【新唐人2014年12月02日讯】近期，中共央行频频吹风，明年1月份正式对外公布存款保险制度。不过，这个在西方已经流行了80年的制度，在中国是否能行得通，受到专家质疑。有专家甚至认为，存款保险制度，可能给中国经济引入更大风险。我们来看看这种说法是怎么来的。
所谓存款保险制度，是指银行作为投保人，按一定存款比例向保险机构缴纳保险费，如果有银行发生经营危机或面临破产倒闭时，保险机构将提供财务救助，或直接向存款人支付部分或全部存款。
据大陆《新京报》报导，中共央行目前正在安排有关存款保险制度的实施工作，预计在明年1月份正式对外发布，此前央行高层已经多次吹风。有央行人士透露，央行可能为98%的储户提供保险。专家分析，最大赔付额可能为50万元人民币。
银行人士表示，一旦存款保险制度建立，储户需要把银行当作一般企业来看待，经营得不好照样关门﹔其次,储户需要把大额存款分开存放。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“办了存款保险，银行倒闭了，这个钱能不能老百姓真正拿到，我表示怀疑，老百姓存的钱已经都大于银行里面的钱了，那这个钱从哪里来？国家要不要负担？因为你是国家的银行，国家资本。”
银行存款保险制度最先起源于美国，1933年，美国成立了首家为银行存款保险的政府机构，1934年新年开始，美国正式实施联邦存款保险制度。目前全球已经有113个国家建立了存款保险制度。
中国1993年首次提出存款保险制度，但一度被长期搁置。2012年开始，央行重新数度吹风称，中国推行存款保险制度的时机已经成熟。
《华尔街日报》评论说，央行这种明确表态，给长久以来一直暗中受到政府完全支持的银行系统，引入了风险概念。专家和银行界人士称，储户可能会因此把存款转向国有银行，因为这些银行规模庞大，不会倒闭。而国有银行，主要将贷款投入被称为“僵尸”的大型国有企业。
清华大学经济学教授杨斌曾经告诉《新唐人》记者，中国经济增长中的80%，来源于中小企业和民营企业。那么，存款保险制度的实施，就意味着这些为中国经济增长做大贡献的企业，获得的贷款将变得更加可怜。
中国社科院高级经济学家张明接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，存款保险制度，能提高存款投资者的信心，不过可能给经济引入更大风险。
旅美经济评论家马杰森：“有一个可能性，供需是需要消费来刺激，大家都把钱都放银行里，会不会内需的刺激就有所不够？”
巩胜利：“保险本来就是个中间环节，它不起任何关键作用，而且这种模式对新经济来讲没有什么特别的好处，它占用了钱以后，等于是又有一个消耗资本能量的一个过程，你转过来转过去，怎么不使它的成本更高？而且它的功能也好，它的作用也好都大打折扣。中间环节它有多大的漏洞啊，增加了漏洞的空间和机会。”
央行官员透露，所有大大小小的银行，都必须支付一笔费用给央行基金，来支付保险计划。
据了解，许多大型银行一直游说反对这个计划，认为这笔费用不必要的，是对盈利的打击，小银行也因为储户可能转移存款，而持否定态度。
那么，为什么在国际社会已经存活了长达80年的存款保险制度，引入中国却会备受质疑呢？
巩胜利：“（国外）它是用一种市场经济的方法来运作，它的风险就少了很多。像中国人治的这样一个社会，关键它不是法治的，人治对一切规章制度，可能都是画饼充饥，我要说的，这是很重要的一点。”
中共监管机构担心，引入存款保险制度，让银行倒闭的可能成为真实，在短期内会导致银行系统不稳定。而其他国家的经验表明，在存款保险制度建立初期，紧张不安的储户，确实把资金转移到规模最大的银行。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
Introducing Deposit Insurance Increases risk to China’s Economy
Recently, Central Bank of Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
constantly broadcast news officially announcing
the deposit insurance system for next January.
However, whether the deposit insurance system works
in China or not, is questioned by the experts,
although this system has been implemented
in the West for over 80 years.
Some experts even believe that the deposit insurance system
will probably bring greater risks to the Chinese economy.
Let’s take a look at the statement.
The so-called deposit insurance system refers to the bank,
as the insurance applicant pays the premium to the
insurance agency by percentage of the deposit.
If a crisis occurs with the bank or goes bankrupt, the insurance
agency will provide financial assistance, or pay part or all of the
deposit directly to the depositing customers.
According to mainlands “Beijing News", the CCP’s
Central Bank is currently working for the implementation
of the deposit insurance system,
and it is expected to officially release it next January
after the Central Bank executives have broadcast this
news numerous times.
Sources from Central Bank disclosed that the Central Bank
may provide insurance for 98 percent of the depositors.
Experts analyse that the maximum amount of payment
claimed, may only be half a million RMB.
Bankers say that once a deposit insurance system is established,
depositors need to look at a bank as a general business.
If the business operation is not good, then it will close:
secondly, a depositor will need to split a large deposit
to multiple banks separately.
Chinese financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli:
“Once the deposit insurance is bought and
the bank is bankrupt,
I doubt whether the claimed payment from
the insurance agency can really pay the ordinary person.
Because the total amount of money saved by the people in banks,
is greater than the assets owned by the bank,
where does this payment come from?
Shouldn’t the government take the burden?
These banks are state-owned banks,
and the state capital."
Bank deposit insurance system first originated
in the United States.
In 1933, the US government established the first bank deposit
insurance agency.
Since the first day in 1934, the United States formally
implemented the federal deposit insurance system.
At present, 113 countries across the world
have established the deposit insurance system.
China first proposed thissystem in 1993,
but it has been shelved for a long time.
In 2012, the Central Bank repeated several times that the time
for China to introduce a deposit insurance system is ripe.
“Wall Street Journal" commented that such a clear statement
from the Central Bank,
introduces the concept of risk to the banking system which has
long been secretly and fully supported by the government.
Experts and bankers said that depositors may transfer
the savings to the state-owned banks
because these banks have sheer size and will not collapse.
However, the state-owned banks primarily invest loans
in whats called “zombies"of large state-owned enterprises.
Economics Professor Yang Bin of Qinghua University once told
NTD reporters,
80 percent of economic growth in China comes from small-sized
and medium-sized and private enterprises.
So the implementation of the deposit insurance system,
means that these enterprises making dominant contributions
to China’s economic growth,
are more likely to obtain less and even smaller loans.
Mr Zhang Ming is a senior economist of Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences.
He said in an interview with Wall Street Journal, the deposit
insurance system is able to improve the investor confidence,
but could introduce greater risk to the economy.
US-based economic commentator Ma Jason:
“There is one possibility: the supply and demand system
needs consumption to stimulate.
If we all save our money in the bank,
will it be enough to stimulate the domestic demand?"
Gong Shengli: “Insurance has always been a middle link,
and it has no real crucial role.
Such a model has no special benefits to the new economy.
The insurance system takes up too much money
and once again consumes the capital energy.
You transfer the money here and there,
how do you not make it cost more?
This will greatly compromise its features and role.
The middle link has lots of loopholes, and it increases the
vulnerability of space and opportunity in the banking system."
The Central Bank officials disclosed that all large and small
banks must pay a fee to the Central Banking funds
for paying the insurance plans.
It is understood that many large banks have been lobbying
against the plan, and said that such costs
were unnecessary and also a blow to the profitability.
In addition, small banks hold a negative attitude to the plan
due to depositors taking deposits away from these
small banks to large banks.
So why is such a deposit insurance system surviving in an
international community for over 80 years, the likes of US?
It is strongly questioned for its introduction to China.
Gong Shengli: “(foreign) countries operate economy
in a way of market economy,
and hence the risk reduces a great deal.
But for a society governed by the rule of men in China,
the key is not the rule by law.
Under the rule of man, all rules and regulations may
be like pie in the sky. I have to say,
this is an important point."
CCP regulators worry that introducing a deposit insurance
system will make the bank failures a reality and lead to the
instability of the banking system in the short term.
But the experience of other countries, shows that at the early
stages of establishment of the deposit insurance system,
the nervous depositors indeed transfer funds to the larger banks.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZhongYuan
