【新唐人2014年09月01日讯】目前，大陆各地“救楼市”动作一浪接一浪，快到9月了，面对巨大的房地产市场新盘推出，和巨额库存，各地政府不但全面取消限购，有的甚至要求银行，降低第二套房贷首付比例。而房地产商各种促销活动也五花八门。专家指出，过去两年里，面对楼市崩盘，政府不断放水，使得他们对楼市泡沫破灭的分析，好像显得不准确，不过今年下半年，估计放水也不管用了。
大陆同策咨询研究部数据显示，截至今年7月底，监测的一、二、三、四线35个城市，商品住宅累计库存余量超过3万平方米，同比增幅39%，全国各大中城市普遍面临“去库存”压力。
以北京为例，“亚豪机构”数据统计显示，9月份北京商品住宅市场预计有39个项目入市，有望创下今年来的月度新高。其中不少酝酿多年的楼盘也准备入市。
9月北京供应大增的另一方面原因，是上半年大量房企没有完成销售目标，各项目不得不加快推盘节奏、调整定价策略，来完成全年销售计划。
而其地区也面临同样的情况，在香港上市的“佳兆业集团”和“招商局置地”，计划在下半年推出今年70%的项目。而长沙楼市在9月份有近40个项目开盘推新，其中纯新盘占开盘数量的69%。
另外，截至8月27号，近百家上市房企已经晒出了中期“成绩单”，其中98只地产股库存增加超过2,200亿元。
目前各地政府都在争相取消限购政策，浙江杭州、陕西西安、贵州贵阳等地，都了宣布全面取消住房限购。杭州更是要求人民银行驻当地机构，降低第二套房贷首付比例。
北京师范大学MBA导师经济专栏作家：“政策出台的话，会好一点点，但是并不能改变房价大跌的趋势，大家老百姓都知道房地产要崩盘了，毕竟市场的商品价格是由供求关系确定的，供过于求它就要跌价，这个趋势谁也阻挡不了的。”
业内人士认为，全国楼市大范围的“降价潮”即将来临，将出现20%到30%的大幅降价。实际上在8月中旬，北京已经首次出现了降价20%的楼盘。
8月28号，《新华网》刊登题为“一位房管局长称现在房子多得吓人！”的博文。这位房管局长给出了房价大跌的3个理由，除空房太多外楼市销售低迷，很多开发商都在悄悄降价出手也是主要原因，他透露称，最高的降幅已经达到50%。
大陆经济评论家牛刀指出，房价早就应该下跌，前几年经济学家唱空中国楼市，之所以不准，是因为每次房价下跌时，中共就采取各种方法救市，不断通过银行放水维护。
大陆经济评论家牛刀：“但是这种放水维护到现在放水没用了，现在的钱你只要放出来，人家就把房子卖掉，解套以后就逃到美国去了。最后买房的人是毁灭性的打击，进去一批死一批。泡沫太大了，不是一点购买力能够维持的。原来你买了以后，马上能够卖出去，现在你要卖出去简直不可能，到后面没有人接盘。它的风险在这儿。”
国内媒体报导，今年一月份，央行当月净投放现金1.79万亿元，1月末广义货币余额112.35万亿元，不但房价没有上去，而当月人民币存款却减少了接近1万亿。当时有分析认为，这是央妈用1月信贷数据，讲了一个天方夜谭的故事。而今年7月，又有1.98万亿元人民币存款消失。
目前各大房企都在加快跑量，促销手段五花八门。大陆房产老大“万科”在推出“全民经纪人”后，8月25号，又与“淘宝”合作，宣称“淘宝用户全年花掉的钱，都可以在万科直接冲抵购房款，最高可抵扣200万元”。央视评论说，“万科”这种变相降价销售，去库存化，“淘宝”和“万科”都是赢家。那么谁是输家呢？
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/舒灿
More New Houses With Many In Stock, Are China’s House
Prices Near Collapse?
Mainland China has been actively
saving the real estate market.
With more new real estate properties coming in September,
and the already large housing stock, local governments lifted
limitations on house buying, even requesting banks to lower
mortgage down payments on second house purchases.
Real estate developers have had
various promotional activities.
Experts say the housing market has been facing
collapse in the past two years.
Now the government interference have made
people question their analysis.
It will be hard for the government to cover up the crisis
in the second half of this year.
Chinese real estate consulting company, Tospur, published
data showing that 35 major Chinese cities have 30,000m²
(322917ft²) in stock as of July, a 39% year on year increase.
Large and medium cities in mainland China all face
high pressure of destocking.
Looking at Beijing, Yahao Real Estate shows data that 39
projects are expected to launch in Beijing’s commodity
housing market in September, making it the highest on
record this year.
Many of the real estates properties have prepared for years
to join the market.
A reason for the high house supply in September in Beijing
is that many real estate companies failed to achieve sales
goals for the first half of the year. They have to complete
the annual sales plans.
So they are promoting more properties
and adjusting the prices.
Other cities face the same situation.
Kaisa Group and China Merchants Land Limited listed in
Hong Kong plan to promote 70% of their projects of the year.
Changsha City of Hunan Province will have 40 properties
in September, and 69% of them are new ones.
By August 27, nearly 100 real estate companies published
interim results.
These show the property shares in stock increased
by over 220 billion yuan ($35.8 billion).
Local governments in China have lifted restrictions
on house purchasing.
These include Hangzhou of Zhejiang Province, Xi’an of
Shaanxi Province, Guizhou of Guoyang Province, etc.
Hangzhou government even told the local People’s Bank
to lower mortgage deposits for second house purchases.
Duan Shaoyi, Economic column writer and MBA instructor
at Beijing Normal University, “the new policy may ease the
issue a little, but can’t change the trend of the price drop.
People all know that the real estate is going to collapse.
The market prices are based on supply and demand.
When supply is more than demand,
nothing can stop the price dropping.”
Experts believe nationwide price drop will come soon.
20 to 30% slashed prices will appear.
In fact, Beijing already had properties with a 20% price
drop in the middle of August.
On August 28, state-run Xinhua published a blog article
“A Director of Housing Management Department Said
Houses Are Horribly Too Abundant!” In the article, the
director gave 3 reasons for house prices dropping.
Too many house supplies; sales slump; and many
developers quietly lowering their prices.
The director exposed that the biggest price drop
has reached 50%.
Chinese economic commentator, Niu Dao, says house
prices should have reduced down long ago.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tried everything to
save the market in the past years when the prices dropped.
Such as using banks to release more money.
Niu Dao, Chinese economic commentator, “but such money
releasing doesn’t work now.
Once you release money, people will sell their houses now.
Once people get out of trouble, they’ll escape to the US.
Those who buy houses last will suffer devastating blow.
Whoever buys will lose.
The bubble is too big, and can’t be supported by a
limited purchasing power.
In the past, you could sell a house soon after you bought it,
but now it’s impossible to sell it.
No one would take it. That’s the risk.”
The Central Bank released 1.79 trillion yuan cash in January.
The broad money balance was 112.35 trillion yuan by the
end of the month.
The housing price didn’t go up, and the deposit of the month
decreased for nearly a trillion, said Chinese press.
Analysis mocks that the Central Bank told a fantasy story
with the January data.
Another 1.98 trillion yuan of deposit disappeared in July.
All kinds of real estate companies have started to use
various promotion methods.
On August 25, leading real estate company Vanke Property
cooperated with leading online shopping website Taobao.
They said all expense at Taobao can substitute for payment
of houses at Vanke Property by up to 2 million yuan.
The Chinese Central Television comments that it’s
a win-win method for both Vanke and Taobao.
However, who is going to lose?
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/SuChan
