【新唐人2012年10月2日訊】中共國家統計局「服務業調查中心」和「中國物流與採購聯合會」發佈，9月份中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為49.8%，這是自今年5月份以來，PMI首次比前一個月回升。雖然，PMI微升到榮枯分水嶺的50附近，但有專家認為，中國經濟下走的原因沒有消除，看不出有回升的理由。
10月1號，中共喉舌《新華網》所發佈的數據顯示，9月份中國製造業採購經理指數PMI為49.8%，比上個月回升0.6％。
不過，「滙豐控股有限公司」上週六公布，9月份滙豐中國製造業PMI終值為47.9。一如既往，比中國官方交出的成績低。
美國《華爾街日報》分析，中國官方PMI比滙豐PMI顯得要積極的原因是，官方PMI更多的側重大型國有企業，而這些企業比私營出口商，受到當前經濟放緩的影響較少。「滙豐」PMI則更多的反映出私營出口商的情況。
經濟專家，美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田指出，一些外資銀行也在做中國製造業PMI調查，中共即使想造假，也不能太肆無忌憚。「匯豐」公布的數字比較客觀、全面。
謝田：「這個PMI數字，跟中共公布的其他數字一樣，都一定存在著各種程度上的造假問題。這個統計的誤差，或者中共刻意營造繁榮或者經濟恢復的假象，都可能造成這個數據的出現，這個基本來說不足為奇。所以，我們對中共數字基本上不能夠持相信的態度。」
另外，「標準普爾」亞太主權評級主管陳錦榮向媒體表示，預計，今年第四季度中國經濟將出現最為嚴重的放緩。他還預估，中國經濟不會出現強勁反彈，但第四季度之後，國內需求將會改善，經濟也將停止下滑。「滙豐」大中華區首席經濟學家屈宏斌在聲明中表示：「中國製造業增速可能正在觸底」。同時，新出口訂單加速下滑，就業市場仍然持續存在壓力。
但中國著名經濟學家茅於軾則不完全認同。他指出，目前中國製造業出現兩個問題，一個是存貨在增加，一是訂單的減少。
中國著名經濟學者茅於軾：「這兩個消息都不是好消息。我認為收縮還沒有到底，我的估計。」
實際上，中國經濟去年下半年就開始往下走。茅於軾指出，中國經濟下滑的根本原因目前還沒有去掉。主要是2008年大量投資的項目，現在一個個都已建設完成，但建成後不能賺錢，很多項目還賠錢，造成了金融相對緊張。
茅於軾：「另外，歐盟的問題一直沒有解決，我們的出口一直在下降﹔國內的金融業，說是要改善，沒有重大變化﹔壟斷行業利潤還是很高，民營企業還是困難。這些情況沒有改變，中國經濟要見底、回升，不大可能﹔我看不出有見底、回升的理由。」
謝田也認為，中國經濟低迷、衰退會繼續持續一段時間。他說，中國製造業會不會有所改進，決定於中國經濟結構、制度上的問題、弊端是否已得到解決。
謝田：「那我們知道，中共主要依賴的出口市場，歐洲也好，美國也好，經濟上都沒有很大的改善，而中國自己內需的問題也沒有解決，現在通貨膨脹問題依然嚴重，再加上中國社會、政治和體制上一些不安定的因素，現在看不出經濟會很快復甦的可能。」
製造業採購經理指數高於榮枯分水嶺的50，表示經濟增長擴張﹔低於50則表示下滑萎縮。那麼，從中共提出的數字來看，中國的經濟仍然繼續萎縮。
另一方面，由於中國的主要貿易夥伴需求仍較疲軟，9月PMI新出口訂單分項指數降到44.9，是42個月以來最低水準。
採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/李月
Experts Doubt China’s Purchase Management Index (PMI) for September Slightly Rising.
The China National Bureau of Statistics’ Institute’s Services
Survey Center and Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) made an announced recently.
In September 2012, China’s manufacturing sector
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.8%.
This was the first rebound over
the previous month since May 2012.
Although the PMI is close to 50%, some experts
believe that an economic slow-down is still possible.
They cannot understand the reason for the rebound.
On October 1, Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
state media Xinhua Net reported that
China’s manufacturing sector PMI was 49.8%,
0.6% higher than the previous month.
However, HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) announced that
China’s manufacturing sector PMI was 47.9%, which was
the same as before, and lower than the official CCP number.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed the reason for the CCP
official number being higher than HSBC’s number.
The official number focuses more on
large-scale state-owned enterprises.
These are less affected by the current economic
slowdown. HSBC focuses more on private exporters.
Economic expert, Professor Xie Tian points out that some
foreign banks are doing a China Manufacturing PMI survey.
It is not easy for the CCP to fabricate numbers.
HSBC’s figures are more objective and comprehensive.
Xie Tian: “The CCP’s PMI number, like
its other numbers, are not true to a certain extent.
Error in the statistics and the intention to create an appearance
of economic recovery might have all led to this figure.
It is not surprising. We cannot trust the CCP’s number."
In addition, Standard & Poor’s APAC Sovereign
Ratings leader, Kimeng Tan commented to the media.
China’s economy will have the most serious slowdown in Q4.
He also predicts that China’s economy won’t have a strong
rebound, but it’s domestic demand will improve after the Q4.
Chief economist of HSBC China Qu Hongbin:
“China’s manufacturing growth may be bottoming out.”
Meanwhile, new export orders declined at a faster pace,
and there are still pressures in the job market.
Renowned Chinese economist Mao Yushi thinks differently.
He points out that there are two problems in China’s
manufacturing sector; inventories increase and order declines.
Mao Yushi: “None of these two are good news.
I do not think the slow-down has bottomed.”
In fact, China’s economy began to drop since Q2 in 2011.
Mao Yushi pointed out that the fundamental reason
for the decline in China’s economy is still not removed.
The main reason is that a large number of the 2008
investment projects are now completed.
However, they do not make money, thus
resulting in a relatively tight financial situation.
Mao Yushi: “In addition, the problems in the European Union
are not resolved yet, so our exports have been on the decline.
There is no significant change in the domestic financial sector.
Monopoly industries still have high profits,
and private enterprises operate with difficulties.
These circumstances have not improved.
It is not possible for the Chinese economy to rebound.
Personally, I do not see the reason to pick up”
Xie Tian also thinks China’s economic
recession will continue for some time.
He said that China’s manufacturing industry will not improve.
It depends on whether China’s economic structure
and institutional drawbacks will be resolved.
Xie Tian: “We know the CCP depends on export.
The economy in Europe or U.S. has not greatly improved.
China’s domestic demand has not been resolved,
and inflation remains a serious problem.
These, coupled with unstable social and political factors,
make it unlikely that the economy will recover soon in China.”
A manufacturing PMI higher than 50% indicates an
economic increase; lower than 50% means slow-down.
Even from the CCP’s figure,
China’s economy is still declining.
On the other hand, China’s major trading
partners still have a weak demand.
September’s new PMI export order index
dropped to 44.9%, the lowest in 42 months.
