【新唐人2015年01月12日讯】中共前党魁江泽民长子江绵恒“卸任”中科院上海分院院长的消息，连日来引发外界持续关注。尤其对于江绵恒“卸任”的真实原因，以及习近平是否会对江泽民采取进一步措施，成为海内外媒体和观察人士解读争议的焦点。
据中共官方媒体的报导，中国科学院上海分院在1月6号上午召开大会，宣布江绵恒“年龄原因”不再担任中科院上海分院院长。但外界普遍认为，江绵恒“因年龄卸任”的说法，明显牵强。
江绵恒曾担任中科院副院长，随后又兼任中科院上海分院院长，属于副部级官员。公开资料显示江绵恒生于1951年4月，还有3个月才到64岁。相对于中科院其他分院在65岁甚至7、80岁退休的前院长而言，近64岁的江绵恒，退休年龄明显被提前了。
对此，大陆军史作家、中共将领蔡长元之子蔡小心在微博上说，江绵恒是“花落了了，东山了了！”
时事评论员邢天行：“我觉得从种种迹象来看，江绵恒这个‘辞职’呢，当然是大家都知道了，所谓‘辞职’只是一个表现形式，他不可能主动辞职，就是上面的决定他必须要接受，他不接受也不行，那么这是一个非常重要的信号，就说明江泽民对他的袒护已经达不到作用了。”
那么，在前政治局常委周永康、中共统战部部长令计划相继落马的敏感时刻，江绵恒被卸去中科院上海分院院长，意味着什么呢？外界的评论说法不一。
一种观点认为，江绵恒被解职，也许就是江家“中靶”的开端。
中国问题专家、独立评论员李善鉴：“很明确的，这应该是对江家帮动手的开始，至少可说是一个先兆。”
刑天行：“因为江绵恒本身以前被誉为‘中国第一贪’，尤其在反腐的今天，其实很多人都在看着风向。将来是不是要动江泽民，江绵恒是非常关键的，因为他是江泽民的长子，如果说江绵恒他都能被拿下去的话，那么江泽民的地位就岌岌可危。”
而另一种观点则认为，习近平只是要削弱江泽民的影响力，只要江家能退出公共事务，就不会对江泽民动手。
但时事评论员刑天行指出，周永康、令计划、徐才厚等中共高官在落马之前，也有分析认为习近平不会触及他们，只是剪除他们的“爪牙”，但事实是，他们一个都没逃掉。同样，作为他们背后靠山和主谋的江泽民，也不可能躲过清算。
刑天行：“习近平要给老百姓一个交代，就是这几十年以来，中国的这个问题，包括这些腐败分子问题促成的根本原因，他想给民众一个交代，要去解决，要挽回民心，他不动江泽民等于他反腐败白做了。”
此外，在2015年新年刚过，江泽民率一家三代到海南东山岭游玩，期间由海南省委书记罗保铭等官员陪同。大陆多家门户网站在1月3号报导了这一消息，但仅仅一个小时之后，各大网站全部删除了相关报导。
紧接着海南官场地震，1月4号，习近平就任命亲信刘赐贵为海南省副省长，而江派色彩浓厚的原省长蒋定之卸任。这一变动又被外界解读为是习近平对江泽民的公开“打脸”和警告。
采访/陈汉 编辑/张天宇
Is Jiang Zemin The Next Target as Jiang Mianheng Resigns?
Jiang Mianheng is the eldest son of the former Chinese
Communist (CCP) Party leader Jiang Zemin.
He recently resigned his title as the president of the
Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai Branch (CAS).
The reason behind his resignation has
caused a great deal of speculation.
Media at home and abroad as well as observers suspect
Xi Jinping will take further steps about Jiang Zemin.
State media reported that CAS Shanghai Branch announced
Jiang Mianheng’s resignation because of his age.
However, the age excuse was not well accepted by outsiders.
Jiang, a vice-ministerial level official, was once vice president
of CAS and then the president of CAS Shanghai Branch.
Public information showed that Jiang, born in April 1951,
will be 64 years old in three months.
Since former deans retired at the age of 65,70 or 80, Jiang
is obviously taking an early retirement.
The Communist army history writer Cai Xiaoxin stated on
Weibo that Jiang is ‘the wilted flower, the defeated general’.
Commentator Xing Tianxin, “There are indications that
Jiang’s resignation does not reflect the true reason.
The resignation would not have been of his own volition.
It is the decision from above and he must obey.
This is a very important signal. Even Jiang Zemin’s
shield will not save him."
Since the downfall of former member of Politburo Standing
Committee Zhou Yongkang and former Minister of United
Front Work Department Ling Jihua, what does the removal
of Jiang’s post at CAS mean at this sensitive time?
There are various views.
One of the views is that his dismissal means
the beginning of the Jiangs being “targeted".
Independent commentator Li Shanjian “It is clear that this is
the beginning or a harbinger of the attack against the Jiangs."
Xing Tianxin, “Jiang Mianheng was formerly known as
China’s first greed.
In the current campaign of anti-graft, everyone is observing
the direction of the wind.
Whether or not Jiang Zemin will be hit,
Jiang Mianheng is the key person.
As the eldest son of Jiang Zemin, his downfall suggests that
Jiang Zemin’s status is very dangerous."
There is also the view that Xi Jinping only intends
to weaken the influence of Jiang Zemin and that
once the Jiangs are out of the public, Xi will not
target Jiang Zemin.
But Xing Tianxin indicates that prior to the downfall
of Zhou Yongkang, Ling Jihua, Xu Caihou and others,
there were also analysts believing that Xi Jinping will
not hit them but only remove their minions.
But the fact is that none of them were spared.
Likewise, as their patron and mastermind,
Jiang Zemin will not escape the liquidation.
Xing Tianxin, “Xi Jinping owes the people
a satisfactory explanation.
For decades, the root causes of the corruption ought to be
explained and resolved in order to regain peoples’ trust.
His anti-graft movement would be pointless
if he does not investigate on Jiang Zemin."
At the New Year, Jiang Zemin and his family, along with
Hainan Provincial Party Secretary Luo Baoming, visited
Dongshan Ridge in Hainan. Multiple websites reported
the news on Jan. 3.
But all relevant reports were removed
just an hour after the report.
Immediately on Jan. 4, Hainan officialdom experienced
a reaction.
Xi Jinping appointed his crony, Liu Cigui, as the interim
governor of Hainan Province.
Former governor, Jiang Dingzhi, also known to be closely
associated with Jiang faction, retired.
This personnel arrangement was viewed as a public slap
on the face and warning to Jiang Zemin.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/Zhang Tianyu
