【新唐人2015年02月12日讯】有海外媒体援引香港中联办宣传部门的消息透露，中共总书记习近平的心腹、中共国家安全委员会办公室副主任蔡奇，日前秘密来到香港，可能会对中联办进行调整，预计会有高官下台，同时也显示北京对香港特首梁振英的不满。这则消息引发关注，我们一起来看看下面的分析报导。
中共国安委副主任蔡奇秘密赴港的消息，是由《博讯新闻网》2月10号披露出来的。报导称，此举据信是因为中央对中联办和香港特首梁振英不满，因此越过组织部、港台办、国安部，直接插手香港人事，预计会有高官下台。
这则报导在香港政界引发热烈讨论。有政界人士向《苹果日报》政论节目《壹锤定音》主持人李慧玲透露，将有比蔡奇更高级的官员，来港亲自收集民情。他还说，中央派高官来港，最想问的一个问题是：为什么九七（年）主权转移后，香港年轻人会有离心，甚至支持香港独立？
梁振英1月中旬发表《施政报告》时，曾点名批评香港大学学生会刊物《学苑》去年2月号封面专题——《香港民族命运自决》，直斥文章是“主张香港独立”的言论，认为值得警惕。当晚，港大《学苑》发表声明，批评梁振英敌视年轻世代，使施政报告大会沦为“批斗”年轻人的平台，要求梁振英收回言论，停止打压公民发表言论的权利。
李慧玲指出，如果习近平认同梁振英处理香港青年的手法，就不用派蔡奇来港。相反，阿里巴巴集团董事局主席马云，日前成立10亿基金助香港青年创业，外界一直视为有中央身影，显示北京想采取较柔性方法对待香港青年。
时事评论员邢天行：“王岐山讲了，反腐的目的是要争取民心，他们也意识到了，得不到民心的话，就不可能执政下去。”
香港立法会议员单仲偕：“香港政府可能在4月到6月之间，将(政改)决议案送到立法会去表决，这个决议案会在最后阶段要到港澳协调小组拍板决定，可能也要送到国家安全委员会，所以蔡奇来香港做一个秘密参访，我的估计，就是他要第一手的消息，第一手的资料去报告国家安全委员会。”
公开资料显示，现年59岁的蔡奇是福建人，曾长期在福建和浙江两地任职，与习近平有20年的上下属关系。
香港政圈一直有一种说法，指雨伞运动爆发后，北京不满梁振英及中联办此前谎报港人在中共人大作出香港政改决定后的民情，而且运动期间还企图开枪镇压占中人士，犯下陷习近平于不义的大罪。
单仲偕：“会不会要整顿中联办，我想这个可能是比较放大一点，但是过去一年实实在在发生了不少的事情，会不会将这个事情放到中联办的头上，也不是没有可能，因为不少的东西虽然是特区政府处理，但是中联办也有不小的影响力。中央如果要问政治责任，梁振英或者是中联办的负责人也是要承担部分的责任。”
时事评论员邢天行认为，习近平派心腹蔡奇到香港，主要是摸底，让中联办人员效忠习近平。
邢天行：“中联办的许多人，他们的背景都是中共派的，带有特工色彩的，尤其在前期渗透到香港去的都是跟国安系统有关的人，所以蔡奇被派往香港，是给这些国安以前派出的各方面人员一个强烈的信息，就是说，现在你的领导是谁，有这样的意味，也就是说，效忠的目的是非常明显的。因为在过去，曾庆红和江泽民在香港搞了一个系统，安插他们的人员在里面。”
也有分析认为，这次由蔡奇负责处理中联办的人事调整，是习近平打击江派的最安全做法。
邢天行指出，随着国内反腐往前推进，各方面逐渐开局之后，习近平会把一部分力量放在香港。在清除江泽民、曾庆红之前在香港布下的人马之后，习近平能不能适应香港的局面，或者采取什么措施，大家都在拭目以待。
采访/陈汉 编辑/陈洁
Xi Jinping Sent Trusted Subordinate to Hong Kong:
Signaling a Purge Within The Liaison Office?
An overseas Chinese media reported from sources at Hong
Kong’s Liaison Office about a secret visit to Hong Kong by
Cai Qi, a trustee of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) President
Xi Jinping
Cai is deputy chief of the Central National Security
Commission (CNSC) General Office under Xi Xinpping.
The move is believed to be a signal of upcoming personnel
adjustments among the Liaison Office’s leaders.
It also reflects Beijing’s discontent toward Leung Chun-ying.
The news quickly drew attention in Hong Kong.
Let’s look at the report below.
On Feb.10, Boxun news website reported CNSC General
Office deputy chief Cai Qi’s secret visit to Hong Kong.
The report said the move was believed to reflect discontent
of current party leaders toward the Hong Kong executive.
Beijing is directly interfering with staff matters of the Hong
Kong Liaison Office without going through the Organization
Department, HK and Taiwan Affairs Office and State Security
Ministry. It is expected high-level officials will be dismissed.
Hong Kong’s political circles discussed the matter.
Li Wei-ling, host of an Apple Daily online political program,
was told by an anonymous politician that Cai Qi’s bosses
will also visit Hong Kong to collect Hong Kong’s public views.
The source further revealed that, Beijing wants to know
why Hong Kong’s young people have turned against Beijing,
or even support the Hong Kong Independence movement
since the Handover in 1997?
In his Policy Address in January, Leung Chun-ying named
Undergrad, a student journal of Hong Kong University.
He criticized its cover story of February 2014 “Hong Kong
Should Determine Its Own Fate" as promoting independence.
Leung called the article “a signal to be alarmed at".
The same night, Undergrad official responded to Leung’s
comments, stating that Leung’s hostile attitude toward
Hong Kong’s young generation turns the annual policy
address into a platform of denouncing the group.
The journal demanded Leung retract what he said and
stop suppression of civil rights and free speech.
Li Wei-ling commented that, Xi Jinping would not send
Cai Qi to Hong Kong if he agrees with Leung Chun-ying’s
attitude toward Hong Kong’s young people.
Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma just donated 1 billion HKD to
support young people in setting up their own businesses.
The move is believed to be backed by Beijing.
This suggests the current party leaders tend to treat
Hong Kong’s new generation in a more moderate manner.
Xing Tianxing, political commentator, “Wang Qishan said
the anti-corruption campaign is to win public support.
The current CCP leaders know that their governance will
be terminated if they are not supported by the people."
Sin Chung-kai, member of HK Legislative Council, “The
Hong Kong government will possibly put the reform plan
to vote between April and June.
The plan has to be approved by the Hong Kong and Macau
Coordinate Group in the final steps.
It can possibly be reviewed by the CNSC as well.
In my opinion, Cai Qi’s secret visit to Hong Kong is to collect
first-hand information as reference for the CNSC."
Open data show that Cai Qi, 59, was born in Fujian Province.
He worked in Fujian and Zhejiang for a long time, and has
been a subordinate to Xi Jinping for 20 years.
A popular opinion among Hong Kong political circles is that
Beijing was not happy with Leung Chun-ying and the Liaison
Office for their false report of Hong Kong public opinions of
the White Paper after the umbrella movement broke out.
Leung also attempted to shoot Occupy Central activists,.
A serious crime that might have made Xi Jinping
be the scapegoat.
Sin Chung-kai, “Will there be purging moves at the Liaison
Office? I think now this is more likely to happen.
So many incidents occurred during the past year.
It is possible to call the Liaison Office to account.
The Liaison Office do have a strong impact on decisions
although those may be made by the Hong Kong government.
If Beijing wants to hold politicical people responsible, Leung
Chun-ying and Liaison Office heads should be on the list."
Political commentator Xing Tianxing said, Xi Jinping sent
Cai Qi to Hong Kong mostly to know the real situation there,
and have the Liaison Office officers pledge loyalty to Xi.
Xing Tianxing, “Many Liaison office officers have
a background from the CCP’s spying system.
Especially for those infiltrated to Hong Kong in the early
years, most of them are from the State Security Department.
Cai Qi’s visit to Hong Kong serves as a serious warning to
these people: ‘Who is your boss right now?’
The move is clearly a test to their loyalty because Zeng
Qinghong and Jiang Zemin set up the system and planted
their followers within it in Hong Kong."
Some analyst commented that sending Cai Qi to Hong Kong
is the safest way for Xi Jinping to strike at Jiang’s faction.
Xi will make staff changes among the Liaison Office.
Xing Tianxing said, as Xi makes more progress in his anti-
corruption campaign, he will focus more on Hong Kong affairs.
After eliminating Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong’s forces
in Hong Kong, what will Xi Jinping do next?
How will he react to Hong Kong’s situation?
The entire world is waiting to see the answer.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/ChenJie
