【新唐人2015年02月04日讯】中共官方日前发布2015年中央“一号文件”，再次聚焦“三农”问题，其中，保证人人有饭吃的粮食安全问题首当其冲。这个消息结合中共农业部不久前表示将启动土豆主粮化的战略，引发了民众的关注。有分析指出，中国的粮食储备出现了大问题。
2月1号，中共中央、国务院发布有关“加快农业现代化建设若干意见”的“一号文件”，连续12年锁定农业、农村、农民的“三农”问题，并提到中国农业面临重大挑战，如农业资源短缺、开发过度、污染加重等，再次将粮食安全列为首要任务。
不愿透露姓名的农业研究人员：“咱们这个政府搞的这个文件在我看来就是一个噱头，因为他们每年上，对农业真正促进了什么东西，没有。根本性的问题没解决，中国的农业不解决土地所有制问题，什么都是假的。因为你要经营农业，你必须要确保你的经营有持续性。真正的农业政策，核心就是土地私有。”
北京国情内参首席研究员巩胜利表示，中共的一号文件已经出了20多年，尤其最近12年更是每年连续出，原因就是每一个文件都打了水漂，解决不了问题。
北京国情内参首席研究员巩胜利：“一号文件就像中国传统说的狗皮膏药，每年都往上贴，偏又治不了问题。其实中国的三农，农民、农业、农村所说的三座大山，教育、医药、住房，一直都没有办法解决。有些不懂的人就说，看起来中共是在为农民年年做好事，其实是年年擦屁股，擦不干净。”
据了解，中共总书记习近平十八大后，曾多次强调粮食安全问题，他说，保障粮食安全是一个永恒的课题，一旦发生大饥荒，有钱也没用。2013年12月召开的中央经济工作会议，更是将“保障粮食安全”定位为经济工作的第一大任务。
而中共农业部也在今年1月6号表示，将启动土豆主粮化战略，土豆将成为稻米、小麦、玉米之外的第四大主粮作物。
凡此种种，似乎说明了，中共当局正面对粮食储备问题的压力。
学者胡靖在接受大陆媒体《南方农村报》采访时表示，根据对中央一号文件的解读，他认为，中国的粮食安全出问题了，而且农业部今年还将土豆列入第四大主粮，这标志着，中国的粮食储备肯定出现问题了。只是中央不明说，将问题摀住。
胡靖表示，作为长期关注粮食安全的学者，他知道问题是出在华北地区的水资源上。他指出，小麦的主产区在华北地区，但该地区的地表水不是被严重污染，就是被工业用掉了，而地下水资源有限，已经打到几百米深。土豆产量较高，而且抗旱，当局将它作为主粮，就是为了缓解粮食危机。
中共国家统计局去年12月4号曾发布公告，指中国2014年粮食总产量60709.9万吨，比2013年增加516万吨，粮食总产量实现“十一连增”。不过，统计局的这一数字引发质疑。
不愿透露姓名的农业研究人员：“产量都在虚报，统计数据有假，我们的农业实际上是在萎缩，现在大量的城市郊区的农田都被占用了，所以农业的危机、粮食的危机，包括其他各方面的农业危机都来自于我们没有有效的利用土地和合理的利用土地。”
国家级农业专家吴先生：“都跑到城里头打工去了，农村都没有人劳动，没有人干活了。最近几年主要靠进口，一个是美国和巴西的大豆，一个是美国的小麦和玉米。”
此外，针对人民币对美元汇率持续下跌现状，网络撰稿人“心路独舞”认为，人民币下跌可能会触发粮食危机。
据中国海关公布的数据，中国2013年的净进口量已创下六年新高，成为美国食品出口最多的国家。“心路独舞”指出，人民币相对美元汇率的走软，会推高进口粮食的价格，如何让14亿中国人不饿肚子，将是一个严峻的挑战。
采访/易如 编辑/陈洁 后制/舒灿
No. 1 Central Document Hints at Crisis of Food Supply.
The 2015 version “No.1 Central Document (the Document)"
once again focused on “three rural issues".
Overall it highlighted food security.
The Document ogether with the previously proposed potato
staple food strategy by the Ministry of Agriculture, critics
believe there is a huge problem with China’s grain reserves.
The Feb. 1, document sees the 12th consecutive year focused
on the “three rural issues", agriculture, rural areas and farmers.
It also highlights the challenges facing China’s agricultural
sector.
These include a shortage of agricultural resources,
excessive exploitation and worsening pollution.
Food security was once again a top priority
in the governmental policies.
Agricultural researcher (anonymous), “This document is
simply a gimmick in my opinion. It is issued every year.
But has it provided any concrete help? No. The fundamental
issue remains unresolved.
Without dealing with the land ownership, everything is false.
The management of agriculture takes sustainability.
The core of agricultural policies is the
private ownership of land."
Beijing political magazine lead researcher Gong Shengli
indicates that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has
issued the Document for more than 20 years, in particular,
for the past decade, it has been issued on a yearly basis.
But it was only because none of it
has actually solved any problems.
Gong Shengli, “The Document is like a sticking plaster.
It was issued every year but solved nothing.
In fact, education, medicine and housing are the three big
mountains blocking the three rural issues of China, farmers,
agriculture and rural areas. Many Chinese have been deceived.
They thought the CCP is doing good deeds for farmers
every year.
But in fact, the CCP is failing in clearing
up the mess every year."
The Communist leader Xi Jinping reportedly stressed
the issue of food reserves.
He said that to secure food is an eternal subject.
In the event of famine, money is useless.
In a Central Economic Work Conference in December, 2013,
“food security" was prioritized as the first major task
of economic work.
On Jan. 6, the Ministry of Agriculture announced potatoes
will be an increasingly important staple food along with
rice, wheat and corn.
In all, it seems to suggest the CCP regime is faced
with the pressure of food reserves.
In a media interview, scholar Hu Jing interpreted the
Document as a sign that food reserves in China have problems.
With the Agricultural Ministry’s promoting of potatos as
the fourth staple food, he is certain food reserves are at risk.
The Central is trying to cover up the problem.
Hu Jing said that, as a scholar specializing in food security, he
knows that the water resources in north China are the problem.
He explained, northern China produces wheat, but the surface
water in the area is either heavily polluted or used by industry.
There is very limited groundwater, and the well has gone
as deep as several hundred meters down.
Potatoes have higher yield and better drought resistance, the
regime pushes it as a food staple to alleviate the food crisis.
The Communist National Bureau of Statistics showed that
China’s total grain output was 607.099 million tons in 2014.
This is an increase of 5.16 million tons from 2013.
That marked 11 consecutive years of growth.
But, there is doubt about the data.
Agricultural researcher (anonymous): “The amount was false,
the data was false. Our agriculture is actually declining.
Massive suburban farmlands have been occupied
for other purposes.
The crisis of agriculture, food and other aspects has all come
from the ineffective and irrational use of the farmland."
National agricultural expert Mr. Wu, “People have all gone
to the cities. The rural area lacks manpower.
We have relied on imports for years: soybeans from the
United States and Brazil, and wheat and corn from the U.S.."
The RMB against the US dollar has continued to fall.
Blog writer “Xinlu Duwu" believed that the status quo
could trigger a food crisis.
She said that, according to data released by China Customs,
China has hit a new six-year high in net imports in 2013.
It has become the largest U.S. food-exporting country.
The weakened RMB exchange rate against the dollar will
push up the price of imported food.
To fill the stomachs of 1.4 billion Chinese people
will be a tough challenge.
Interview/YiRu Edit/ChenJie Post-Production/ShuCan
