【新唐人2011年12月22日讯】朝鲜领导人金正日17号突然去世。80后的儿子金正恩继任朝鲜最高领导人。曾经留学瑞士的金正恩是否会成为朝鲜变革契机？据报导，金正日生前，曾经希望安排金正恩与中共领导人见面，但是中共没有答应。作为朝鲜唯一盟友的中共将怎样对待金正恩政权?
金正日去世消息曝光后，朝鲜最高当局很快的向全国发布通告，要求全体党员、人民军官兵和人民“忠于尊敬的金正恩同志的领导”，确立了金正恩最高领导人的地位。中共中央也立即向朝鲜发去吊唁电文说，相信朝鲜人民会“在金正恩同志领导下”“化悲痛为力量”。由此，金正恩的领导地位被北京承认，电文明确启动了共产党国家相互确认合法性的机制。
原《百姓》杂志主编黄良天认为，中共的电文已经表明他会支持金正恩政权。因为中共清楚，在这样一种制度下，只能依靠血统来延续独裁的政权。如果不是中共第一代领导人的后代执政，政权活不长久，中国也会走上这条路。
不到30岁的金正恩成为朝鲜最高领导人。有分析认为，曾留学瑞士的金正恩,思想可能较父亲金正日开明，估计这位80后新领袖，非常清楚北韩不可以永远在世界孤立，可能会逐步开放社会，鼓励外国投资。
而黄良天认为，朝鲜不会在短期内会发生大的变化，因为朝鲜国内环境封闭，民众被严重洗脑，国家内部缺乏民主改革的推动力。
黄良天：“我到过朝鲜，那个地方的民众被洗脑的程度，我们从这些现在金正日逝世阶段的画面我们看得出来，如丧考妣呀。还有一个，改造一个国家，或者改造一个政府很容易，但是改造民众的思维定势应该是很难的。他在这个环境里只能继承他父亲的遗志，或者他祖父的遗志。继续这种独裁。不管你在哪里学习，在这么一个国家里，离经叛道那是不可能的。”
“东南大学”法学院教授张赞宁则认为，独裁者的死亡往往会加速政治变革。
张赞宁：“我认为金正日去世可能会使朝鲜的政治改革会提前，会扫除一定障碍，可能对朝鲜的政治改革有一点帮助。因为民主是大势所趋。和平演变其实是不可阻挡的。你像苏联、东欧都是这种情况。所以当一个独裁者死了以后，多少是为民主进程扫除一定障碍。”
经济学家茅于轼也认为，金正日的去世对于朝鲜的发展是一个契机。原来僵持的国际关系会得到缓和。
茅于轼：“我想朝鲜有可能会开启一个新时代，但是也有可能会乱一阵。总而言之原来那个非常扭曲的制度会维持不下去了。”
《纽约时报》12月19号的文章说，金正恩缺乏领导经验，是否能够保证国家稳定，中国目前很难确定。中国可能要求金正恩进行有条件的经济改革。虽然，一些观察家认为金正日死后，朝鲜会发动民主政变。但是，中国方面会强烈抵制这种情况发生。即使美韩支持这类政变，但是中国才是深入朝鲜的国家，美韩无能为力进行干预。
新唐人记者秦雪、黎安安采访报导。
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North Korea’s Youngster Top Leader, a Chance to Change?
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died on 17th December.
His son, Jim Jong-un, born in the 1980s could be the top leader.
Kim Jong-un was educated in Switzerland, but would there be a
chance of reform behind Kim Jong-un?
It was reported that prior to Kim Jong-il’s death, he tried to
arrange Kim Jong-un to meet with the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) leaders, however, the meeting hasn’t been approved.
Being an executive ally of North Korea,
how will the CCP deal with Kim Jong-un’s regime?
Following the news of Kim Jong-il’s death, North Korean
officials announced that
the nation should be “loyal to Kim Jong-un’s leadership."
This seems to confirm Kim Jong-un’s top position.
The CCP immediately sent a condolence message saying,
“We believe the North Korean people can turn their grief into
strength, under the leadership of comrade Kim Jong-un”.
Thus Kim Jong-un’s leadership was recognised by the CCP.
The CCP’s message shows the communist countries’ mutual
recognition of its legitimacy.
The former People magazine’s chief editor, Huang Liangtian
believes that the CCP’s condolences shows their support to Kim Jong-un’s regime.
The CCP clearly knows that in such a system,
continuing the dictatorship is the only way to survive.
Without the CCP’s next generation ruling the country,
the CCP’s power will not last long; China will face the same issue.
The 20 something year old youngster, Kim Jong-un
will be the top leader.
The analysts believe that Kim Jong-un educated in Switzerland,
his mind could be more open than his father’s,
he should be very clear that North Korea will not be isolated
forever in the world, he could be more open and encourage foreign investment.
Huang Tianliang believes that North Korea will not experience
major changes soon, as North Korea is a closed country,
people are brainwashed, they have no motivation to move
towards a democratic society.
Huang: “I have been to North Korea, where people are
brainwashed, we can tell from the pictures of people’s reactions on Kim Jong-un’s death.
To change one country, change one government is easier,
but changing people’s minds is not easy.
Kim Jong-un lives in such an environment,
naturally to inherit his father’s way or his grandfather’s way.
No matter where Kim Jong-un was educated, living in such a
country, rebellion is impossible."
Southeast University law professor, Zhang Zanning, believes
that a dictator’s death will often speed up the political reform.
Zhang: “I think Kim Jong-il’s death may move forward their
political reform, they may remove the obstacles;
it will help North Korea’s political reform.
Democracy is the trend of the world.
Peaceful transformation is irresistible.
Russia and East Europe is an example.
Thus a dictator’s death is the removal of the
obstacles towards democracy."
Economist Mao Yushi said that Kim Jong-il’s death is the
chance for North Korea’s development.
The deadlock of international relations will ease up.
Mao: “This could be North Korea’s new era, it can also
be chaotic for a while, generally speaking, their original system will no longer remain."
The New York Times reported on 19th Dec. that Kim Jong-un
lacks the experience to be a leader,
whether he can maintain the country’s stability,
is hard to say at present.
The CCP may request Kim Jong-un to have conditional
economic reform,
although some experts believe Kim Jong-il’s death
will change the country.
However, the CCP will strongly resist changes.
Even with the support of the U.S and South Korea,
China manipulates North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea
will have less power to intervene in North Korea.
NTD reporters Qin Xue and Li Anan.
