【新唐人2011年8月4日讯】大陆铁道部最近公布了一份财务报告，数据显示：截止到今年（2011年）上半年，铁道部所属企业总负债已突破2万亿元人民币。在“7.23”特大动车追尾事故暴露出中国铁路安全问题之后，铁道部的财务状况也越发引起人们的忧虑。专家指出，铁道部背负巨额债务，自身还债能力弱，有可能出现银行坏账，最终全民买单。
这份《铁道部2011年上半年主要财务及经营数据报告》刊登在“上海清算所”的网站上，由铁道部财务司制作完成。报告说，中国铁路企业总负债在2011年上半年已经首次超过2万亿元，负债率接近六成，达58.53%。
报告还显示，铁道部所属运输企业上半年营业总收入为3525.5亿元，盈利42.9亿元。但大陆《财新网》援引知名投资界人士贝乐斯（Barrons）的分析，铁道部上半年的利润并没有扣除铁路部门征收的铁路建设基金。据贝乐斯推算，上半年的税后铁路建设基金至少有300亿元，如果扣除这一项，铁道部上半年实际上至少亏损250亿元。
7月23号，甬温线发生特大动车追尾事故之后，当局在事发后仅数小时就宣布停止搜救，忙于抢修线路、恢复通车，激发了极大民愤。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院谢田教授在接受《新唐人》采访时分析指出，当局的这一做法也反映出铁道部财务状况不好。
谢田教授：“我觉得这件事情，从另外一个角度看呢，也体现了铁道部急于赚钱、还债的压力比较大。所以（有）急于还钱、急于赚钱这样一个心态，这个心态驱使之下，为了钱、为了盈利不顾人命，不顾人们的安全。”
近年来，铁道部大搞铁路“大跃进”，尤其是自2008年金融危机之后，当局将大批资金投入高铁建设，铁道部的资产负债迅速增加。而铁道部的贪腐更是让人怵目惊心，仅铁道部前副总工程师张曙光一人，就涉及贪污28亿美元巨款。
《华尔街日报》中文版报导，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)认为，动车事故引发了人们对铁道部管理方式的质疑，可能要过很长一段时间铁道部才能重新回到债市，他怀疑铁道部的业务是否能产生足够多的自由现金流，以偿还借款利息。
谢田教授也指出，因为事故，当局被迫把高铁的运营速度降低，这又加剧了来自航空、公路的竞争，而且这个事故让很多人越来越认识到大陆高铁不安全。
谢田教授：“我觉得这个还是会对铁道运营产生负面的影响，当然同时又会冲击到铁道部这么大范围的、这么大规模的投资和还债问题。”
据贝乐斯测算，铁道部今年（2011年）需要还本付息至少2500亿元，而它的经营现金流大约为2000亿元，存在多达500亿元的亏空。
王志浩和其他分析师则怀疑，大陆财政部可能会在特定情况下对铁道部进行政府注资、来插手干预。
谢田教授：“它（铁道部）能不能偿还这个利息，这个是人关注的问题。如果不能偿还的话，这些国企的债务变成烂账、变成烂债以后，最后还是由国库来充装的话，实际上，就成为负担转嫁到老百姓头上。”
大陆知名财经评论人吴知逢在博客文章《铁道部欠的2万亿怎么还？》中谈到，两年前，铁道部总负债才1.3万亿，债务总额急剧膨胀是因为高铁“大跃进”，而现在，高铁盈利遥遥无期，很难想像这笔债务该怎么还。
他指出，也许，最后买单的是你、我、他。
新唐人记者刘惠、李谦、王明宇采访报导。
Two Trillion in Bad Loans?
The latest Railways Ministry’s financial report stated that
the Ministry is over two trillion yuan (US$310 billion),
in debt by the middle of 2011.
The July 23 high-speed-train crash exposed not only safety
issues in the Ministry, but also its financial position.
With a massive debt and their inability to repay it,
the Railways Ministry is prone to incur bad loans,
which affects all the Chinese citizens.
The Railways Ministry Financial and Business Data Report
for the First Half of 2011 was published
on the website of the Shanghai Clearing House.
It was written by
the Finance Department of the Railways Ministry.
It suggests that China’s railways were over two trillion yuan
(US$310 billion) in debt by the middle of 2011,
a debt rate of about 58.53%.
It also stated that the gross revenue of the Railways Ministry,
in H1 2011, is 352.55 billion yuan (US$54.79 billion)
with a profit of 4.29 billion yuan (US$667 million).
China’s Caixin Net quoted an investment analyst Barrons
that the Railways Ministry’s revenue in H1 2011
included the levied Railways Construction Fund,
which he thinks is at least 30 billion yuan (US$4.66 billion).
If it is deducted from the total revenue, the Ministry’s
loss would be at least 25 billion (US$3.89 billion) in H1.
On July 23, a few hours after the high-speed train crash,
authorities ordered the search and rescue efforts to end.
Instead, they put the emphasis on getting the trains back
in operation, which only infuriated the public.
Dr. Xie Tian, from the University of South Carolina’s
Aiken School of Business, told NTD that
such behavior shows that the Railways Ministry
is very worried about its poor financial position.
Xie Tian: “It is a sign that the Railways Ministry is in a hurry
to repay its debt.
With such a concern, the Ministry was driven to pursue
financial profits while ignoring people’s safety and lives.”
The Railways Ministry has been rushing into railway projects,
mainly since the 2008 financial crisis.
As the authorities heavily invested in the railway construction,
the Ministry’s liabilities soared.
The corruption within the Ministry is shocking,
with ex-engineer, Zhang Shuguang, alone
embezzling 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million).
The Standard Chartered economist, Stephen Green,
said in the Chinese version of Wall Street Journal,
that the high-speed train crash focused public attention
on the management of the Railways Ministry.
He thought it could take a long time before the railways
returns to the bond market.
He doubts if the Railways Ministry
has enough free cash flow to pay its debt interest.
Dr. Xie Tian also said that due to the recent train crash,
the authorities ordered the train’s speed to be slowed down.
This only spurs on stiffer competition
among the railways, airlines and highways.
People are more concerned now about the
safety of Chinese railways, than ever before.”
Xie Tian: “The crash not only produced a negative impact
on the Railways Ministry, but also brought to light
issues related to investments and debt repayment.
Barrons suggests that the Railways Ministry has to pay at least
250 billion yuan (US$38.84), inclusive of the interest in 2011.
With the estimated cash flow of about 200 billion yuan,
(US$31 billion), the Ministry lost 50 billion yuan this year.
Stephen Green and other analysts say that the Finance Ministry
could intervene by injecting capital into the Railways Ministry.
Xie Tian: “People are concerned about whether the Ministry
can repay its debt in full.
If not, the debt turns into bad loans,
which in turn falls on the shoulders of the National Treasury,
and ultimately onto the Chinese people.
Chinese economic critic, Wu Zhifeng, said in a blog article
“How Can the Railways Ministry Repay Its Two Trillion Debt?”
the Railways Ministry’s debt, two years ago,
was 130 million yuan (US$20.2 million) and climbing,
due to the number of railway projects that were carried out.
It is hard to imagine how they can deal with this huge debt.
He said, “The one who pays in the end, could be all of us.”
NTD reporters Liu Hui, Li Qian and Wang Mingyu
