【新唐人2014年07月10日讯】日前，中共官员在会议上表示，中国金融领域有五大风险点集中显现，其中以房地产资金链风险最为严重。业内分析人士认为，一旦某个领域风险集中爆发，就可能对中国经济走向造成影响。专家指出，房市崩盘将引发金融危机。
中共人大财经委员会副主任委员、经济学家辜胜阻，日前在中共人大常委会第九次会议上表示，中国金融领域有五大风险点集中显现，一是房地产市场拐点可能引发的金融风险。二是区域性的地方政府性债务风险较为突出。三是产能过剩领域可能引发的金融风险。四是影子银行中的金融风险。五是流动性错配的结构性风险，而流动性总量过多又和实体经济融资并存。
旅美经济评论家马杰森：“他所谓的，说的只是一个大家都能够看得见的事实，其实大家真正关心的是到底中国地方债务是多少，影子银行到底牵扯多大的比例，这些具体的数字其实是让国际经济学家或独立经济学家能够对经济发展做出更准确判断的东西。”
辜胜阻说，在5大金融风险中，房地产资金链风险最为严重。
据大陆媒体报导，今年上半年，一线城市住宅成交量暴跌三至四成，而北京的跌幅最高。截至6月26号，北京今年新建住宅合计签约22,782套，相比去年同期，下滑48.77%。签约套数和签约面积创下近9年来同期最低值。
据了解，今年上半年，广州全市11区一手住宅成交面积为382万多平方米，同比去年下跌30.4%。而《搜房网》数据监控中心统计显示，今年上半年，深圳全市商品住宅累计成交的面积和套数，同比去年上半年分别下降40.28%、和42.09%。
北京大学光华管理学院博士生导师王建国：“房地产崩盘的话，对中国经济非常危险，它会导致金融危机。”
今年初开始，中国的房地产企业破产消息不断传出。据不完全统计，仅今年3月以来，被曝光的这类案例就有10多起，涉及浙江、江苏、安徽、湖北、陕西、海南等多个省份。
而浙江奉化和杭州市的两家开发地产公司，因为贷款违约，不但在建项目已经停工，两地的相关部门还以“非法集资”的罪名，拘留了这两家公司的高管。
中国一线城市也同样发生房地产商资金链断裂的情况。如，身处上海繁华地段的“国际广场”项目，因为开发商资金链断裂，5月已经停工，闹市区的在建工地被法院封存。
央行副行长潘功胜在6月的一个会上表示，一个国家的国民，如果主要以住房的形式储藏财富，可能导致房地产泡沫破裂，甚至经济危机。
马杰森：“中共确确实实是成功的在过去十几年，把老百姓一直忽悠到房市和股市里头，因为其他的投资方式也没有，它会不会接着忽悠老百姓，接着用房地产作为投资方向。”
除了央行要求各商业银行及时发放购房贷款外，今年上半年，地方政府刺激房地产市场的政策也在不断出炉。
最近，武汉市房管局着手放宽本地居民第三套房，和外地人购买二套房的有关政策﹔还限制首套贷款利率不下浮的银行承接房贷业务﹔同时严禁开发商降价，如果开发商降价15%将会面临“谈话”、如果降价20%，则将停止网上签购。
房地产业，在整个产业链中的影响，非常全面，前端是原材料，如钢材、水泥、建材，中间产品是设计、建筑工程、装修，最后形成的商业建筑物业和住房，拉动着市场活动的方方面面。
财政部“财政科学研究所”所长贾康认为，政府不会坐视不动产业大起大落。
旅美经济学者马杰森指出，面对影子金融领域5大风险，最后中共一定还是会采取大量印制钞票的方式，逼迫全体民众买单。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/李勇
Five Significantly Risky Occurrences In Finance Trigger Housing Market, Economic Crisis
Recently, Chinese officials said in a meeting that the financial
sector is focused on five major risks.
The most serious risk is property capital chain.
Experts analyze that any outbreak would impact
China’s economic trend.
A housing market crash will trigger a financial crisis.
China-based economist Gu Shengzu said at the Ninth
People’s Congress that five major risk areas in
China’s financial sector have occurred simultaneously.
First, risks in the real estate finance market may arise.
Second, the regional local government debt risk
has grown more prominent.
Third, excess capacity in the finance sector may arise.
Fourth, the shadow banking risk may arise.
Fifth, the coexistence of a structural liquidity mismatch risk,
excessive liquidity and the entire funding of the real economy.
Jason Ma, US-based economic commentator: “What he said
was a fact that everyone can see.
Most concerning to everyone is the large amount of local
debt, and the large percentage shadow banking takes.
These real figures would give international economists
or mainstream economists a chance to accurately assess
economic development.”
Gu Shengzu says that among the five risks,
property capital chain is the most serious.
Chinese media reported that the housing turnover in first-tier
cities dropped by 30 to 40 percent in the first half of this year.
Beijing is the worst.
As of June 26, only 22,782 new residential home units sold
in Beijing, a decline of 48.8 percent year-on-year.
The sale of residential units and commercial properties
hit a nine-year low year-on-year.
Sources say that in the first half of this year, a 30.4 percent
year-on-year decline took place in 11 Guangzhou districts
selling newly built homes within a 3.82 million square
meter area.
A soufun.com statistic shows that in the first half of this year,
Shenzhen commercial and residential sales decreased
by 40 and 42 percent.
Wang Jianguo, Professor of Peking University:
“A real estate market crash will be very dangerous
to China’s economy and will cause financial crisis.”
At the start of the year, bankruptcy in China’s real estate
businesses was a consistent occurrence.
According to incomplete statistics, since March, over 10
bankruptcy cases occurred in Zhejiang, Jiangsu
and other provinces.
Loan defaults in two real estate companies in Fenghua city,
Zhejiang and Hangzhou city have brought construction
projects to a halt.
Executives were detained and accused
of illegal fundraising.
Real estate companies in first-tier cities also
encountered a capital chain outbreak.
In Shanghai, the Shimao International Plaza project came
to a halt in May when a developer capital chain fell apart.
The construction site was sealed by court.
Pan Gongsheng, deputy director of China’s Central Bank,
said in a June seminar that relying on home buying
as an investment could cause a housing bubble burst
and an economic crisis.
Jason Ma: “Over the past dozens of years, the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) successfully fooled people into
investing in the housing market and the stock market
because there are no other investment methods.
Will the CCP continue to fool its people and have people
invest in real estate?”
In addition to the Central Bank request for commercial banks
to issue home loans timely in the first half of this year,
the local government consistently released policies
to stimulate the housing market.
Wuhan Housing Management Bureau relaxed a third home
purchase policy on residents as well as a policy
for non-residents to purchase a second home.
The bureau also requested banks not to reduce
first mortgage rates to take a mortgage loan business.
Meanwhile, the bureau prohibited developers
from dropping prices.
Developers who reduce the price by 15 percent
will be given a verbal warning.
A reduction of 20 percent will cause the closure
of their online sales.
The impact on the entire real estate chain
has been comprehensive.
The front-end is raw material – steel, cement,
building materials.
The intermediate products are design,
construction projects, and décor.
The finished product is completed buildings and homes.
Thus, the real estate sector is linked to all aspects
of marketing activities.
Jia Kang, director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science
at the Ministry of Finance, said that the government
will not ignore the real estate sectors’ tremendous fall.
Jason Ma says that regarding the five financial risks,
the central regime would likely print a large amount
of currency, forcing the people to foot the bill.
Interview & Edit/Liu Hui Post-Production/Li Yong
