【新唐人2011年12月22日訊】朝鮮領導人金正日17號突然去世。80後的兒子金正恩繼任朝鮮最高領導人。曾經留學瑞士的金正恩是否會成為朝鮮變革契機？據報導，金正日生前，曾經希望安排金正恩與中共領導人見面，但是中共沒有答應。作為朝鮮唯一盟友的中共將怎樣對待金正恩政權?
金正日去世消息曝光後，朝鮮最高當局很快的向全國發佈通告，要求全體黨員、人民軍官兵和人民「忠於尊敬的金正恩同志的領導」，確立了金正恩最高領導人的地位。中共中央也立即向朝鮮發去弔唁電文說，相信朝鮮人民會「在金正恩同志領導下」「化悲痛為力量」。由此，金正恩的領導地位被北京承認，電文明確啟動了共產黨國家相互確認合法性的機制。
原《百姓》雜誌主編黃良天認為，中共的電文已經表明他會支持金正恩政權。因為中共清楚，在這樣一種制度下，只能依靠血統來延續獨裁的政權。如果不是中共第一代領導人的後代執政，政權活不長久，中國也會走上這條路。
不到30歲的金正恩成為朝鮮最高領導人。有分析認為，曾留學瑞士的金正恩,思想可能較父親金正日開明，估計這位80後新領袖，非常清楚北韓不可以永遠在世界孤立，可能會逐步開放社會，鼓勵外國投資。
而黃良天認為，朝鮮不會在短期內會發生大的變化，因為朝鮮國內環境封閉，民眾被嚴重洗腦，國家內部缺乏民主改革的推動力。
黃良天：「我到過朝鮮，那個地方的民眾被洗腦的程度，我們從這些現在金正日逝世階段的畫面我們看得出來，如喪考妣呀。還有一個，改造一個國家，或者改造一個政府很容易，但是改造民眾的思維定勢應該是很難的。他在這個環境裡只能繼承他父親的遺志，或者他祖父的遺志。繼續這種獨裁。不管你在哪裏學習，在這麼一個國家裏，離經叛道那是不可能的。」
「東南大學」法學院教授張讚寧則認為，獨裁者的死亡往往會加速政治變革。
張讚寧：「我認為金正日去世可能會使朝鮮的政治改革會提前，會掃除一定障礙，可能對朝鮮的政治改革有一點幫助。因為民主是大勢所趨。和平演變其實是不可阻擋的。你像蘇聯、東歐都是這種情況。所以當一個獨裁者死了以後，多少是為民主進程掃除一定障礙。」
經濟學家茅於軾也認為，金正日的去世對於朝鮮的發展是一個契機。原來僵持的國際關係會得到緩和。
茅於軾：「我想朝鮮有可能會開啟一個新時代，但是也有可能會亂一陣。總而言之原來那個非常扭曲的制度會維持不下去了。」
《紐約時報》12月19號的文章說，金正恩缺乏領導經驗，是否能夠保證國家穩定，中國目前很難確定。中國可能要求金正恩進行有條件的經濟改革。雖然，一些觀察家認為金正日死後，朝鮮會發動民主政變。但是，中國方面會強烈抵制這種情況發生。即使美韓支持這類政變，但是中國才是深入朝鮮的國家，美韓無能為力進行干預。
新唐人記者秦雪、黎安安採訪報導。
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North Korea’s Youngster Top Leader, a Chance to Change?
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died on 17th December.
His son, Jim Jong-un, born in the 1980s could be the top leader.
Kim Jong-un was educated in Switzerland, but would there be a
chance of reform behind Kim Jong-un?
It was reported that prior to Kim Jong-il’s death, he tried to
arrange Kim Jong-un to meet with the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) leaders, however, the meeting hasn’t been approved.
Being an executive ally of North Korea,
how will the CCP deal with Kim Jong-un’s regime?
Following the news of Kim Jong-il’s death, North Korean
officials announced that
the nation should be “loyal to Kim Jong-un’s leadership."
This seems to confirm Kim Jong-un’s top position.
The CCP immediately sent a condolence message saying,
“We believe the North Korean people can turn their grief into
strength, under the leadership of comrade Kim Jong-un”.
Thus Kim Jong-un’s leadership was recognised by the CCP.
The CCP’s message shows the communist countries’ mutual
recognition of its legitimacy.
The former People magazine’s chief editor, Huang Liangtian
believes that the CCP’s condolences shows their support to Kim Jong-un’s regime.
The CCP clearly knows that in such a system,
continuing the dictatorship is the only way to survive.
Without the CCP’s next generation ruling the country,
the CCP’s power will not last long; China will face the same issue.
The 20 something year old youngster, Kim Jong-un
will be the top leader.
The analysts believe that Kim Jong-un educated in Switzerland,
his mind could be more open than his father’s,
he should be very clear that North Korea will not be isolated
forever in the world, he could be more open and encourage foreign investment.
Huang Tianliang believes that North Korea will not experience
major changes soon, as North Korea is a closed country,
people are brainwashed, they have no motivation to move
towards a democratic society.
Huang: “I have been to North Korea, where people are
brainwashed, we can tell from the pictures of people’s reactions on Kim Jong-un’s death.
To change one country, change one government is easier,
but changing people’s minds is not easy.
Kim Jong-un lives in such an environment,
naturally to inherit his father’s way or his grandfather’s way.
No matter where Kim Jong-un was educated, living in such a
country, rebellion is impossible."
Southeast University law professor, Zhang Zanning, believes
that a dictator’s death will often speed up the political reform.
Zhang: “I think Kim Jong-il’s death may move forward their
political reform, they may remove the obstacles;
it will help North Korea’s political reform.
Democracy is the trend of the world.
Peaceful transformation is irresistible.
Russia and East Europe is an example.
Thus a dictator’s death is the removal of the
obstacles towards democracy."
Economist Mao Yushi said that Kim Jong-il’s death is the
chance for North Korea’s development.
The deadlock of international relations will ease up.
Mao: “This could be North Korea’s new era, it can also
be chaotic for a while, generally speaking, their original system will no longer remain."
The New York Times reported on 19th Dec. that Kim Jong-un
lacks the experience to be a leader,
whether he can maintain the country’s stability,
is hard to say at present.
The CCP may request Kim Jong-un to have conditional
economic reform,
although some experts believe Kim Jong-il’s death
will change the country.
However, the CCP will strongly resist changes.
Even with the support of the U.S and South Korea,
China manipulates North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea
will have less power to intervene in North Korea.
NTD reporters Qin Xue and Li Anan.
