal to him.
Zheng Yongtai, Chief researcher at South Korean Institute for
National Unification, commented on this hereditary system.
Zheng believes the system will not differ from the original, as
Kim Jong-Il built a foundation for Kim Jong-Un, a statement
seconded by Prof. Cai Jian, Deputy Director of South and
North Korean Study Center, “Shanghai Fudan University".
Cai Jian: “I think a smooth succession is a high possible,
despite taking power over a short period of time.
Kim Jong-Il fully prepared, by placing persons loyal to him in
the most important positions.
Among them is his younger sister』s husband Zhang Chengze,
as well as Wu Kelie, two loyal veterans.
They were arranged in the position of Vice Chairman of the
National Defense Commission.”
According to Germany’s “Daily Mirror", the support of China
is more critical for Kim Jong-Un and North Korea’s stability.
After Kim Jong Il’s death, Hu Jintao and 8 Politburo Standing
Committee members went to Beijing』s North Korean Embassy.
Offering condolences, they expressed clear support for Kim
Jong-Un. China may soon provide food aid to North Korea.
For the first time on December 21, a White House spokesman
acknowledged Kin Jong-Un as successor.
“During his lifetime, Kim Jong Il designated Kim Jong-Un as
the official successor. At present, there are no signs of change."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement to
pray for the North Korean people, and the US is ready to aid.
Clinton hoped the new leader of North Korea would lead the
country to a path of peace.
U.S. State Department officials also conducted “telephone
diplomacy" with North Korean diplomats at the UN.
South Korean “Central Daily" highlighted that the U.S
and China are vying in the “post- Kim Jong Il era".
Neither America nor China want to see instability in North
Korea increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula.
Meanwhile, they want to increase influence in Northeast
Asia, which includes keeping restraint over each other.
On December 22nd, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
stressed the hopes of the six-party talks member countries.
They hope the North Korean system could stabilize as soon as
possible, and for flexibility with South-North relations.
“The measures taken by South Korea show that there are no
hostile intentions towards North Korea.”
The “Chosun Ilbo" newspaper highlighted consensus in South
Korea to take this opportunity to improve North-South relations.
A senior South Korean government official said: “If Kim
Jong-Un system shows sincerity in reconciliation with us, we definitely can provide help."
“Yonhap" newspaper quoted an analysis by a South Korean
economic researcher.
It highlighted that there will be an increased possibility of
North Korea』s reform and opening up.
China is promoting an open-based economic cooperation
between China and North Korea..
South Korea will also provide $ 40billion worth of aid, under
condition that North Korea abandons it’s nuclear program.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Zhou Ping
