【新唐人2014年08月26日讯】中共官场有一句口头禅“上有政策，下有对策”。在习近平式打虎不断推进的过程中，老虎和苍蝇们，也不断的做出抵抗。近期，有大陆的“制度反腐专家”，提出“大老虎”会用四种形式反扑，引发议论。
在周永康被立案审查的三天后，大陆各大门户网站在显着位置以《反腐要提防“大老虎”们联手反扑》为题，推出中山大学党史党建研究所所长郭文亮的文章，指出“大老虎”们为保护既得利益，一定会顽抗甚至联手反扑。
被大陆媒体称为“制度反腐专家”的郭文亮预计，“大老虎”的反扑，会以四种形式出现：第一、寻找更高的“后台”保护自己﹔第二、借口“影响党的形象”“影响安定团结”，向查处活动施加压力﹔第三、用对手或更高层官员的腐败线索做要挟﹔第四、联合党内相关利益者，以莫须有的罪名打击反腐的人，压制反腐。
时事评论员夏小强：“这四种形式实质上一直在进行。第一种他说，老虎寻找更高的后台保护自己。那确实是这样的，因为在习近平阵营查处江泽民集团的过程中，这种腐败官员一直在不停的要抬出来江泽民，来阻挠这种反腐。”
夏小强认为，第二种形式，主要体现在江系势力掌控的国内外媒体，不断发出所谓的反腐可能“影响党”“影响安定团结”的说法。而第三种形式，则是可以从江系向海外媒体释放习近平，温家宝等人所谓的“家族贪腐”的行动中得到印证。
夏小强：“第四就是联合党内相关利益，打击反腐。这个指的是什么呢？江泽民阵营一直向外界释放出，除了江泽民集团之外的一些家族的所谓贪腐资讯，包括释放出李鹏，释放出一些太子党家族的一些资讯，来造成联手他们，来对抗习近平反腐的这种行动。”
既然一路打虎到周永康，这些反扑形式都一直在进行，那么刚把周永康关进笼子，媒体上为什么又出现“反扑论”？尤其是《人民日报》官方微信公号在8月4号，发布了郭文亮这篇文章的主要观点，被外界视为释放出某种信号。
美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编辑伍凡分析，郭文亮说的这些“反扑”老虎，实际只是中小型老虎，避开了“大老虎”。
美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编辑伍凡：“这些现象都存在。问题就是看你现在反腐是怎么反法？往哪个方向反？现在他的文章里提到是向下发展，没有向中央政治局常委方向发展。那就是说，把现在反腐的方向往下降、往下伸。这样的话，这批人跟老百姓具体接触的更多、民愤更大、更多。所以他用这个办法呢，来获取民心。”
时事评论员夏小强指出，目前大陆媒体的某些论调，其实正是江系“反扑”的一种手段。
夏小强：“另外他们进行反扑，博弈的一个具体手段，是运用现有的、江泽民集团在台面上的，掌控权力的张德江和刘云山。特别是刘云山掌控了中共的宣传部门的权力来对抗习近平。”
就在大陆媒体就“老虎反扑论”热议的时候，8月23日，中纪委发布周案后首个“打虎”消息，两名山西省委常委陈川平、聂春玉在一天之内被调查。似乎“打虎”并没有理会媒体的各种论调。
不过，伍凡指出，目前的“反腐”只是治标不治本，中间夹杂着派系斗争。
伍凡：“他没有一个制度化的全部来改革，走上一个反腐。这种仅仅是‘治标’，不能解决问题。那么这样做的话为了救共产党么。这共产党通过这个办法能救吗？我觉的不管怎么样，打虎也好、不打虎也好，问题的根源是出在共产党。谁养的这些老虎？是共产党养的这些老虎。”
伍凡认为，中共在过去65年里杀害了大量的中国人，目前还在迫害中国民众，这都不是“反腐”能够解决的，也是不能遗忘的重点。
采访/易如 编辑/尚燕 后制/舒灿
CCP Warns of Counterattacks By Tigers
The so-called “countermeasures against policies" is a popular
slogan within Communist officialdom.
Indeed, as Xi Jinping proceeds with the anti-graft,
( faithful to government)
tigers and flies are constantly fighting back.
Recently, the anti-graft expert proposed four counterattacks
from the tigers.
Three days after the announcement of Zhou Yongkang
facing investigation,
mainland media web portals have published Guo Wenliang’s
article, warning of tigers teaming up to counterattack.
Guo Wenliang is a professor in Department of Social Science
Education of Sun Yat-sen University.
He stated, tigers will be recalcitrant or uncooperative,
thus teaming up to fight back for their own vested interests.
Mainland media refer Guo Wenliang as the expert
in the anti-graft system.
He anticipated the four counterattacks from the big tigers.
First, find a stronger supporter for protection;
Second, exert pressure to the investigators with the excuse
to maintain “party image" and “stability and unity";
Third, blackmail with corruption and clues of the opponents
or even the more senior officials;
Fourth, attack and suppress the corruption with trumped-up
charges by working with relevant stakeholders in the party.
Commentator Xia Xiaoqiang: “These four countermeasures
have been utilised at all times.
The first measure of seeking stronger background for
protection has been taking place.
Jiang Zemin and his cronies, have often counterattacked
Xi Jinping’s camp,
attempting to thwart the anti-corruption campaign."
Xia Xiaoqiang believes the second countermeasure utilised
by the Jiang faction,
is in controlling media both at home and abroad, publicising
the damage caused by the anti-corruption movement
to the party and stability and unity.
The third countermeasure, has been to expose “family corruption"
within the families of Xi Jinping and Wen Jiabao
to overseas media.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “The fourth is to unite relevant interest groups
within the party to fight against the anti-graft campaign.
For instance, Jiang faction has been releasing corrupt
information of people outside of Jiang’s faction, such as
Li Peng and other princeling’ families.
That will push them to work together to fight against
Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign."
Given that hitting the tigers has reached Zhou Yongkang,
and these counterattacks have been conducted,
why are the media publicising these counterattacks?
It is analysed that in particular, People’s Daily’s Aug. 4 report
about Guo Wenliang’s warning of the tigers’ counterattacks,
has unleashed certain signals.
China Affairs editor-in-chief Chris Wu analysed, Guo has
avoided the major tiger, by mentioning those counterattacks
to the tigers of small and medium levels.
Chris Wu: “These are commonly seen phenomena.
The problem is where the anti-graft is going.
He mentioned the anti-graft is going towards the lower levels,
not the politburo higher levels.
That means the anti-graft is going down towards the society
where people are directly related to and have bigger grievance.
This is how Xi is trying to get the support of the people."
Xia Xiaoqiang points out some of the arguments the mainland
media publicised are in fact Jiang’s comeback.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “The counterattack is also manipulating the
existing power players such as Zhang Dejiang and Liu Yunshan.
Especially Liu Yunshan who is now in control of the propaganda
department which is used to fight against Xi Jinping."
Despite the various media arguments, two tigers from Shanxi
Province were hit on the same day.
On Aug. 23, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection,
sacked two Shanxi Provincial Committee members,
Chen Chuanping and Nie Chunyu.
Chris Wu notes that the anti-corruption, mingled with factional
struggle, is only a temporary solution.
Chris Wu: “Without a systematic reform, this anti-corruption
will not solve the problem.
It won’t save the CCP. I believe CCP is the root of the problem.
Who created these tigers? It is the CCP."
Chris Wu indicates that the CCP has killed massive amounts
of Chinese people in the past 65 years,
and it is continually murdering the people of China.
None of these can be resolved by the so-called anti-corruption.
Neither can they be forgotten.
Interview/YiRu Edit/ShangYan Post-Production/ShuCan
